DELL MATCH PLAY: We’re on to the single-elimination stage of the Dell Match Play and most of our money is still alive, as both Patrick Reed and Louis Oosthuizen managed to advance to the Round of 16. Several of the favorites advanced, as a matter of fact– if this year is any indication, the change to a “group stage” format has accomplished the goal of keeping some of the big names around until the weekend, which is something that tournament organizers were keenly interested in when they decided to alter the format prior to last year’s competition.
So sixteen players remain and the eventual champion will play four matches over the next two days. In other words, it’s time to find a comfy place on the couch and hook up the nacho IV– we’re in for a great weekend of golf. BETDAQ is offering markets for every match, of course, and there are some great values remaining in the overall market as well. Here are a few thoughts:
WIN MARKET
— Jordan Spieth (4.8) gave the hometown fans something to cheer about over the last three days, winning all three of his matches and looking very much like the guy who took the golf world by storm last year. He’s now overtaken Rory McIlroy (8.2) as the overall favorite, but he’s got a really tough match today against Louis Oosthuizen (19.5), who is undefeated as well after dusting Andy Sullivan 4 and 2 yesterday. Oosthuizen was one of our pre-tournament recommendations at 41.0 and I still think he’s a good value at the current price…
— Dustin Johnson (15.0) is another name to watch. He escaped a tough group after beating Jimmy Walker 2 and 1 yesterday and then nipping Kiradech Aphibarnrat on the first playoff hole (much to our dismay, as we had backed Aphibarnrat at 5.0 in that bracket), and he said afterwards that he feels much more comfortable with Austin Country Club now than he did at the beginning of the week. I’d rather back DJ at 15.0 than McIlroy at 8.2 or Day at 8.8…
— Don’t sleep on Ryan Moore (20.0). He’s got a favorable draw– Patton Kizzire in the Round of 16, followed by the winner of the Byeong-Hun An/Rafa Cabrera-Bello match– and he had been on a nice roll heading into this week, notching four top-11 finishes in his previous six events. Plus, his match play prowess is the stuff of amateur-golfing legend, as Moore’s stunning final year before turning professional was perhaps the greatest stretch any amateur golfer has had since the time of Bobby Jones…
— If you’re looking for a dark horse you could do a lot worse than Chris Kirk, who can still be had at a whopping 37.0 despite an impressive last three days of golf that included comfortable wins over Branden Grace and David Lingmerth. Next up: a very winnable match against Bill Haas in the Round of 16…
INDIVIDUAL MATCH BETS
Rory McIlroy (1.67) vs. Zach Johnson (2.3)
McIlroy is the defending champion and he’s certainly got more in the toolbox than Johnson, but he’s in for a fight today. Johnson is a tenacious match play competitor and he’s probably been the most impressive player in the field this week, winning all three of his matches without ever having to see the 16th hole (he’s only played 42 total holes in his three victories, which is remarkable). Johnson will be hitting first all day, which isn’t necessarily a disadvantage in match play, and he’s the better putter. Recommendation: Johnson at 2.3
Matt Kuchar (1.84) vs. Brooks Koepka (2.0)
As a former champion of this event, it’s no secret that Kuchar excels in match play. Maybe it shouldn’t have been considered an “upset”, then, when he made four birdies on the back nine yesterday to beat Justin Rose 3 and 2. Now he gets Koepka, who was 5-down at the turn to Danny Willett yesterday (eventually losing 4 and 3) and has limited match play experience. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.84
Jason Day (1.56) vs. Brandt Snedeker (2.5)
Day has won all three of his matches this week but his victory over Paul Casey yesterday was a bit peculiar, as Casey won the first two holes but withdrew on number 6 due to a stomach virus. While Day is undoubtedly one of the world’s finest players, I’m not sure he should be such a substantial favorite over Snedeker, who was incredibly impressive in vanquishing Charl Schwartzel 5 and 3 yesterday. Injury is all that has held Snedeker back this year, and he’s looked perfectly healthy this week. Plus, he’s one of the best putters on Tour, which is especially handy in a match play setting (admittedly, Day isn’t too shabby himself in that department). While this one could go either way, I’m having trouble turning my back on Snedeker at a price like 2.5. Recommendation: Snedeker at 2.5
