LUCKY SEVEN RACECARDS TODAY: Daqman’s leaving Clonmel to Shamrock. But that still leaves him six racecards to source for winners and a nap today. His best bet is, in fact, at Goodwood tonight.
THIRD 9-2 WINNER IN FOUR DAYS: Automotive (WON 9-2) saved the day, and pushed Daqman into profit yesterday, a third 9-2 winner in four days, follow Carraroe Flyer and Nodform Richard on Monday and Tuesday.
ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN: Daqman checks out the stalls bias in three 5f and 6f races at Royal Ascot next week. Go back in the Archive for his Ascot insight earlier this week.
STAY LOW FOR THE BIG ASCOT SPRINTS
Wokingham Stakes
Despite 32-strong fields, six of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stall 11 or lower, three of them from the one and two stalls, right on the rail. This is bias in a handicap field.
Kings Stand Stakes In three of the last four years, eight out of 12 placed in the first four in the Kings Stand have come from stalls 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Not a handicap so a pronounced advantage.
Queen Mary Stakes
Low numbers have dominated in the last four seasons, with one result (2010) by stall 1, 2, 3, 4! Some 12 of the 16 fillies in the frame were drawn seven or lower. Check out the other two-year-old races, looking for an edge.
MAWAQEET BIRTHDAY TREAT FOR McCAIN
It seems a cruel game sometimes. But stick to what you know best and it will all work out. Once By Thunder, my 13.0 BETDAQ outsider, had drifted to 20-1 yesterday, I wrote her off. But she stayed on steadily to be fourth; tough luck on a win-and-place bet but the money seems only lent, until she goes handicapping.
Meanwhile, it was 9-1 on Eastern Belle would ‘get beat’ but she won at 9-4 against and ‘my one’ finished out the back door. Why 9-1 on; because my records show that 88% of maidens racing in a field of 10 or more where all the others have won a race will surely lose.
In other words, in a series of 100 races, we will win 88 times, but yesterday was one of the exceptions. Therefore, money only lent.
But I can’t give all my mathematical, problematical, statistical and form reasons for every bet (sometimes I try, and worry that I am going on too much).
Nor can I give my reasons for losing, as now. I just hope not to lose too much (I say again, if you are new to this column: I tip in several races every day, but only advise strongly in races of class 3 and above; you can’t trust those graded below that to perform consistently).
When the percentages go against you, don’t worry, because they must (repeat ‘must’), by their very nature swing, in your favour, particularly IF you have the value prices on BETDAQ.
So it was that Automotive won at 9-2. Interconnection (3rd 11-2 SP) landed the place part of an 11.0 bet, and Engrossing (2nd 9-1) another place, even closer, nip and tuck with the winner, in fact. Profit on the day: 15 points.
AINTREE
It seems strange to be at Aintree in the summer but this is some of the finest turf in the world, and ought to be used more often. Tonight there are three consecutive class-3 races.
The 2m chase (8.10) has gone to the bottom two in the handicap four times in its six years of existence, and the Brian Ellison runner, Inoogoo, is ultra consistent, and placed twice in two outings at Aintree.
Don McCain, 44 today, has been missing strike – figures of 4431222330 for his last 10 runners – but Mawaqeet (8.45) is two grades higher on Flat-race class and a real A P McCoy ride is expected.
CHEPSTOW
Sir Michael Stoute, who used to train Mawaqeet, rarely races at Chepstow; when he does he has a 75% with three out of four.
Sea The Bloom (6.05) looks a good thing on her seasonal debut run but is so far generally disappointing as a daughter of Sea The Stars out of a Fillies’ Mile winner.
Lady Cecil throws a Curved ball. Frankie Dettori, who should have been off the mark in the opener (5.30 Smaih) rides this daughter of the mare Passage Time, connected with the prolific ‘Time’ family at Warren Place.
GOODWOOD
Stoute also runs a Sinndar colt, Rocket Ship (8.00), at Goodwood. Rocket Ship has been missed out of the Racing Post’s first-time-in-a-handicap list, which could help the price unless system fans are vigilant.
Rocket Ship has seven previous winners to beat so is a tasty 9.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. The one they made favourite, early mouse, was Oasis Fantasy for Ed Dunlop whose bad run continued (1-74 on turf) with Red Runaway stone last at 15-8 favourite yesterday.
Strategic Force (9.05) steps down from the £100,000 handicap at York tomorrow, with connections worried they might not make the cut. But they are running him today because he is flying at home. Nice BETDAQ offers, thankyou layers, of 4.3 early mouse
MUSSELBURGH
Better class but smaller fields; that’s the sad fact because there are thousands of cheap horses around who are going to struggle even to win a maiden.
Ian Semple, who used to be top man with John Gosden and John Dunlop, knows all about this struggle as a trainer, and be warned of Gotcher (4.30) that Ian has now gone 20 races this year with just one (second) place.
Alan Swinbank, in contrast, has had 18 winners in 2014, which is already around halfway to his usual total. He has a handicap debutant, In Focus (2.20), that looks poised to win over the Musselburgh mile.
But the Swinbank score for handicap debutants is no score at all: nil. He’s 0-12 in the Racing Post list. Majorities has already fluffed his lines stepped up into handicap company and Rainbow Rock needs the first-time visors to work a minor miracle.
So it is that, if you fancy Desert Colours’ run has come to an end, you should be on Spiceupyour,life. They’ve just raised her in trip and Richard Fahey will be keen to win with her again before the easier ground is baked hard.
Laffan (3.25) is a huge price this morning, offered at 9.2 on BETDAQ, still in line for the Bunbury Cup at the July Meeting.
SANDOWN
Token Of Love (3.15) has an entry in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She looks a cut above these, a Cape Cross filly, with connections hoping the forecast showers stay away.
YORK
Connecticut (2.30) is another Ascot entry but easier to back in this class-3 handicap at 3.05 as I write.
The Group-2 target suggests he could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap here, with Luca Cumani having just struck form. The rest of a card of big-field handicaps leaves me thinking: save your wallet for Saturday.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win SPICEUPYOURLIFE (2.20 Musselburgh)
BET 10pts win CONNECTICUT (2.30 York)
BET 2.4pts win LAFFAN (3.25 Musselburgh)
BET 2.5pts win ROCKET SHIP (8.00 Goodwood)
BET 4pts win INOOGOO (8.10 Aintree)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) STRATEGIC FORCE (9.05 Goodwood)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Connecticut (2.30 York), Token Of Love (3.15 Sandown), Sea The Bloom (6.05 Chepstow), Mawaqeet (8.45 Aintree)
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