Tennessee Titans (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -7 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Tennessee: LB Zach Brown (out– shoulder)
Cincinnati: LB Sean Porter (questionable– hamstring), WR A.J. Green (questionable– foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (doubtful– concussion)
Recent Trends
Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 9-2 in Tennessee’s last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last 7 home games
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Titans are excellent on the road, as they proved in a dominating season-opening win in Kansas City. They’re specifically good in Cincinnati, where they’ve covered in 5 of their last 7 trips. Home-field advantage isn’t such an advantage when teams face Tennessee.
2. The Bengals may be without their top players on both sides of the ball, as receiver A.J. Green and linebacker Vontaze Burfict may be forced to miss this game while recovering from injuries. Green’s foot injury is particularly problematic because Tennessee has one of the league’s best secondaries.
3. This is a perfect “buy low/sell high” opportunity: the Bengals are riding a wave of public love after their dominating performance against Atlanta last week, while the Titans are being dismissed by many after falling to Dallas. The reality: Cincinnati isn’t quite as good and Tennessee isn’t quite as bad as people are giving them credit for. The line in the game is 3 points bigger than what it should be, which means this is a golden opportunity for sharp bettors looking for value.
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have played as well as anyone in the NFL this season and they’re doing it on both sides of the ball, ranking 4th in total offense and 3rd in points allowed. They’re simply a much better team than the Titans, who were routed at home by Dallas last week.
2. Tennessee’s offense has been inept over the past few years and nothing seems to have changed, as they’re averaging just 18 points per game through two weeks of this season. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has one of the NFL’s best defenses, a unit that ranked 3rd in yards allowed in 2013 and is surrendering just 13 points per game this season. This is a mismatch.
3. The Bengals may be the very best home team in the NFL; they’re 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven home games and they’ve won six consecutive regular-season home contests by 14 points or more. They shouldn’t have any difficulty on Sunday against an inferior Tennessee team.
Prediction
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