IT’S A DAQMAN ‘MASTER’ CLASS AT NEWBURY: No need to dutch. Just back Masterpiece. That’s the message from Daqman for the tricky-looking card on the opening day of the Greenham Meeting at Newbury today.
LOOK OUT TOMORROW FOR THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL: He’s taking the Mickie offers on BETDAQ at the start of the Ayr meeting, which culminates tomorrow in the Scottish Grand National. Don’t miss Daqman’s value-betting clash with Pricewise. Current score 9-0.
2.00 Newbury Large fields or small, the winner has come from stalls 2 to 5 in eight years out of 10 and the one-two places in those eight years have come from the low-five stalls 13 times out of 16.
Crafty Choice (gate 2) is an obvious one to add to Team Hannon’s four juvenile winners on turf already, but there may be a bit of value in Justice Good (stall 3).
The David Elsworth stable, which has started well enough and has had six winners on the Newbury first-day card in nine years, won this race last season with a similarly named colt, subsequent Middle Park third Justice Day.
These colts called Justice are by Acclamation, sire of top-class sprinters Equiano and Dark Angel, both expected to produce smart juvenile winners themselves at stud this season.
Kibaar, by Pastoral Pursuits, is interesting with Paul Hanagan booked. The sire has already had a two-year-old winner on turf this season with Flyman, which narrowly beat a juvenile trained by Richard Fahey, who saddles Ballymore Castle here.
Magical Memory’s yard has won this before but the grey is out on the bypass in stall 12, alongside the Hannon second-string, Be Bold.
David Elsworth makes few mistakes running an occasional two-year-old at this time of year (2-3 up to June in 2013) and 12.5 was huge on BETDAQ this morning.
2.30 Newbury Outsiders at 25-1 (three times) and 16-1 have won this in the last six years. What they had in common was between four and seven runs on AW or over hurdles already that year.
Leo Luna would be 11lb clear of this field if the race were a hurdle; Outrageous Request and Bob’s World would dead-heat for second, on the ratings.
On stable form, you takes your pick from Desert Recluse, Leo Luna, Story Writer and Bob’s World. Leo Luna and Bobs World are common to both groups.
3.05 Newbury Andrew Balding has had 22 winners already this year and John Gosden’s stable form is 11013114, with 16 out of the last 22 in the first three.
Clive Cox is on a hat-trick after winners at Kempton in the last two days. His Shankly has a stone to find on 2013 form but, as this column has said several times: this year is this year, last year is last, as far as young horses are concerned.
3.40 Newbury John Gosden is two out of two in this since 2010, both of them subsequently fifth in the French 2,000 Guineas, and his Oasis Dream colt Muwarry is quoted for the 2,000 at Newmarket.
Zarwaan (The Curragh) and Hors De Combat (Newmarket) also have Guineas engagements. The Hannon yard, which runs three, took the prize last season.
4.15 Newbury These handicappers are more exposed than the three-year-olds of the two previous races. Those below the age of six have won eight out of nine since 2005.
Dutch Masterpiece and Steps lead the ratings and head the market but, since the start of 2012, Steps has needed blinkers and a run back before he can win.
The blinds are also missing from Stewards Cup third Burwaaz, and Tennessee Wildcat needs another furlong or more; he gets behind, even at 6f and 7f.
Lucky Beggar started with a good third in the Free Handicap last April but his subsequent form was not even close to Dutch Masterpiece’s Flying Five (Group 3) success.
Kyleakin Lass is expected to need the race and the dangers to Dutch Masterpiece may be Ballesteros, who has spent six of his last eight starts in the Pattern, and old Jimmy Styles – also dropped from Group and Listed level – for the in-form Clive Cox.
But I can’t see either of them troubling Dutch Masterpiece at the weights. Four of the last six winners have had the class to carry more than 9st 2lb to win.
4.55 Ayr Competitive racing at Ayr on the first day of the Scottish National meeting but there are holes to pick in this one.
Bull And Bush and Romantic Fashion have to climb in class as well as in the ratings, while Clara McCloud, an easy winner on Wednesday, tries to sneak under the handicapper’s radar with a small penalty. It rarely works these days.
Twin Plan is two out of two at Ayr, plotted for back-to-back wins in this race after a recent run back at Downpatrick. The danger is Mickie, who is down from Graded and Listed level.
5.55 Ayr The one-time-classy Lieutenant Miller has twice won after long absences and will have been ‘got up’ for this. Not much threatens in the immediate market.
Dundee is a maiden, Howizee is up 15lb on his last success and, if Ryan Mania was worried about 2m 4f here last time – ‘I didn’t want to commit too soon over the trip’ – then it looks like A P McCoy has one of those grinding-out jobs to do on Forward Flight, now trying 3m.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet staked to win 20 points unless marked as a stakes saver)
BET 1.7pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) JUSTICE GOOD and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) CRAFTY CHOICE (2.00 Newbury)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) DUTCH MASTERPIECE (4.15 Newbury)
BET 4pts win MICKIE and 3.7pts win TWIN PLAN (4.55 Ayr)
BET 4.5pts win LIEUTENANT MILLER (5.25 Ayr)
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