DAQMAN’S ‘SKY’ HIGH 4-1 IN BETDAQ RACES: Daqman followers had to wait until the BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton last night before the maestro struck a seam of form, starting with Norfolk Sky (WON 4-1), which he regarded as a big price in the small field.
THREE WINNING BETS IN A ROW: He then tipped Alutiq (WON 5-4) and went on to get within a neck of a win hat-trick through Tijuca (2nd 10-1 from 12.5 on BETDAQ, three points place). He made 25 points profit on the day.
458-1 BIG-RACE TREBLE BID: Daqman goes sky high today all right with huge Daq Multiples! He tips outsiders in the two big races of the day, the Kinloch Brae Chase and the Somerset National, and his nap at Wincanton was 5.7 on BETDAQ this morning. One treble alone would come to around 458-1.
2.20 Wincanton (Somerset National) Strangely, we’re going clockwise all day over the jumps, with Market Rasen, Ludlow, Thurles and Wincanton all racing right-handed, mostly on sharp tracks.
Both Rasen and Wincanton have been my local courses over time, and I have great memories of them. Both now have their Nationals, round (and round!) their tight turns, with sections to climb and finishes which are deceptive.
Wincanton’s is downhill but there’s a fence in the way! And there’ll be some tired jumpers after this 27 furlongs on heavy, so don’t be caught out in a late, late trade.
Red Rocco ran a cracker, second over 29 furlongs at Haydock but pulled up in the Welsh Grand National, obliged to carry 7lb overweight and facing the dreaded ‘bounce’ second run back.
Another seven-year-old, Samstown travels down from the borders with every sign that he needs this trip but he is less experienced than Red Rocco.
Monkerty Tunkerty didn’t quite last out in the furlong-further Sussex National but won a trophy on heavy at Wincanton a year or so ago over a quarter of a mile shorter than today.
A bigger threat, 8lb down the weights, is the Highland National winner, Flying Award, given a conditioning run back before a decent break.
Yellow Ball, who literally won a pot of gold (the Prix Pot D’Or) at Auteuil (2m 3f), is totally unexposed at today’s trip. Has done ‘nothing’ in England so far but gets his ground for the first time and Venetia Williams has won with 16 French-breds this term.
Nodebateaboutit, second in a marathon on heavy around this time last year, has had a run back. An unreliable sort, but would be dangerous off a light weight, if running to that form.
They say you need three good reasons for backing a horse, and one has to be the price. I suggest that twice a winner at a marathon trip and with this as target after a run back make two reasons. And the 11.5 Flying Award on BETDAQ is the third.
2.45 Thurles (Kinloch Brae Chase) In the last decade, this race has thrown up winners of the Punchestown and Cheltenham Champion Chases and the Punchestown Gold Cup.
The Arkle runner-up Baily Green – seven wins in a row as a novice – had Tipperary trainer Mouse Morris ‘lost for words’ when the eight-year-old was also second in the Champion Chase at Gowran Park.
Strictly by the book, he ran around 12lb above his then rating of 154 over a trip – today’s – that he hadn’t tried for nearly a year in getting close to the 20-times-winner, Sizing Europe.
That probably flattered him but he was certainly bettering his rating 3lb to 4lb on a line through the third horse home, the good yardstick, Rubi Light, and he’s been placed 11 times (seven wins) going right-handed.
Baily Green (7.0 on BETDAQ this morning) has one easy road today – the 30 miles to Thurles from his Fethard home via the M8 – but the market says that the opposition won’t make life easy on the track, with seven of the eight runners separated by only three points in the BETDAQ market.
On the official ratings, he has precious little in hand of Texas Jack on a line through Rubi Light, and Argocat might have finished in front of Texas Jack but for falling at the last at Down Royal in November.
But, of others close up in the market, Prince Du Beauchene, beaten a total of 92 lengths in three recent outings, has to bounce back, and Last Instalment hasn’t been seen for 704 days.
Quito De La Roque won this race last year, mainly thanks to Paul Townend who kicked clear from six out. He hasn’t been in much form since, and is another who must bounce back. So, too, Realt Dubh, without a win since 2011.
TODAY’S NAP: Bennys Mist (1.50 Wincanton) is better than the bare form, because Venetia Williams has persisted with the idea that he is a Grand National horse.
Maybe he will be one day but, as his record stands, if you delete the two Aintree efforts, and take out his first run back, you have form figures of 11 still standing since the start of 2013.
If nothing else, his Becher Chase appearance early last month should have taught him to respect his fences. Benny’s won four times on heavy (so clearly jumps best in the mud) and has a better than 62% record (win and place) going right-handed.
A tasty 5.7 best offers on BETDAQ this morning, as I write, so that ‘s my three reasons again. I’m sticking to my normal stakes but having a small flutter on DAQ Multiples which could fill the bank if they came off.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win bets staked to win 20 each)
BET 4.2pts win (nap) BENNYS MIST (1.50 Wincanton)
BET 4.4pts win RED ROCCO, and 2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) FLYING AWARD (2.20 Wincanton)
BET 3.3pts win BAILY GREEN (2.45 Thurles)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles BENNYS MIST (1.50 Wincanton) with RED ROCCO and FLYING AWARD (2.20 Wincanton) and with BAILY GREEN (2.45 Thurles)
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