100%: THREE ASCOT NAPS OUT OF THREE: Daring Daqman moved all in on Leading Light (banker, WON 10-11) to land his nap on all three days of Royal Ascot so far:
* Kingman (WON 8-11) banker
* Integral (WON 9-4)
* Leading Light (WON 10-11) banker
100%: TWO OUT OF TWO HIT THE BULL: He made Leading Light his second win-50 Bull’s Eye Bet of the week, following the gambled-on Hootenanny on Tuesday, so:
* Hootenanny (WON 7-2)
* Leading Light (WON 10-11)
100%: THREE DAYS PROFIT IN A ROW: The nap-with-bull’s-eye double whammy gave Daqman a third successive winning day at Royal Ascot, taking his profit to 76 points. He leads Pricewise 6-3 for wins at the meeting.
WATCH THEM ALL FOLLOW THE GLOW!
2.35 Royal Ascot (Albany Stakes) I’ve done good, but I like to do better than good. It’s been one of those weeks where I’ve talked up horses, like Baitha Alga yesterday, and the odds in the morning on BETDAQ have been so good that I’ve shied away.
Even in my eighth year as Daqman, the exchange markets still catch me out, after a lesson learned with bookmakers over many seasons that, if the price looks too good to be true, it probably is!
Towards the end of every Ascot day, the bookies have been squeezing the punter hard – it happened again yesterday, with 133 and 141% overrounds – yet here I am this morning looking at, down the card, 101, 104, 105, 106, 108 and 112% total probability in the BETDAQ-orange offers this morning.
Yes, only 112% in a near-30-runner handicap, the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That will hit 130-140 with the bookies as a Total SP; you just wait and see!
In this Albany, high numbers in the draw are attractive. The Windsor Castle result by stall was 25, 21, 17 and the Queen Mary 12, 22, 20 (as the week goes by The Wow Factor’s Coventry win from stall one is looking more and more remarkable).
Patience Alexander’s form ties in with the Queen Mary runner-up. She breaks from gate 10, alongside Wesley Ward’s grey-roan Sunset Glow in 11, and there is pace from the low side (Expensive Date, Fujiano) and towards the middle (Secret Liaison, Sexy Legs), with Sunset Glow herself a trail-blazer.
Among the high stalls are Bitter Lake and Cursory Glance, but Elite Gardens appeals particularly, because she beat the colts at Newmarket.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Sunset Glow (around 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is another Wesley Ward machine and she seems to have speed on her side of the track. Likely big-odds placer is Elite Gardens, 14.0 as I write.
SNIPER WAITING ON DARE FROM DICK
3.05 Royal Ascot (Wolferton Handicap) You want a four-year-old from a low stall after a quiet season so far: Bold Sniper and Café Society, then.
In fact, Bold Sniper, the ‘moral’ at Newmarket first run back, giving weight to the first two, beat Café Society over 1m 2f on today’s course last July, and this recent buy into the Gai Waterhouse yard is now worse off at the weights, punished 8lb for winning at Windsor in May.
Dick Doughtywylie, lead horse for Kingman in the Spring, can now race in his own right. He gets 1m 4f and is likely to be ridden as a stamina horse from the front. He is hard to pass. Unless you’re Kingman.
Hall Of Mirrors, dropping down from the Pattern – third to Magician in the Mooresbridge on firm – is big at 18.0 but has been a problem horse to train and doesn’t have much of a finishing kick.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Several have dropped out of this on the sun-baked turf. A lot depends on whether Dick Doughtywylie gets away on terms; if he does, he could make them play catch-me. A 1m 4f winner on firm, Bold Sniper is the one to accept the challenge.
ADELAIDE SHOULD BEWARE OF BUNKER
3.45 Royal Ascot (King Edward V11 Stakes) The Epsom Derby, which seemed to produce top-class colts in Australia and Kingston Hill, was to have its first test in this so-called Ascot Derby with the sixth horse home, John Gosden’s Western Hymn, flying its flag. But he’s out: we’ve lost the Classic hymn sheet.
We’re now reading from lesser form, unless you think Italian Derby winner Dylan Mouth rates top grade. I doubt it. He’s been beating his own stablemates.
Gosden now relies on Eagle Top, a Pivotal making a big leap from handicap company. Most Pivotals like soft ground. So does Dylan Mouth. So does Snow Sky. So does Adelaide.
This is your problem here: which of the easy-surface winners will cope with the Ascot-fast ground? The good book says that Miners Lamp and Odeon have won on firm.
Odeon was fourth in the Dante, just in front of Bunker. But Miners Lamp (form let down at Ascot by Alex My Boy) is another trying to stride up three or four steps at once from handicap company, and Odeon – his top-of-the-ground win was his maiden – is up in trip, though so far a keen-going sort.
