WEDNESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between REAL MADRID v CELTIC, CHELSEA v DINAMO ZAGREB and v NAPOLI and MANCHESTER CITY v SEVILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and match stats via FACTMAN.
REAL MADRID V CELTIC
5.45pm It’s the final day of the Champions League 2022/23 Group stage on Wednesday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have three interesting games tonight, and we kick the evening off with Real Madrid hosting Celtic in one of the early games. Unfortunately for Celtic, a draw with Shakhtar Donetsk last week gave them no hope of getting into the Europa League. They had to win there and get a result here, which was always going to be very difficult! They fell at the first hurdle though, and it’s fair to say that the Scottish clubs just haven’t been anywhere close to Champions League standard this season. Real Madrid come into this game as the heavy odds on favourites – they are currently trading 1.25 at the time of writing which is the joint shortest price of any team on Wednesday. The other side is Manchester City at home later. Celtic are always a better side in front of their own fans in Celtic Park, and Real Madrid already bossed that fixture to win 3-0 so it’s hard to see how things turn around here. I suppose the only positive you’d say about the Celtic situation is that they can play with the freedom of having nothing to lose while Real Madrid are under pressure to win to top the Group. Nevertheless, it seems this is a case of how many goals will Real score rather than will they win.
They do come into this game on a little poor run though. They had their first loss of the season last week away to RB Leipzig, and that has opened up the Group. Real Madrid start tonight with ten points on top, but RB Leipzig are just one point behind them on nine. While RB Leipzig are away to Shakhtar Donetsk, they will still be expected to win so Real can’t afford any slip ups here. They also had a setback at the weekend in La Liga when only drawing 1-1 with Girona. That met after doing the hard work and winning El Clasico, the gap is only one point now between themselves and Barcelona at the top of La Liga. Although they created an xG of 2.54 against Girona, they conceded 2.09 which is very poor considering Girona are in the relegation battle. Those two results will give Celtic hope, but it’s hard to see past a comfortable Real win here. Despite their two recent setbacks, they are still creating a host of chances in front of goal and you’d have to expect that to continue here. Celtic have shown they just aren’t up to this level, especially away from home, and Real can cover the handicap here. I will just reduce stakes given how many chances they have conceded recently, but the 1.65 -1.5 goals on Real is a very nice position.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Celtic at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaCel
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CHELSEA V DINAMO ZAGREB
8pm Next we go to Group E where Chelsea are in the comfortable position of being assured top spot and a better Last 16 draw. It will be interesting to see what kind of sides Graham Potter chooses here given Chelsea can afford to relax a little, and that makes this game interesting from a betting point of view. Chelsea come into the game as heavy favourites trading 1.35 at the time of writing but they got hammered 4-1 by Brighton at the weekend and Dinamo Zagreb actually beat them earlier in the Group. After that Thomas Tuchel lost his job, and that sent shockwaves around world football. It didn’t even seem that he was under pressure! On paper, there are multiple levels between the sides and Chelsea should win here – however they just haven’t fired this season and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.35. I wouldn’t include them in an Acca tonight either to be honest. The positive for Chelsea is they are obviously at home here, and most of their average performances have come away from home. Not only did they ship four goals to Brighton at the weekend they conceded a relatively high xG figure too – basically they were totally outplayed.
The signs were there recently for Chelsea though – they beat Red Bull Salzburg away from home but conceded a marginally higher xG figure than they created, and in was a similar story in the Premier League too. They beat Aston Villa 1-0 but conceded a whopping xG of 2.65 which, at that point under Gerrard, was the highest xG figure Villa had managed all season. Then they picked up a 0-0 draw away to Brentford, but again conceded an xG of nearly three times what they created. I am always fascinated to see the xG figures after a change in manager, and I feel at the moment Potter hasn’t really improved Chelsea. Their results have improved, and definitely the two wins against AC Milan are the eye-catching reslts, but the performances under Tuchel were very similar. Even though Chelsea haven’t been at their best, Dinamo Zagreb have been poor since beating Chelsea. They shipped seven goals to AC Milan over the two games, and then away to Red Bull Salzburg they conceded an xG of 2.53 and only created 0.65. All the signs point to Chelsea outclassing this Dinamo side, but we do know Chelsea aren’t a side to rely on at the moment. I’m going to keep stakes small and go for some nice odds – Any Other Home Win is 4.7 in the Correct Score market given all the chances that Dinamo have been conceding, Chelsea have a good chance of scoring four or more goals here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 4.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheDin
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MANCHESTER CITY V SEVILLA
8pm We finish the evening in Group G where Manchester City host Sevilla. As I said above, Manchester City are trading the joint-shortest price of the evening as they are currently 1.25 to beat this poor Sevilla side. However, what is sure to spice up the goal markets – we got news from Pep Guardiola on Tuesday that star striker Erling Haaland is still out injured and will miss this game. He hasn’t even trained with the squad, and their aim is to come back into the mix for Fulham – it’s probably likely he’ll start on the bench there but let’s wait and see. Sevilla have been terrible this season, they are already out of the Champions League and they sit in the bottom three in La Liga. Their fall this season has been remarkable – it looked like the top four in La Liga were on lock every year but Sevilla have very little chance of even making it to any European spot this season let alone the top four now. The most worrying thing from a Sevilla point of view has been their performances – it’s not like they are playing good football but getting unlucky. They have been playing very poor football – even some of their rare wins this season have been lucky. For example they beat Mallorca 1-0 away from home but only created an xG of 0.16 and conceded 1.85. In La Liga this season they are conceding an average xG of 2.1 per game, and their actual is lower than that so things could be even worse for them. When you are conceding figures like that, the last team you want to play is Manchester City away!
Sevilla will transfer to the Europa League after this game, and Manchester City are already assured of top spot thanks to their head-to-head record with Dortmund. They did have a setback in this Group when drawing to Copenhagen but all they needed was a draw against Dortmund last week to finish top. It will be interesting to see what XI Guardiola names here because we do have a very busy schedule before the World Cup. We have two more Premier League fixtures, and in between that is the EFL Cup third round in England too. I think he will take the chance to rest some of his key players here, but Sevilla have been conceding so many chances this season the second XI for City can still have a lot of success here. City hammered them 4-0 when they met earlier in the Group, and I’m happy to have a small bet on Any Other Home Win at 3.55 in the Correct Score market here. Sevilla aren’t going to sit back with nothing to play for, and that should make this an open game which will suit City.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciSev
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