TON-UP DAQMAN? WAIT FOR IT! Where could you have backed 135 big-race winners? By following Daqman and Pricewise of the Racing Post in their value-betting challenge. Who’s winning? Daqman 99-36. One to go for his ton after a 7-1 winner on Wednesday but a 0-0 draw yesterday.
TON-UP DAQMAN? IT’S ON THE CARDS: Talking of ‘Ton Up’, that’s the name of Daqman’s new bet, still to get off the ground after a non-runner last week. Look out also for his Bull’s-Eye Bet (161 points in profit) in the next three days’ racing. The bets are staked to win 100 points and 50, respectively.
TODAY: Doncaster Cup day
TOMORROW: The English St Leger
SUNDAY: Arc de Triomphe trials in France and the Irish St Leger
TOE-TO-TOE ON BRINK OF THE 100
1.40 Daqman thinks Cotai Glory can again finish in front of the speed merchants but reckons the fast pace will suit Accepted at a big 11.5 on BETDAQ. Pricewise agrees about Accepted.
2.10 Pricewise needs two (Adventure Seeker and Sir Walter Scott). Daqman needs two: Big Thunder (11.5) and Lahaag (13.0), both big offers on BETDAQ which he steps up to Bull’s-Eye status.
2.40 No doubt in Daqman’s mind. He makes Estimate his banker. Pricewise thinks the handicaps winner, Whiplash Willie, ‘has it in him.’
CUP TRIP MEASURED FOR ESTIMATE
1.40 Doncaster (Flying Childers) Colts have won four in a row, since fillies landed a hat-trick. Just about even-steven, so that’s no help.
Wednesday was low numbers; Thursday was high. No edge in the draw, then (now he tells us), so we must search for the pace and, therefore, hope to find the shape of the race.
Ainippe is over from Ireland, unbeaten in two starts for Ger Lyons, and reckoned so good at Naas that they planned for the Cheveley Park. She was even better at The Curragh and they dreamed of the all-aged Abbaye sprint championship at Longchamp!
But yesterday’s results don’t help her. She beat colts at The Curragh – that’s what excited them – but second home was The Great War who we now known was on the downgrade. He let down the form down badly again yesterday with a modest run at Doncaster.
And it’s the third to finish at The Curragh that gives us a better line. Simply A Star had been more than 6lb inferior to Accepted at Tipperary but less than 4lb behind Ainippe in that Curragh race. If we must bet in races like this, it is upon such threads that we have to pin our hopes.
Ladbrokes were shortest about Cotai Glory overnight and who can blame them: trainer Charles Hills landed a 59-1 double at the meeting yesterday.
In favour of Cotai Glory is that he’s done well since his Molecomb Stakes win at Goodwood. Against is that Richard Hughes admitted he should have won that race on Beacon.
William Buick takes over today and Hughsie does a double stint at Sandown and Salisbury, but Cotai Glory and Beacon take us back to Accepted.
Accepted was narrowly in front of Beacon in the Gimcrack, Cotai Glory slightly further in front of a hampered Beacon in the Molecomb.
So what about the pace of the race? Does that help. Answer: it’s fast on all sides. The known front-runners in racecard order are Astrophysics (in 5), Cotai Glory next door in 6, George Dryden (10), Sarista (12), She’s A Worldie (stall 5) and Tongue Twista (in 9).
They can’t all lead but the implication is a very fast race on drying ground, with the classy Cotai Glory most likely to stretch them to the line, potentially nabbed by Accepted, a tasty 11.5 this morning.
2.10 Doncaster (Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes) Quality at the top of the handicap – 9st 5lb to 10st – has won four of the last five, though little Suegioo might struggle with his burden.
Clearly a ‘glass horse’, Sir Walter Scott looks threatening, with Luca Cumani already in the big Donny money with Silk Sari and Blue Waltz.
Silk Sari particularly annoyed, because I wrote her up as a potential winner but didn’t stake her. I face even worse options here, as a long-time supporter of both Big Thunder and Lahaag.
Big Thunder was withdrawn on Saturday when the first of my Ton-Up selections, and his chance depends on drying ground. He should be ok since most races yesterday were run close to the average, one of them faster than average.
Five times a winner last season, Big Thunder – his form this year disguised by three out of four runs over a trip tooo far – has dropped close to his last winning mark and is 8lb better with Retirement Plan on August form at Ascot.
Lahaag’s hopes are underlined by Elidor, who beat Retirement Plan, Sir Walter Scott and Suegioo at York but is 11lb worse off today with Lahaag on their running at the Ascot royal meeting.
2.40 Doncaster Cup Times Up goes for a hat-trick, trying to do one better than his old stablemate, Millenary, who won it twice for John Dunlop.
Times Up scored for John (Repeater fourth) in 2012 and followed up for his son, Ed (Repeater third, Biographer fourth). Could place again but is steadily deteriorating.
Estimate was just pipped in the Gold Cup, then in the Lonsdale and her rating has remained static (112) all year. But the trip is in her favour today.
Brass Ring has also remained on his opening mark, and it’s a similar story for Repeater. In that time, Battle Of Marengo and Biographer have been going downhill.
So whose on the upgrade? Angel Gabrial, Clever Cookie and Whiplash Willie (he’s up more than a stone) but all three are still short of Group-winning class.
Clever Cookie was disappointing in the Ebor and the ground may have gone against him, while Angel Gabrial and Times Up are held by Estimate on York form on the last day, and Whiplash Willie was beaten favourite at Chester with his best form on the soft.
The trip is the key today. Only Times Up and Estimate have handled it in the past and Estimate may just sneak in here before the ground dries up too much for her, though she did win a Gold Cup on good to firm.
3.15 Doncaster (May Hill Stakes) This race marks your card for the Fillies’ Mile (in October this year), with three winners and a third since 2005.
It’s a case of déjà vu from the opener, with an Irish horse – Agnes Stewart – number one, over here looking for better ground, while main danger, Muraaqaba, won at Newmarket on soft. But BETDAQ backers are in not doubt this morning: it’s Muraaqaba.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 4pts win COTAI GLORY and 2pts win ACCEPTED (1.40 Doncaster)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points each): 4.7pts win BIG THUNDER and 4pts win LAHAAG (2.10 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win ESTIMATE (2.40 Doncaster)
EARLY MOUSE: ESTIMATE (2.40 Doncaster), GO SAKHEE (4.00 Sandown), ALMASHOOGA (3.40 Chester), CHARLOTTE’S DAY (4.15 Chester)
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