Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3.5 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: LB Terrell Suggs (questionable– thigh), DE Chris Canty (doubtful– illness), OT Eugene Monroe (doubtful– knee), DT Timmy Jernigan (doubtful– knee)
Indianapolis: DT Arthur Jones (out– ankle), G Jack Mewhort (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points
Indianapolis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games
Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 6-0 in Indianapolis’ last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have quietly been one of the NFL’s best teams this season, winning 3 of their 4 games with a point differential of +43, second-best in the league. On Sunday they’ll be facing an Indianapolis team whose only two wins have come against teams with a combined record of 1-7.
2. Baltimore has a typically dominant defense that has surrendered fewer points this season (15.0 ppg) than all but one team leaguewide. The Colts, meanwhile, rank outside the top-20 in both points allowed and passing defense despite facing the Titans and Jaguars, who have two of the NFL’s worst offenses.
3. The Baltimore offense has received a major boost from the addition of wideout Steve Smith, who currently leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Defenses have not been able to handle the Ravens passing attack now that a viable threat has emerged opposite longtime #1 receiver Torrey Smith. The Colts, who rank 22nd against the pass, will be hard-pressed to slow down Joe Flacco and Co. on Sunday.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. After two narrow losses to start the season the Colts have really turned it on, winning their last two games by 51 combined points. The opportunity to back them as just a 3.5-point favorite at home, where they’re 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games, should not be missed.
2. Indianapolis has the NFL’s best offense, a unit that is averaging 34 points and nearly 450 total yards per game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been spectacular this season, leading the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, and this week he’ll face a vulnerable Baltimore secondary that ranks 25th against the pass. This is a great matchup for Luck and the Colts.
3. The Ravens have only covered once in their last 6 games against AFC opponents and they’re always a terrible bet against the Colts, going 1-8 against the number in the last 9 meetings between the two teams. They might have the better defensive front in this matchup, but the Colts are superior in every other facet. The better team is playing at home and they’re less than a 4-point favorite… this is an easy decision.
Prediction
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