10-1 PLUS THE IRISH LINCOLN IN DAQMAN DOUBLE: Daqman yesterday started the Flat at the Curragh as he left off the jumps: winning big time. He immediately beat his value-betting rival, Pricewise, taking the Irish Lincolnshire with an 11-2 shot and earlier landed the fillies’ Group 3 with Vote Often (WON 10-1).
FIVE BIG-RACE WINNERS IN ONE WEEKEND: From Saturday’s hat-trick at Newbury and Lingfield to yesterday’s Curragh double, Daqman has hit five feature-race winners in two days, taking his total in the Pricewise challenge to 40 since the jumps season started in November:
SATURDAY
WON 13-2 RUN RUCTIONS RUN (Mares Finale, Newbury)
WON 7-2 ROALCO DE FARGES (Alan King Chase, Newbury)
WON 5-4 ERTIJAAL (Spring Cup, Lingfield)
SUNDAY
WON 10-1 VOTE OFTEN (Park Express Stakes, The Curragh)
WON 11-2 STUCCODOR (Irish Lincolnshire, The Curragh)
TODAY: THE EARLY BIRDS: Daqman starts his horses to follow for the Flat with a list of early-bird trainers and horses, all expected to do well in the Spring.
TOMORROW: HORSES TO FOLLOW: Look out tomorrow for his class acts, the top-of-the-tree animals for the 2014 Flat campaign, taking in the Classics and the big stakes races.
Early-bird horses and trainers win year on year. Make yourself a list of stables which are successful in March-April-May, and log the horses that score when fresh.
The stables I would nominate for big Spring handicap success would be William Haggas, Richard Fahey, Charles Hills and – in this particular year – Tim Easterby.
The Fahey yard has struck with such outsiders that its level-stakes profit was 103 points to a single point staked on each April runner over the last five years. In that time, Willie Haggas has scored at a strike rate of 21%.
David Barron’s five-year tally almost matched that in both March and April, and the two months showed a total of 65 points profit. Mark Johnston has had more than 150 March-April winners in the five years. And Richard Hannon scored that many in May alone.
I’ve spotted a few horses (below) which go well fresh and are nominated not just for those big yards who score regularly in the Spring but for smaller stables (Brittain, Tate, Candy) who give the layers an early wake-up call.
CARRAGOLD (Mel Brittain): He’s an eight-year-old now but has won second or third time out for the last three seasons. He needs 10 furlongs and top of the ground for preference though, as horses age, their old legs tend to appreciate a bit of ‘give’.
ES QUE LOVE (Mark Johnston): To put it politely, Es Que Love has ‘character’. He’s a ‘thinker,’ perhaps because he’s an entire. But, in the early weeks of the season, when he’s forgotten about the pain of exerting himself, he can win races. Form on first two outings in April and May for the last three years: 31/11/10.
GOOD SPEECH (Tom Tate): The stable has had just the one starter recently, a winner at 14-1. Good Speech was running in class 3 and 4 last backend but back him, if returned to class 5 (form-figures 2122). That means he needs to shed a couple of pounds.
HEERAAT (William Haggas): Another entire, he was a winner first time out last season. Heeraat is ultra-game and genuine. Stepped up from class-3 handicaps to Group-3 success. Favourite track Newbury, so look out for him at the Greenham meeting.
LADY LOCH (Richard Fahey): A mare hard to keep sound but her first-time record is 3/2/1 over three seasons, and she’ll no doubt be got ready while there’s cut in the ground.
LILAC LACE (Tim Easterby): The stable had a huge season in handicaps last year and has just hit a hat-trick with its jumpers, and added a second big race, the Mares Finale with Run Ructions Run, to its Cheltenham victory with High Hawk. Tremendous stuff. Lilac Lace’s April-May form last season: 111. Acts on any going.
MUSIC MASTER (Henry Candy): Started last season with a win and ended it with a Group-3 place, shooting up 24lb. Only six starts since his debut and can improve again.
NEWSTEAD ABBEY (David Barron): Cleverly named – by Byron out of a Selkirk mare – landed a hat-trick last Spring on turf and AW. Has had a run back on Polytrack. Probably needs to lose a few pounds.
ONE WORD MORE (Charles Hills): A winner first time out in April last year, was then overfaced in the German Guineas and the Jersey Stakes, returning to handicap company with a near miss at Doncaster on good to soft, and now a Lincoln entry.
TICKLED PINK (Lady Cecil): Form figures first time in three seasons: 2/2/1. Improved 25lb to run in the Abbaye at the backend but the ground was against her. Form on good/firm, Group 3 or lower: 22111. On good/soft: 20000. Likes straight track (Sandown, Newmarket).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.5pts win BULL AND BUSH at 3.6, and 1.8pts win and place CORONEA LILLY at 12.0 (3.00 Towcester)
BET 10pts win (nap) BROWNS BROOK at 3.1 (4.50 Taunton)
BET 1.2pts win and place TARA TAVEY at 17.5 (5.20 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Blue Buttons (2.50 Taunton), Bull And Bush (3.00 Towcester) and Browns Brook (4.50 Taunton)
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