FEDEX ST. JUDE: While they won’t be handing out any gold medals or Claret Jugs this week, there’s plenty at stake for the elite 66-man field that will brave the Memphis heat for the next four days, starting with the $10.5 million purse and the guaranteed points and paychecks that will be awarded to every player who tees it up in this no-cut event. That, and not the allure of Beale Street and barbecue, is what has drawn 9 of the world’s top-10– everyone but Jon Rahm– and 48 of the world’s top-50 to a tournament that has been a fixture on the PGA Tour schedule since 1958.
Though the WGC affiliation has certainly added some shine to the proceedings, the FedEx St. Jude Classic has been a summer tradition in Memphis for generations, and the cause it supports– the St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital– is a noble and exceedingly important one. Though some great champions have hoisted the trophy over the years, names like Nicklaus, Player, Floyd, and Norman, this tournament’s true mark has been the one it’s made on the lives of thousands of children and their families. The tens of millions of dollars that have been raised through this event have had a direct impact on treating and curing chronically ill young people. Sometimes sport can be an unambiguous force for good, and this tournament is a shining example.
The course, TPC Southwind, won’t be a mystery to anyone in the field after playing host to this event for the past 32 years. A par-70 that measures a shade over 7,200 yards, it doesn’t kill the players with length, but with tight fairways, sticky Bermuda rough, small greens and water hazards in play on more than half of the holes, it’s no pushover. Unless it gets soft out there, as it was in the rain-soaked 2018 edition, when Dustin Johnson posted 19-under, there won’t be too many guys taking it deep this week, and the winning score should fall in the 10-15 under range. Southwind has a few clear birdie opportunities– the par-5 16th comes to mind, as well as the par-5 3rd– but for the most part it’s a grind out there, with numerous doglegs that force the players to put the ball in approximately the same spot off the tee and approach the small, firm greens with mid-irons. It’s a good test that produces a worthy champion every year– there’s no “faking it” around TPC Southwind.
Brooks Koepka, who triumphed here in 2019, heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 12.5, but there’s plenty of red meat to choose from this week, with guys like McIlroy, DeChambeau, Cantlay, and Hovland all available at longer than 20/1. As mentioned, this tournament has produced some first-class champions over the past few years, so this might be a good week to prioritize the top of the market over the long odds types, even though that can be tough with a field of this caliber, when even the longshots are credible players. I think I’ll be taking my chances with these three:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (32.0)- Though he’s yet to win this season, Scheffler has quietly put together a big summer, finishing 8th at the PGA, 3rd at the Memorial, 7th in the U.S. Open, and 8th in the Open Championship, where he opened with three sub-70 rounds before fading with a Sunday 71. After a couple of weeks off he should be fresh and ready for this final stretch that culminates in next month’s Tour Championship, and given his superior track record on difficult courses and his comfort on Bermuda greens, he’s a great fit for a place like TPC Southwind, with its demanding tee-to-green nature and firm, fast putting surfaces. He played quite well in his tournament debut last year, breaking par in all four rounds to finish T15, and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t improve on that performance and find himself in the mix this weekend. Scheffler is a terrific value here at better than 30/1.
Abraham Ancer (36.0)- One of the game’s most consistent players, Ancer has been inching closer to another victory lately, finding the top-5 in three of his past eight starts, including a runner-up at the Wells Fargo. He’s been striking the ball beautifully, ranking 7th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 23rd in GIR percentage, and, critically, he leads the field in approaches from 150-175 yards, a popular distance at the dogleg-heavy TPC Southwind. He played well at the Olympic tournament in Japan last week, breaking 70 in all four rounds to finish T14, and he seemed quite comfortable at Southwind last year, finishing T15 in his tournament debut. Ancer has shown the ability to excel in the biggest events and strongest fields, and rarely does he play a course that suits him so well. He’s a live one this week and a nice value at a price like 36.0.
Cam Davis (84.0)- If you’re looking for a longer odds guy with a hot hand, you could do a lot worse than Davis, the young Aussie who picked up his first career victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month to cap off a stretch that included 6 made cuts in 7 starts. Davis is an excellent driver of the ball, ranking 31st on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, so he should be able to put himself in position to succeed on the demanding Southwind layout. Like many Aussies, he does his best work on Bermuda greens, which should add to his comfort level at Southwind, and though he’ll be making his first appearance at this event, it’s worth mentioning that debutants have a good record here, with 4 of the past 10 champions getting the job done on debut. This tournament has produced big-name winners in recent years, but given his current form and price I think Davis is worth a roll of the dice.
