‘OSCA’ AWARD FOR BETDAQ’S SIX DONCASTER RACES: It’s another great day of sport for BETDAQ, the people’s exchange, with six consecutive sponsored races on Town Moor today. Daqman’s nap? Oscatara.
MARCH MAGIC STARTS TOMORROW: Cheltenham and the start of the Flat are just over the horizon as BETDAQ hits March running with another great day’s sport tomorrow, including racing from six meetings.
HOW MANY BIG-ODDS WINNERS FOR DAQMAN? The answer is in the Daqman Library (touch the Daqman green icon and go down three places), as he drives 13-4 clear of Pricewise, 24-8 in front since he challenged the trade-paper tipster.
2.10 Doncaster (Betdaq £25 No lose Mobile Bet Novices’ Handicap Hurdle)
THE STATS SAY: Horses aged six and seven have won five out of six. There’s a tight winning weights cluster of 11st 1lb to 11st 7lb (five out of seven).
Not a successful favourite in sight, with nothing first past the post shorter than 7-1 in the last eight years. Win-and-place race.
THE FORM SAYS: Easydoesit was seventh in this last year off the same mark of 105. He was a CD winner in January (holds Ergo Sum and Danbys Legend) and you can ignore his run on soft last time: he hates cut in the ground. His best form is all in lower class but that applies to the rest of the field.
Lucinda Russell (Biggar), with form figures of 2201131 still standing, and Ben Pauling (Benefitofhindsight) – 11140 – are the stables in form. Vodka Red wears blinkers for the first time, Biggar gets the aid of cheekpieces and it’s Polstar’s first handicap.
DAQMAN SAYS: Biggar, down in the weights, and from a stable in fine form, looks win-and-place material, with the cheekpieces to help him concentrate.
The 10.0 I see on BETDAQ this morning is value for a horse that hasn’t been out of the first five in his last five starts and is back to the trip and ground that produced seconds over hurdles and in a bumper.
2.40 Doncaster (Betdaq No Premium Charge EBF Stallions Mares ‘National Hunt Novices’ Hurdle)
THE STATS SAY: Alan King is going for a training hat-trick in this after two long-odds-on winners, both second on their previous start, just like Bull And Bush.
THE FORM SAYS Izza Diva? No way is she a diva; she’s been beaten 427 lengths still standing in her four starts to date, and first-time tongue-tie has to pull off a miracle transformation. She was 150.0 as early as 8.30 this morning.
All For Lily, 57 lengths behind in her first hurdle, was 58.0, and Cinnomhor, who’s started 100-1, 125-1 and 150-1 in her last three starts, was 29.0 and drifting.
And since Wyfield Rose was 47 lengths behind Bull And Bush at Fontwell, we are in a match race – Free Thinking versus Bull And Bush – as could be seen in BETDAQ offers of tips-on the favourite and tips against her rival.
DAQMAN SAYS: You pays your money and you makes your choice. Both failures at Listed level, Free Thinking is already a winner at Ludlow, but the maiden Bull And Bush is proven at the trip. I’ll ‘cheat’ and put both in my Daq Multiples.
3.10 Doncaster (Betdaq £500 In Free Bets Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Hurdle)
THE STATS SAY: John Quinn and Dean Pratt teamed up to win this last year with a four-year-old bottomweight, just like Chebsey Beau. But, unlike Chebsey Beau, he was already a course winner that season.
When Nicky Henderson won it with Fourth Estate, that horse was landing a four-timer of, two each, bumper and novice-hurdle wins. Sign Of A Victory has won two bumpers but is a hurdles maiden.
THE FORM SAYS: Sign Of Victory ran well ‘over the sticks’ in good company at Newbury before an impressive jumpers’ bumper success at Kempton.
As in the previous race, only two or three may be seriously considered, though front-runner Verano’s first-time tongue-tie might keep him in the frame at the last gasp.
DAQMAN SAYS: Sign Of Victory, a shade of odds on as I write, has raced in better company but Chebsey Beau, in receipt of 12lb, was too big at 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning in a seeming two-horse race, with his stable maybe having plotted a similar trick to last year’s. Win and place.
At the time of writing, Chebsey Beau was better odds for a place than Sign of A Victory for the win. I’ll cheat again and put Sign Of A Victory in my Daq Multiples, giving me three bites of the betting cherry.
3.45 Doncaster (Betdaq Free Premier League Game Saturdays Novices’ Chase)
THE STATS SAY: Three winning favourites out of six but a mix of SPs from 11-2 on favourite to an outsider shock at 25-1.
THE FORM SAYS: Only one dunce in this class 3: One In A Row is likely to make it unlucky 13 in a row without a win but will take home £477 fourth-place money, all still standing. Maybe more if there’s a mishap in this novices’ chase.
