DAQMAN STEAL: 21-POINT OAKS SNIP: The Daqman Oaks outsider in his exclusive ABC Guide closed down fast yesterday. All the offers from his play at 43.0 were bought up down to 22.0 at one stage. This morning Anipa was 26.0, but as low as 12-1 in a place with bookmakers.
DAQMAN DERBY PLEA FOR PUNTERS: Amid mystery about the punt on Geoffrey Chaucer for Saturday’s Derby, Daqman takes the opportunity to plead the case for punters, who are left in the dark as rumours and hype take over the markets.
DAQMAN AGAIN: FOUR BETDAQ RACES: There are four sponsored BETDAQ races at Kempton Park tonight. Daqman examines them race by race, looking for value.. and looking for winners!
DAQMAN TOMORROW: DERBY ABC: Can he turn up another huge offer, such as Anipa, when he combs the stats and form for the Derby in another of his distinctive ABC guides tomorrow.
NOW THE DERBY STORY CAN BE TOLD
What should the punter be told? In these days when ‘insider information’ is illegal in the City (for some) and laying your own horse is banned (for all), where tracing dope is down to a single polo-mint, racing still has its grey areas.
Part of the art of picking winners is ‘reading between the lines’, in this case form lines, and sussing the element of truth hidden within the spoken or written word in trainer interviews: some are forthcoming; others are ‘discreet.’
But I believe that punters should be told circumstances like these: a horse is not at its racing weight; it has scoped badly; it has not worked at home for some time because of injury; it has quirks; it can’t breath properly under stress; it normally sweats up; the whip cannot be used for pressure. And more.
Aussies and Americans are shocked when you tell them that there is no public sight of a horse, or view of its gallops, until it appears in the pre-parade. Many are complete strangers to us, particularly in maidens and two-year-olds’ races.
What can we do? Follow the stats; follow the money? Believe the hype and the rumour? We are bound to take these routes because of our common circumstance of being ‘kept in the dark’.
When Aidan O’Brien is quoted as saying ‘Australia is the best horse I’ve had’, when did he say it; and why? what were his exact words and to whom; and has anything changed?
When a leading bookmaker tells us that Australia has been beaten in a gallop by Geoffrey Chaucer, do we believe it; is there no smoke without fire? What were the weights carried? Why hasn’t it been denied?
I can reveal (no one else has, because it’s not ‘the done thing’ to grass him up) that royal trainer Dick Hern galloped his Epsom pair, Troy together with the royal runner Milford – and Troy won a street when still quoted 40-1 for the Derby – with all the lads in the yard sworn to secrecy. The rest is history.
We not only have to try to interpret the Geoffrey Chaucer market move, but the hindsight impact of the Dante Stakes, when it seemed to be a no-no race at the time.
What do we now make of True Story, seemingly a flop in that famous trial at York but now known to be little more than a length off the French Derby winner?
Don’t be surprised if that form isn’t what it seems. But which way to interpret it: positive or negative? That’s another story.
BETDAQ sponsor four races at Kempton
6:00 500 Free Bets At Betdaq Maiden Stakes (3yo, Class 5, 1m 2f, 12 runners)
Remember the ‘old days’ of the all-weather. When it was highly unusual to see a runner from one of the top Newmarket stables. Just look at this race to see how times have changed with horsepower from the Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden, Luca Cumani, Roger Varian, Andrew Balding, Saeed Bin Suroor, Charlie Appleby and Marco Botti yards all represented! The first thing to say about this race is that the three debutants don’t look anything special on paper and indeed would need to be well above average to win this first time up. Winter Thunder is the pick for me. He went off 5/4 favourite for his debut at Lingfield and ran well enough finishing fourth to Zman Awal. The grey son of New Approach should have learnt enough from that to go on and win this. He can’t be the nap though as there are any number of potential improvers here.
18:30 Betdaq 25 No Lose Free Bet Handicap (Jockey Club Grassroots Flat Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (4yo+, Class 4, 1m 2f, 8 runners)
Xinbama with Fallon onboard is likely to prove a popular option here. The five-year-old made a winning seasonal reappearance over this trip at Lingfield in a class 5 and is stepped up a grade tonight and also has a 6lb higher handicap mark to contend with. A better option may prove to be St Paul De Vence who is closely matched with Rouge Nuage on Kempton form over a mile – there was just a short head between the pair but the extra distance is more likely to suit St Paul De Vence tonight.
7:30 Cash Out On The Betdaq App Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 7f, 14 runners)
This seven furlong handicap for older horses looks by far the most tricky races on the card, yet it features a relatively short priced favourite in Global Leader. He, however, let his supporters down at Musselburgh last time out when only third to Alluring Star with no obvious excuses and clearly found life tougher than he did when winning two minor races at Wolverhampton. A better proposition might be Black Dave who is fresh from a break
8:30 Betdaq Supporting The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap (3yo, Class 5, 6f, 12 runners)
For Ayman has the least experience but also the most potential. He improved on his Kempton debut to win well at Nottingham last time out – sprinting on well in the closing stages to beat the favourite Boy In The Bar comfortably. The runner-up went on to win well at Pontefract next time out so the form looks quite solid. Moonspring had plenty in hand when winning over course and distance last time out and is an obvious danger despite the penalty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win WINTER THUNDER (6.00 Kempton)
BET 10pts win (nap) ST PAUL DE VENCE (6.30 Kempton)
BET 4pts win BLACK DAVE (7.30 Kempton)
BET 4pts win FOR AYMAN (8.30 Kempton)
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