PETRUS PACKS 11-4 NAP PUNCH: Daqman made a profit on the day from three winning bets yesterday, including the nap, Panama Petrus (WON 11-4) at Market Rasen, and a 16-1 place, Fuel Injection at Southwell.
29.0 BETDAQ-RACE SURPRISE? Daqman today analyses the four BETDAQ-sponsored ‘twilight’ races at Kempton Park, and finds his daily outsider at 29.0 this morning, ‘early mouse’ as he calls it. His nap is at Carlisle.
6.00 Kempton (£500 Free Bets At Betdaq Handicap) Two small fields among the Betdaq quartet of twilight races but both – 6.00 and 7.00 – are tricky tests in which all the runners have won one of their last two races.
Stables of four of the five overnight acceptors in this Free Bets sprint have had at least three winners in the last fortnight and t’other one, Conrad Allen’s yard, is 1-1.
His runner, Artemis, is one among a busy day of eight rides for Joe Fanning, split evenly between Lingfield and Kempton. But, in fact, he’s one of 13 riders doing the two.
The handy aid of the season so far – a hood – improved Artemis to win here a week ago, dropped back from 1m to 6f. Can she take a further drop to this 5f under the penalty?
Artemis certainly shouldn’t dawdle at the start. There are three front-runners to contend with! They can’t all lead but they could take precious lengths out of a hold-up horse early on.
On the other hand, if she can keep up, the filly could take advantage of the huge weight concession.
National Service beat only losers when he won the course. And there was only one other winner in the first five home when The Dandy Yank scored at Lingfield.
6.30 Kempton (Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange – Maiden Fillies’ Stakes) Very little exposed form, and some stables will be looking for handicap marks. But what we can expect is the three-year-olds to beat the older horses, and the top stables not to be wasting their time.
I’ll assume that Windlass and La Napoule will do better in handicaps and, with Richard Fahey having a modest Kempton record, with a first-timer by the sire, Jeremy, not very appealing, I take it the race is between Khatiba and Labise.
Roger Varian is 5-5 placed without winning on AW this year, so my choice is the Ralph Beckett Azamour filly, Labise. Jim Crowley has scored on both stable winners in the last six days, one of them here at Kempton.
7.00 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap) We’re not going to close your account if you win money! Winners are welcome. But you are welcome to have my job, if you think you can pick the winner of this!
Though BETDAQ offers the usual fantastic early-mouse value (104% total in the orange, as I write), there were just 1.75 points covering all four runners this morning.
Another seven-day winner with a penalty (like that Artemis in the 6.00), Pool House has to give weight all round and step up a furlong. Amahoro is up not one but two furlongs.
And the remaining pair finished first and second at Wolver, with a cigarette paper between them now at the revised weights.
I’ll go for the Sixties Icon filly, bred for further but with the speed to win a sprint and from a yard absolutely flying. That’s Amahoro for Mick Channon.
8.00 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Handicap) Another great list in the orange – so early! – with the odds adding up to only 106% in the offers I have before me this morning. So gotta get a starter position!
But just look at this handicap: only a 7lb spread for 80% of the field. Now that’s not much more than a couple of lengths in a sprint so, if the handicapper is right, look out for a blanket finish!
In such circs, what you hope to find is an edge that gives your horse a length or more that the others wish they had. Maybe the jockey (Luke Morris or George Baker?). Maybe the draw? Maybe course form?
If you can do better than the handicapper, good luck to you. I will content myself with my usual outsider of the day at massive BETDAQ offers for the hungry, early mouse.
Nelson Quay (29.0 as I write) is being ignored as a seven-race maiden, without his usual blinkers. But he’s been gelded since his last day and Robert Winston is booked by Jeremy Gask, a combo with a 2-3 record.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 4.6pts win ELENIKA (2.40 Ludlow)
BET 12pts win (nap) BRIJOMI QUEEN (2.55 Carlisle)
BET 7.5pts win BENEFIQUE ROYALE and 3.3pts win (stakes saver) COME ON ANNIE (3.25 Ludlow)
BET 11pts win ARTEMIS (6.00 Kempton)
BET 4pts win LABISE (6.30 Kempton)
BET 5pts win AMAHORO (7.00 Kempton)
BET 0.7pts win and place NELSON QUAY (8.00 Kempton)
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