DAQMAN 37-12 AHEAD OF PRICEWISE: Daqman leads Pricewise (Racing Post) 37-12 as they go into the final day of jumps big races at Newbury before The Curragh launches the Flat season on turf tomorrow. Here are the top 14 of our man’s 37 win returns:
WON 20-1 TRIOLO D’ALENE (Hennessy)
WON 16-1 RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
WON 12-1 BALLYNAGOUR (Cheltenham)
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN (Thyestes)
WON 12-1 SPRING HEELED (Cheltenham)
WON 8-1 LAST INSTALMENT
WON 6-1 SAPHIR DU RHEU (Lanzarote)
WON 6-1 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
WON 6-1 IRISH SAINT
WON 5-1 SYDNEY PAGET
WON 5-1 HEY BIG SPENDER
WON 9-2 CASTILO DEL DIABLO
WON 4-1 BALTHAZAR KING (Cheltenham)
WON 7-2 VAUTOUR (Cheltenham)
FIVE WINNING LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman continued his successful sequence of lays at Lingfield yesterday when he made it five in a row. The five are:
WON FORCEFUL APPEAL (unplaced 9-2)
WON IRVING (unplaced 7-2)
WON HURRICANE FLY (unplaced 11-4)
WON BERTIEWHITTLE (3rd 5-1
WON NOBLE CITIZEN (unplaced 9-1)
DOUBLE BANKER LINGFIELD FLING: Daqman hunts out value but, as ever, dares to gamble and he welcomes in the big-race scene on the Flat with a double banker on Winter Derby day at Lingfield. Two win bets and a place at Newbury could take him to 40 up in his Pricewise challenge over jumps.
2.40 Lingfield (Hever Sprint) Favourites have finished 483577 in the last six years, their dismal story partly told by the effect of the draw, with stalls 11515 winning in five of those years.
Last year’s winner (when 5 beat 1) was Hoof It’s sister, Ladies Are Forever, back for more off 9lb higher now but a Group-3 winner since and beaten only three lengths in the European championship sprint, the Abbaye at Longchamp (Stepper Point held).
Ladies Are Forever didn’t run again until this year’s debut on today’s course, over a furlong further, paying the penalty for lack of fitness and a wide berth in stall 11. That should have primed her and she’s in 4 today.
Even Stevens (from the 1 stall) has been dueling all year with Silken Express, who is 2-1 up (Addictive Dream and Swiss Cross held) and getting weight in the adjacent stall 2.
They should give Ladies Are Forever a good tow and bring her stamina into play. I took 5.2 on BETDAQ this morning in a now traditional punter-friendly Saturday orange adding up to 105%.
3.15 Lingfield (Spring Cup) Paul Flanagan flies back from Dubai to partner Ertijaal, narrowly beaten on debut by the subsequent National Stakes winner, the 122-rated leading Classic hope Toormore.
This is Ertijaal’s first run back – off only 98 – after a setback cut short his two-year-old career and I remember Dubawi Gold winning this Spring Cup before running up to Frankel in the Guineas.
Paco Boy also won it en route to the Greenham and subsequent triumphs in the Sandown Mile and the Queen Anne, and the race is clearly much better at finding you progressive quality horses to follow than is the Winter Derby, particularly when ‘winner trained R Hannon.’
The Hannon stable’s form in the race, Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy included, is 120112, and Expert can be expected to go well, though beaten five lengths by Toormore in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
Alutiq, overfaced in the pattern last year, came back to form when winning a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq conditions race at Kempton in January but fillies have won the Cup only once in a decade.
2.55 Newbury (Mares Hurdle Finale) Toubeera has a massive task, giving up to a stone and a half away; so, too, The Pirate’s Queen.
Maiden lightweights have won this but ratings buffs will be astonished if she can score off a massive 128, at least two stone more than any maiden has carried to victory before.
On the plus side, she’s in the right age range. You can usually ignore mares over the age of six, with none able to reach the first two in nine seasons.
Forget her finishing behind Molly’s Diva at Wincanton in February, because the ground was heavy and because the Alan King yard had been shut down and was only just finding its legs again.
She has the sound surface she needs today, but was easy to back this morning at 12.0 (before the defection of Free Thinking) and Kingy also runs Midnight Cataria, 16lb better for five lengths with Toubeera.
Another good-ground mare, she surprised connections (20-1) when scoring at Ludlow over 3m on heavy, whereas, though bred for a trip, The Pirate’s Queen has never reached the frame beyond 17f., dropping right out when asked (Wincanton February 2m 4f).
