USPGA: The year’s second major championship gets underway this week from Aronimink Golf Club, a 98-year-old Donald Ross classic nestled in the West Philadelphia suburbs. In addition to the 1962 PGA Championship, won by Gary Player, Aronimink has played host to a Senior PGA, a Women’s PGA, three PGA Tour events (AT&T National x 2, BMW Championship), and several major amateur tournaments. It’s just the type of course you want to see hosting an event of this nature: demanding yet fair, and sure to produce a deserving champion.
Widely regarded as the least prestigious of the four majors, the PGA Championship was moved from its traditional August slot to its current spot in May seven years ago, in part to increase interest and excitement, with the thinking being that putting it midway between the Masters and the U.S. Open, generally a highwater mark in terms of golf’s relevance in the global sporting landscape, would pique interest and increase the event’s prestige. That seems to be backfiring a bit, however, as you’re hearing more and more rumblings about the scheduling move having the opposite of the intended effect; that is, it’s no longer “Glory’s Last Shot”, which was always the tagline when it was in August and the year’s final major, and is now just another tournament in late spring, with very little separating it from the Signature Events, the Players Championship, etc. But no matter– the fact remains that this event is circled on all the players schedules and remains one of their most important weeks of the year, by any measure. Legacies will be built this week.
The last significant men’s tournament at Aronimink was the 2018 BMW Championship, won by Keegan Bradley, who outlasted Justin Rose in a playoff. Scores were pretty low that week, with Bradley and Rose reaching 20-under and eleven players finishing at 16-under or better, but I think we’re going to see a different sort of golf course this time around. Tipping out at nearly 7,400 yards, Aronimink isn’t short by any means, and indeed the longer guys are expected to be at a distinct advantage this week because they’ll be able to play higher lofted clubs into the firm, knobby greens. Speaking of the greens, most of them have the distinct “upside down teacup” look that is one of Ross’s signatures, and depending on pin placements, they could act as the course’s primary defense. The players will also have to contend with extensive bunkering and U.S. Open-style rough, but it’s a scorable layout, and I do expect the champion to reach double-digits under par.
With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ludvig Aberg (19.5)- While Aberg has been outshined by the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Young, and, of course, Rory and Scottie this season, he’s quietly been playing some terrific golf and seems to be heading towards a big result sometime soon. His T8 at the Truist last week, when he broke par all four rounds and closed with a Sunday 66, was actually his second-worst finish since February, as he’s found the top-5 in 4 of his past 6 starts. He ranks 7th on Tour in strokes gained tee to green, so his ball-striking has been tremendous, but he’s also 6th in putting average and 9th in birdie conversion, meaning he’s really been elite in every facet this year…. he just hasn’t been quite as good as a couple others. He can do it, though — he can close — and I have a strong feeling that he’s going to break through in an event of this magnitude very soon. Aronimink seems like a great fit for his game: a straightforward layout where you have to hit it long and straight. Aberg does that just about as well as anybody. I’m very happy taking a chance on him at around 19.5.
Patrick Cantlay (55.0)- Though he’s not the easiest guy to root for, Cantlay has been a money-making machine in recent weeks and is one of a handful of players who absolutely has the ability, experience, and disposition to win this tournament. The knock on his career is that he hasn’t won enough, but he does have 8 PGA Tour victories under his belt, so “not enough” might be true if you’re comparing him to the top 2 or 3 players in the world, but the guy knows how to win. After a slow start to the season, he’s been on a bit of a heater lately, rattling off four consecutive top-12 finishes, including a T10 at the Truist last week. Long one of the world’s best ball-strikers, he ranks 12th on Tour in strokes gained tee to green (and that’s after three early-season missed cuts that put him in a hole with those stats), and that should translate very well at a meat-and-potatoes, long and tight track like Aronimink. Cantlay is a tremendous value at a price like 55.0.
Joaquin Niemann (130.0)- The collapse of the LIV Tour seems imminent, and one of its brightest stars in on the verge of being professionally homeless. That should provide a whole heap of motivation for Niemann this week as he tees it up in his first major of the year after getting snubbed by the Masters for the first time this decade. And it seems like good timing, as he’s playing his best golf of the season, with three top-12 finishes in his last four starts on the LIV Tour, including a 4th-place showing in Singapore and a T8 at LIV Virginia last week. He dominated that Tour last year, winning five times and establishing himself as the best on the circuit, so he undoubtedly has the game to not only contend in but win major championships. A victory this week would be career-altering for Niemann, there’s no doubt about it, and while that may seem unlikely since you haven’t been hearing his name much, I think that’s more a function of the “out of sight, out of mind” nature of the LIV Tour, and he’s very much undervalued and overlooked as a triple-digit afterthought this week. He’s too good a player for that.
