TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between LIVERPOOL v NAPOLI and MARSEILLE v TOTTENHAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LIVERPOOL V NAPOLI
8pm It’s the final Matchday of the Group stage in the Champions League this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have some cracking ties to enjoy. We’ve already had plenty of drama this season with Barcelona crashing out already, again at the Group stage, and we have an interesting night ahead. Most high profile games are just to decide the Group winner, but in the case of Spurs later that Group is so tight they could miss out! We start the evening with Liverpool hosting Napoli as a club in crisis. Another loss at the weekend in the Premier League, this time against Leeds, has left them sitting in midweek with just 16 points from 12 games. There’s no getting away from the fact that they have been terrible at the back this season, and although I’m sure the fans would have accepted not “challenging” for the title, there’s a chance now that they could miss out on a Champions League spot for next season too. Add that to the fact that they only have a very slim chance of topping this Group so they are likely to get a tough opponent in the next round. Things are not looking rosy for Liverpool, and you would expect the fans to turn on the American owners now – I don’t see Klopp coming under pressure but you never know these days in football!
Liverpool come into this game as the odds on favourites – currently trading 1.83 at the time of writing – but it would take a brave punter to back them with confidence at the moment. They did manage a 3-0 win away to Ajax last week in the Champions League, but the fact that they lost to Nottingham Forest and Leeds either side of that shows where they are at. The problem is pretty clear this season – they have been terrible at the back. Indeed, when Napoli beat them 4-1 in Italy earlier in the Group stage we saw what you could only call embarrassing “defending” from Liverpool that night. Although that is a long time ago now, Liverpool haven’t fixed their issues at the back. They conceded an xG of 2.44 to Nottingham Forest and even though they beat West Ham 1-0 prior to that, they conceded an xG of 2.63 in that game. Again at the weekend, the xG of 1.74 conceded to Leeds was high again, and Napoli are sure to get plenty of chances here. Napoli have been superb this season, and sit top of Serie A at the moment with some impressive recent wins. Apart from a 1-0 win away to Roma recently, they have been banging in goals for fun so this seems the perfect storm from Liverpool. They are conceding a host of chances, and coming up against a side scoring loads. Liverpool look very short at 1.83 and I’m happy with the home lay here – I fully expect Napoli to cause Liverpool a lot of trouble here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (Liability) Liverpool to beat Napoli at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivNap
⚠️ CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH ⚠️
MARSEILLE V TOTTENHAM
8pm Next we move to Group D as Marseille host Spurs. This has to be the most interesting Group heading into the final Matchday as there’s only two points between all four sides. It’s bottom v top here too as Spurs come into the final game with eight points and Marseille with six. It won’t be any comfort to Spurs, but they are assured of the Europa League spot at least. Despite sitting last in the Group, Marseille will be a very tough test for Spurs. It’s no surprise that we have an open market, and the pressure is really on Spurs. After some disappointing results in the Premier League recently crashing out of the Champions League would likely see a big negative reaction – we already had Conte storming out of press conferences! In fairness to Spurs, the late goal ruled out against Sporting Lisbon because of VAR would have been hard to take, but there’s no getting away from the fact that Spurs haven’t been good enough away from home recently. They grinded out a 3-2 win at the weekend away to Bournemouth, but that wasn’t without drama either because they were 2-0 down before coming back. Scoring the winner in injury time would have been a nice boost, but it still goes down as a questionable away performance. Before that game they were outplayed away to Manchester United and Arsenal – along with finishing the game with a lower xG figure than they created, despite winning, against Brighton.
If Marseille came into this game in better form, I think it would be a no brainer to lay Spurs but the Marseille form does make this game tricky from a betting point of view. Marseille are sitting outside the top four in Ligue 1 which we know is a relatively low standard apart from PSG. They are without a win in their last four in Ligue 1, losing three of those games. They had to play PSG in that run though, and they have been very unlucky. For example they finished with an xG of 1.77 in the 1-2 loss to Ajaccio who scored twice from an xG of 0.20. Then in the 1-0 loss to Lens they finished with an xG of 1.81 and conceded 0.59. Spurs started the Group with a 2-0 win over Marseille, needing two reasonably late goals from Richarlison and that probably highlights that there is a gulf in class between the sides, and indeed their domestic leagues too. For that reason I’m going to skip the Spurs lay and opt for Under 2.5 goals at 2.04. Spurs are struggling to create chances and could struggle here again – however I’m going to keep stakes low because Marseille need to go for the win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MarTot
⚠️ CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH ⚠️