Westerner, whose progeny perform so well on top of the ground, and had a fine Cheltenham with Western Warhorse and Deputy Dan, has a femme fatale here in Run Ructions Run.
‘Ructions’ has always been in the first two over hurdles and, in theory, is 10lb ‘wrong’ in this off 126. Strictly, she comes out ‘the same horse’ as Legacy Gold, a 136 to whom she conceded 4lb but was beaten less than four lengths at Leicester in January.
Her trainer, Tim Easterby, himself had a great Cheltenham, with Hawk High taking the Fred Winter and Trustan Times involved in a four-way photo for the Pertemps Final.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: With the BETDAQ orange adding up to only 106%, I could get 8.0 Run Ructions Run, a point or two above the bookies’ offers. Midnight Cataria looked big at 13.0.
If you back one King mare, you have to back the other, but I will declare The Pirate’s Queen only as a saver to cover my stakes in the race. I don’t count break-even in my contest with Pricewise.
3.30 Newbury Every winner of this has come from the bottom three in the handicap but, though the race has been dropped in class this year, it has attracted Graded-chase players, Highland Lodge, Niceonfrankie, Roalco De Farges and Storm Survivor.
Emma Lavelle warns that Highland Lodge is usually best in the early part of the season, and I don’t want to be on a Flemensfirth on this type of ground though, as a front or van runner, he should be shorter in running than his 8.2 this morning and get you holding on to your mouse until the final fence.
Niceonefrankie is hard to win with, still 7lb higher than his last success, and this is a mile further than his longest winning race at this level.
Roalco De Farges is a Spring horse and today’s trip looks perfect if he can reproduce his second in the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup off 7lb lower today. Has been brought back steadily for this.
Storm Survivor cannot be ignored, and he will appreciate the drying ground, but his total absence of form on the top tracks is a worry in this company.
Ballypatrick should run into a place, as a proven stayer, but it’s hard to back him for a win on today’s surface. He has scored just the once, suggesting he is very one paced.
3.50 Lingfield (Winter Derby) I reported earlier in the week that the last six Winter Derby winners all came from the pattern, including Farraaj (had won Listed, placed Groups 1 and 3)
His Winter Derby win last year came at the expense of Robin Hoods Bay (second), with Tinshu fourth and the 2012 winner, Premio Loco, fifth. The quartet are back for more, so, too, 2012 third, Circumvent.
Otherwise we have only Chil The Kite (won Listed, second and third Group 2 and third Group 3) and Grandeur (second Grade 1, won Grade 2 and second Group 2, third Group 3, won Listed twice) with the right qualifications.
Dick Doughtywylie has won a Listed over today’s CD but has been working hard at home, lead horse to The Fugue. Occasionally that’s a good thing but, more often than not, lead horses get used up or disappointed by the dominance of their work companion.
The dark horse of the race is Vodkato (huge at 18.5 on BETDAQ), who was in a blanket finish to a race on the Chantilly Polytrack recently behind Grand Prix winner and Woodbine International fourth, Now We Can, after a short neck defeat in big-field AW by Smoking Sun, both races tying in form wise with the former Ascot Champion Stakes hero, Cirrus Des Aigles.
Farraaj is officially 12lb behind Grandeur, who won the trial for today’s race in February but has earned most of his reputation as a globetrotter.
In fact, he has won only one other Listed (Goodwood, September) in UK, and his Graded success is American, the Oak Tree Derby (turf, Santa Anita) and the Hollywood Turf Cup.
That Winter Derby Trial is, therefore, his only claim to fame on a manmade track, albeit he finished a 6lb better horse than Robin Hood’s Bay, who was just half a length behind Farraaj in this Derby itself last year.
Windhoek didn’t make it at Group level and has won only a Meydan handicap since his Listed success at the Newmarket Guineas meeting last May.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The BETDAQ market is very fair (103% orange this morning) and I’m going for a banker double with Grandeur. That reads like ‘head down, eyes closed’ but I’m really banking that one of Ertijaal or Grandeur wins and gambling that both do.
TODAY: DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.7pts win LADIES ARE FOREVER (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 2.8pts win RUN RUCTIONS RUN, 1.6pts win and place MIDNIGHT CATARIA and 0.6pts win (stakes saver) THE PIRATE’S QUEEN (2.55 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ERTIJAAL (3.15 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win ROALCO DE FARGES (3.30 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win GRANDEUR, and 1.1pts win and place VODKATO (3.50 Lingfield)
TOMORROW: The start of the Flat at The Curragh, with the Irish Lincolnshire.
NEXT WEEK: Daqman’s Flat horses to follow and his ABC Guide to the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
