YORK AND THE AUTUMN CHALLENGE: It’s the York Ebor meeting this week, time for Daqman to take stock, with a hot autumn scene ahead, from Ascot Champions Day through to the Arc. We reveal results and targets in the Daqman betting strategies for short shots and long shots, all in terms of value.
DAQMAN BETTING GAMBIT: BANKERS: Daqman landed his 25th banker from 37 with Kingman (WON 2-7) yesterday and today reveals the figures that make the bet worthwhile, despite short prices.
DAQMAN BETTING GAMBIT: OUTSIDERS: Tomorrow he checks out his value challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post and the success of the Bull’s-Eye Bet so far. Now we’re talking prices recorded in Daqman at up to 64-1.
THERE’S GOLD IN A BANKER SEQUENCE
It’s a mortgage job! The old racing phrase is a reality, if you can bet bankers to win more than the bank-interest rate. But another racing maximum must be obeyed. Any sequence of bets, declared as an investment, must show a level-stakes profit.
Daqman bankers are currently 25 out of 37 for a 20-point, level-stakes profit of 78.73 or 10.63% on turnover, three times your ISA savings rate in a high-street bank.
If you don’t like the banker strategy, I shall continue with two more targets from August to October: beating Pricewise at his own value game, and boosting stakes to win 50 points when I see a mistake in the BETDAQ markets. Bull’s eye!
My target for the banker: I want three consecutive now, so that we hit the 75% strike-rate and around 12% profit on overall stakes.
There is nothing to stop you working on these results with a different staking plan, to improve the return. One reader claims to have used a 1:2:2:3:3 system, stepping up from a single-unit level stake to two after one loser, three after three losers. He always reverts to a single unit after a win.
He says he has been making 20% on my bankers over the years and declares: ‘Keep your Pricewise challenge; I can make a steady income on short-priced horses’.
He doesn’t say whether his bets are at BETDAQ offers or SP. Betdaq offers could produce a much bigger return, but it’s fairer all round to record my results at SP. Here are the last 37 bankers:
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT
WON 1-1 TOORMORE
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN
WON 4-5 ARCTIC FIRE
(two losers)
WON 2-13 MAGICIAN
WON 8-11 LAMB OR COD
WON 4-6 ADELAIDE
WON 6-5 RED ICON
(two losers)
WON 8-11 KINGMAN
WON 10-11 LEADING LIGHT
WON 1-8 AUSTRALIA
WON 1-1 GLENEAGLES
(two losers)
WON 1-1 ON THE RECORD
WON 1-2 TOOGOODTOBETRUE
(one loser)
WON 2-5 PROFITABLE
WON 10-11 HIGHLAND REEL
WON 2-5 KINGMAN
WON 2-5 IVAWOOD
(four losers)
WON 1-1 DEAUVILLE DANCER
(one loser)
WON 11-10 ADELAIDE
WON 2-7 KINGMAN
USING PLACE BETS TO COVER THE WIN
It’s all about percentages. And at this time of year, the value is to be with three-year-olds. The 10-furlong handicap (2.30) at Kempton) is a case in point.
I claimed in my column that Prince Of Stars at Sandown 11 days ago was a horse to follow. I wasn’t after-timing; I said it before the race, and it duly won at 15-8. But only by a length.
The grey filly, Hedge End was second, the bridesmaid again after running second at Goodwood. I don’t like making excuses for beaten horses but she was unlucky there again.
Hedge End was very badly drawn (in 16) on the wide outside and it was remarkable that she got so close. Form figures of 323322 suggest she is reliable for a place, but I think she is improving race by race.
I took 7.2 the win on BETDAQ this morning and could cover the stake required to win 20 points with 2pts win the place.
It’ all about percentages. And another edge is to follow the draw, where the bias is strong. Stalls 8 and 12 have finished first and second in two of the three years of the 4.45 at Thirsk, with 6 and 9 the first two on the third occasion. Very low numbers may as well stay at home.
Like the banker sequence you will be beaten sometimes but, overall – and overall results must always be your target – you can expect to win because you are on the side of the bias and, therefore, have the percentage call.
In theory, shedding horses – like the five low drawn in this race – leaves you with such an underround that you can back all the others in the race and show a profit.
The snag, as in every race on every card, is that, below class 3, horses don’t behave the same two races running and you should modify your stakes accordingly.
I’ve taken out the low five runners in this but Ive also followed the stats in another direction: past results suggest that this is a sprint that young horses win.
The three successful so far have been aged four (two) and five, and there’s a real wrinklies line-up here, with 10 of the 15 declared aged eight to 10.
Gowanharry has been out of the first five only twice in 21 starts, and has been the moral the last twice, giving weight to those who’ve beaten him. Go on, go on, go on, Mrs Doyle, have a bet! I took 5.3 and could insure the win stakes with a place saver.
THE NAP: Jacob’’s Pillow is bred to like a bit of cut and has earned top weight in this, with Ryan Moore riding at the peak of his form just now.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win and 2pts place HEDGE END (2.30 Kempton)
BET 4.6pts win and 3.6pts a place GOWANHARRY (4.45 Thirsk)
BET 11pts win (nap) JACOB’S PILLOW (6.00 Windsor)
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