SHAMROCK HAD A 13/8 WINNER FROM TWO BETS ON THURSDAY: Now for Oaks Day at Epsom with a strong Irish challenge and a look ahead to a good card at Leopardstown tonight.
Let’s start with the good news.
The next best bet Erlkonig WON AT 13/8 in grand style, making all the running to win by seven lengths.
The bad news is that I napped the wrong one. The debutant Battle Of Marathon was strong in the market pre-race but ran an absolute shocker and beat only one horse home.
He’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and as regular readers will know I’ve been lukewarm on the O’Brien runners for most of the season. It’s not just the lack of normal winners, what’s been more alarming is how far beaten some of his more fancied runners have been.
O’Brien is one of six trainers with runners in both the Oaks and Derby and if the same trainer wins both races then BETDAQ will trigger a commission back offer on BOTH races. It’s a great offer, and could easily happen this year. There’s been five ‘doubles’ since 1985. So if you are planning a bet in either of the big races it’s a great added insurance offer.
O’Brien has three runners in this afternoon’s Oaks but the market and jockey bookings firmly suggest that Marvellous is the Ballydoyle ‘chosen one’.
She stayed on in great style to win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh but I am concerned by the fact that the race was less than a fortnight ago and came on more testing ground than she’ll get today.
In contrast, the drying ground has come in time for Dermot Weld’s Tarfasha who would have been a non runner if it had been soft.
She’s a half-sister to stout stayers Saddler’s Rock and Galileo Rock and the distance should hold no fears. I liked her comeback run at Naas and Weld has made a superb start to the new season. He’s overdue a Classic success in the UK – his last winner was Refuse To Bend in the 2000 Guineas 11 years ago.
There’s a good card at Leopardstown tonight and Joseph O’Brien is flying back from Epsom for rides in the two Listed races.
In the Saval Beg Stakes at 8.05 Tarana for John Oxx is preferred to the O’Brien runner Eye Of The Storm and in the King George V Cup at 8.35 the O’Brien’s may have to settle for second again as Sinkal looked good when making a winning Curragh debut and can follow-up here.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Tarfasha (4.00 Epsom, The Oaks)
NEXT BEST: Tarana (8.05 Leopardstown)
WIN: Sinkal (8.35 Leopardstown)
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