Snow Sky won the Lingfield Derby trial after running up to Western Hymn at Newbury but the third horse home at Lingfield was 15th in the Epsom Derby and the fourth was stone last to Adelaide in the Gallinule Stakes.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Adelaide is a good mover and is expected to relish the change of going. Bunker, who ended last season beating the French Guineas winner, is the each-way horse, as one who made huge physical progress over the winter and deserves his first r=eal chance to show it here: 12.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
PARIS COULD SPRING A SURPRISE
4.25 Royal Ascot (Coronation Stakes) 1,000 Guineas form is best in this (7 winners out of 10 ran in the Newemarket Classic) but Lightning Thunder failed to ‘do a Kingman’ and step up from HQ to win at The Curragh. She was second again.
Seconditis among the horses I back is even more pestilential than when I get it with my tipping; it seems to cling long term, like a bug you can’t shake off. You can keep on catching a cold with them.
The alternative to Lightning Thunder is My Titania, who missed the Newmarket Guineas because of a bad scope and then missed The Curragh because of soft ground. That’s another syndrome I don’t like: excuses, excuses.
That also applies to Rizeena. Superb two-year-old but probably used up (ditto Lucky Kristale, Kiyoshi, Sandiva). Excuses for Rizeena’s Guineas flop at Newmarket; then said to have broken a blood-vessel before the Curragh version.
Any one of the My Titania, Lightning Thunder and Rizeena could bounce back and win, but remember it was a French filly who won the Guineas, though, at first glance, they have nothing fear from J Wonder and Lesstalk In Paris from the French version.
But, as a Cape Cross, Lesstalk In Paris may do much better on this ground. She made all on a sounder surface to win the Prix de La Grotte trial.
Tapestry failed to run her race at Newmarket – last of 17 when favourite for the 1,000 Guineas – but Ballydoyle flops have a habit of coming good at a later date, and something must have been wrong that day.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The hardest race of the meeting to call. Now they love you, now they don’t, these flighty girls are in and out the door, full of excuses. I can’t have a serious bet at the front of the market, so I will punt at bigger odds: Tapestry 12.5 and Lesstalk In Paris 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
CENTURY IS THE BALLYDOYLE SELECTED
5.00 Royal Ascot (Queens Vase) The Gold Cup winners Leading Light and Estimate have taken this on their way to the top in the last two years, and gave us a thriller for the ultimate medal yesterday.
Hartnell, runner-up in the Lingfield Derby trial, could get a big boost from the Lingfield winner, Snow Sky, in the King Edward V11 but has to turn the tables on Marzocco on Epsom form in April.
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2007, including with Leading Light, and his recent form-figures for the race are 1421421, so, though winner only of his maiden (don’t like those), Century could step up on his bare form, as the selected from Ballydoyle’s entries.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This looks a moderate renewal, in which I will go along with Ballydoyle’s selected, Century, a very fair offer at around 6.0 in a 105% orange as I write.
SANTEFISIO TRIES SAME DOUBLE ACT
5.35 Royal Ascot (Buckingham Palace Stakes) Of the first five home in the Royal Hunt Cup, the Sandringham Stakes and Britannia Stakes combined here this week, 12 out of 15 were from stalls 20 to 33.
Last year’s first six by stall in this were 32, 30, 24, 15, 26, 25, and the previous year 11, 23, 32, 25, 28, 18. The phrases ‘might as well’ and ‘stay at home’ spring readily to mind, regarding those single-figure drawn.
I can’t fancy Bronze Angel with Marcus Tregoning 1-36 this turf season. Nor does a Pivotal appeal, though his son, Watchable, is quite short with the only bookies I keep an eye on, Ladbrokes.
A soft-ground-only winner, Fort Knox did well on firm, first run back in a big field at Newbury, but 9st 10lb looks a bit of a stopper.
I like Blessington (stall 27), speedy at 6f but racing as though today’s 7f will suit. Horsted Keynes is hiked 24lb for his winning streak, belted 11lb after winning at Yarmouth on his return.
You’d normally look at improving four-year-olds, like Horsted Keynes, Blessington, Watchable, Russian Realm (another punished by the handicapper), but only two four-year-olds have won this in the decade, against success for seven older horses, all bar one from the bottom few in the handicap.
Last year, Santefisio ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, t hen won the race on the far side but was beaten into fourth by the stands’ side finishers. He took in the Hunt Cup again this week and his 28.0 from stall 18 is worth a pound.
Stuart Williams has booked Joseph O’Brien to stay on for Mezzotint, not always reliable but likes a fast-run race on fast ground.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: A lottery but 103% BETDAQ market makes it worth the pound. I’ll take Blessington (12.5), Santefisio (27.0) and Mezzotint (34.0) against the field from stalls 27, 18 and 31.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 10pts win SUNSET GLOW and (win 30) 2.3pts win and place ELITE GARDENS (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.3pts win and place DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE and (to win 20) 10pts win BOLD SNIPER (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 15pts win (nap) ADELAIDE and 1.7pts win and place BUNKER (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BET (to win 20 points): 1.65pts win and place on each TAPESTRY and LESS TALK IN PARIS (4.25 Royal Ascot)
BET 6pts win CENTURY (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BET 2.6pts win BLESSINGTON, 1pt win and place on each SANTEFISIO and MEZZOTINT (5.35 Royal Ascot)
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