DAQMAN NAP AND DERBY ONE-TWO: Daqman won money on both days at Epsom, landing his nap yesterday, Baitha Alga (WON 15-8), and naming the Derby one-two: Australia (WON 11-8) and Kingston Hill (2nd 15-2).
BANKER TODAY AFTER 12 FROM 14: If he can keep the nap stable at not far off the 811 points of his recent sequence (from 28 wins in 44 days), he plans to cap 1,000-points profit over Royal Ascot. He’s had 12 bankers up out of 14, with another one today.
THE 1-2-3 HEADLINES IN ADVANCE: Back to the Derby for a final time. Here’s Daqman’s Epsom Saturday and Derby-ABC (Thursday) headlines (see Archive):
1 Australia AUSTRALIA! HOW HE FINISHES ON TOP
2 Kingston Hill IT’S KINGSTON COME THE RAIN
3 Romsdal 150% ROMSDAL DERBY BONUS ON BETDAQ
THE KINGMAKER CLASSIC
I can’t remember a Classic like it for years. Not the Derby; that was a two-horse race. No, I mean the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. It reads like a check-list of the cream of 2014 colts. That’s because it is! What do you think?
Night Of Thunder (won): Meets Kingman at Royal Ascot.
Kingman (2nd): Won Irish 2,000 Guineas
Australia (3rd): Won Epsom Derby.
Shifting Power (4th): Second Irish 2,000 Guineas
Charm Spirit (5th): Won Chantilly yesterday.
Kingston Hill (8th): Second in the Epsom Derby.
The Grey Gatsby (10th): Won the French Derby.
GEMIX TO BE FRENCH CHAMPION AGAIN
1.30 Auteuil The placed horses, Ambrose and Willie Mullins’ Gitane Du Berlais, don’t seem to have much hope of overturning last month’s CD defeat by Roll On Has.
But Mullins now sends over the big improver Abbyssial, the Punchestown Champion four-year-old, rated 12lb higher than Gitane Du Berlais, and giving only 5lb, with Ruby Walsh up.
2.05 The Curragh Aidan O’Brien and Jim Bolger share this cake. No other trainer has managed so much as a tranche in its four years. Sure enough they are 1-2-3 in the betting this morning.
I shall be laying Cape Clear Island (O’Brien), who is bred to win a St Leger. Progeny of sire and dam added together have produced only three winners at 5f-6f.
US Navy Seal, the supposed O’Brien second string, is a War Front, much more likely to win at 6f, but more preferable is Popularity (Bolger), the get of Cape Cross (105 juvenile winners) out of a mare related to a two-year-old Group placed.
3.10 The Curragh The stats suggest that we back a runner aged four or five; three-year-olds keep trying and bag seconds and thirds, but have yet to score.
With the ground drying out, I see no reason why Doonard Prince (big at 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning) should not improve on his Naas success under Ross Coakley, claiming 7lb.
3.10 Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle) Thousand Stars has won this twice (2011-12) so why not another go, after his tremendous back-to-back wins at Fairyhouse and in the La Barka on today’s course over Le Grand Luce and Diakali.
But the stats are waving the red flag at him; there’s been no winner of this since pre-1970 aged more than eight, and he was a very long way behind Gemix in this race last year.
Gemix’ recent form looks uninviting for a bet but check it out: he hasn’t raced over this kind of distance since last year, and has been struggling for pace over shorter. In his longest race since, he was only about a length off the winner of the autumn grand prix.
In fact, Le Grand Luce is weighted to avenge his La Barka defeat on revised terms and Diakali, fourth in the County Hurdle, third in the Aintree Hurdle, has always shaped as if this 3m 1f plus would suit.
The official ratings make it quite a scrap. Revised to level weights, the runners line up like this: Gemix 165, Le Grand Luce 164 (notional), Diakali 162, Thouand Stars 161, Zarkandar 160, Bog Warrior 157, Zaidpour, 156.
3.40 The Curragh Another race in which Aidan O’Brien and Jim Bolger share the spoils (3-2 to Gentleman Jim in eight seasons).
Three-year-olds have a much better record – 113103 since 2006 – but it’s a worry to see first-time blinkers on Nonchalant after just the one race, albeit a quietly impressive winning one.
The grey will do well to get involved, with five of his opponents dropping down from fair performances at Group level, looking for compensation in this Listed.
With the drying ground, the trip may not be far enough for El Salvador (blinkered to sharpen him up) and Ursa Major, mostly with winning form between 1m 4f and 1m 6f. In any case, Ursa Major is back after a long break, and El Salvador’s turf form is on heavy.
Harasiya, yet to win beyond 7f, is another one returning from a very ling absence and, as a Pivotal, may not want the drying winds.
Parish Hall, behind El Salvador over further, is back to his winningmost distance. He may just be good enough after that close-run thing with Magician in the Mooresbridge in May.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ABBYSSIAL (1.30 Auteuil)
LAY 5pts CAPE CLEAR ISLAND and BET 4.3pts win POPULARITY (2.05 The Curragh)
BET 3.5pts win YUL FINEGOLD and 3pts win GREYLAMI (3.00 Goodwood)
BET 2.2pts win DOONARD PRINCE (3.10 The Curragh)
BET 6pts win DIAKALI and 4.5pts win GEMIX (3.10 Auteuil)
BET 7pts win PARISH HALL (3.40 The Curragh)
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