But Oscatara and Croco Bay don’t usually mess about, so the pace should be good enough to provide a proper form result.
Croco Bay gave Peter Atkinson’s small local string its only chase success of the season when scoring at Catterick in December, whereas Oscatara and Simarthur are making their steeplechase debuts today.
Oscatara would bring the McCain yard its 39th success of 2013-14 over the bigger obstacles and Simarthur would be number 31 in a great season for the in-form Lucinda Russell.
DAQMAN SAYS: Oscatara, who can be forgiven his flop on heavy ground last time, is the one bred for fences and 3.15 on BETDAQ this morning was tempting.
Croco Bay, though odds on this morning, is 8lb behind Oscatara today on hurdles ratings and both should have too much speed for Simarthur (needs 3m-plus).
4.20 Doncaster (Betdaq 3% Commission Mares’ Handicap Hurdle)
THE STATS SAY: No four-year-old has won this but those to finish in the last eight years returned form figures of 2203. No eight-year-old has won.
There has been no winner below 10st 5lb. Favourites are 5-7. Trainer Renee Robeson (4-y-o Maypole Lass) won it in 2012.
THE FORM SAYS: Brijomi Queen seems quite versatile. She broke her maiden on today’s surface over today’s trip and was the ‘moral’ at Carlisle, beaten a neck giving weight to the winner on heavy ground over further.
The Uttoxeter winner Koolala is highly rated by Paul Webber, who reckons he can get her some black type. If so, I think it will be over further, as this is a daughter of Kayf Tara, but the stable is in good form. Webber has had only one runner finish out of the ‘four’ from his last eight starters.
Also going great guns is Neil King (form figures 31321), though Roja Dove has yet to show her winning Irish form in this country, albeit trying a trip too far and a Listed race.
As a 2m winner on the Flat, you’d think top-weight Pass The Time would need further over hurdles, but she got her high rating for back-to-back wins at 16f and 17f at Southwell and Taunton before attempting the impossible with a tilt at Annie Power in a Grade 2 on today’s course.
DAQMAN SAYS: Brijomi Queen, Pass The Time and Koolala have the stamina to make this a decent result, but which one has the speed on top of the ground?
Nicky Richards’ yard has had a virtual shutdown in the last fortnight (one runner in a bumper), so I can’t have Brijomi Queen, and Pass The Time has to give 10lb to Koolala.
We’ll take Webber’s word – and the 4.6 Koolala on BETDAQ, as I write – though I think we might see the real Roja Dove after a break: 11.0 on the Daq with the stable in such great heart.
4.55 Doncaster (Betdaq Value You Can Bet On Handicap Chase)
THE STATS SAY: Keith Reveley, who trained last year’s winner, Brave Spartacus, goes for back-to-back success with the veteran Robbie.
No worries: an 11-year-old won it in 2004 and topweights have scored three times in the last five years.
THE FORM SAYS: Robbie is 14113113 on good going, hurdles and chases, and has won at Doncaster, though out of form there the last twice with cut in the ground.
But it’s five weeks since the Reveleys had a winner, and this is Robbie’s step up from novice chasing to an open handicap.
He has to face King Of The Wolds, a class-2 winner at Wetherby in an all-aged handicap chase, albeit on soft; and Granville Island, who doesn’t seem ground dependent.
The track obviously suits course-and-distance winner Billy Cuckoo and his yard had a winner at Catterick on Tuesday.
Shadows Lengthen has been out of form but Michael Easterby’s stable has just hit a seam of success, with form figures of 334113.
DAQMAN SAYS: A value BETDAQ market (adding up to only 105%) has only about five points difference in the entire field.
King Of The Wolds (by Presenting) and Granville Island (a Flemensfirth) stand out as seven-year-old chasers with a future though, if Robbie can belie his stable form, he will give them a race on this surface.
Granville Island is game, as he showed at Haydock, got his jumping together last time at Catterick (holds Billy Cuckoo), and wins on all sorts of ground. I took 5.2 with a saver King Of The Wolds.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.2pts win and place BIGGAR (2.10 Doncaster)
BET 2.6pts win and place CHEBSEY BEAU (3.10 Doncaster)
BET 9.5pts win (nap) OSCATARA (3.45 Doncaster)
BET 5.5pts win KOOLALA and 2pts win and place ROJA DOVE (4.20 Doncaster)
BET 4.7pts win GRANVILLE ISLAND and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) KING OF THE WOLDS (4.55 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Free Thinking and Bull And Bush (2.40 Doncaster) with Sign Of A Victory (3.10 Doncaster) and Oscatara (3.45 Doncaster)
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