5-1 KEEPS DAQMAN IN THE BLACK: Daqman finished ahead of the game yesterday thanks to Frizzo (WON 5-1), whose success came in the Injured Jockeys’ Fund Christmas Cards Chase. Only 47 shopping days left!
10.5 OUTSIDER FANCIED TODAY: Daqman checks out the better quality hurdles races at Fontwell and Musselburgh today, and finds a 10.5 shot, but first he heralds a hot Ladbrokes-sponsored chase at Navan on Sunday.
SUNDAY-BEST LADBROKES FORTRIA CHASE
It’s a winners’ race. The last two runnings of the Ladbrokes Ireland Fortria Chase have been won by sequence horses: Big Zeb, seven wins out of nine; Flemenstar seven in a row.
They were following a giant among sequence winners, Moscow Flyer, who won it in 2004, and scored 10 big hits from 11 starts.
What can win Sunday’s Fortria, run at Navan over 2m? The answer is usually a young horse, seven or eight; they’ve taken the prize 18 times since 1988.
It’s noticeable that the quality of the horse that wins is already established, with eight successful in the decade carrying 11st 9lb or more. Willie Mullins seems to have the ideal contender in Twinlight, a seven-year-old with 11st 10lb.
Twinlight has already landed six wins from eight starts, two at Graded level. Baily Green (8-11-4) also looks good, scorer of seven in a row as a novice chaser.
So what’s the betting a sequence horse wins again? Check out that BETDAQ orange Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Another Ladbrokes-sponsored race, the Lismullen Hurdle on the same card, also has a star-studded history, with winners like Solerina, Catch Me, Oscar Dan Dan and Voler La Vedette.
Later on, solving the Ladbrokes On Course Ireland Hurdle will take some doing: only one favourite has scored in the decade, and SPs in this handicap have ranged from 12-1 to 33-1 since then.
The trick at this time of year is to find potential among the young horses: five-year-olds and six-year-olds have won it six times all told in the decade, including the last three.
MOLL LOOKS GOOD FOR TEAM GREATREX
FONTWELL There’s an open-looking class-3 hurdle (2.40) to test your handicapping skills. The official handicapper is convinced that there’s a 21lb spread.
But the Racing Post figures consider the paper favourite Red Four has been overrated, their ‘future ratings’ this morning marking her down 12 points behind Hi Note and Midnight Belle.
Red Four’s three successes, Flat and Jumps, have come in two amateurs’ races and a maiden. And the market agrees with the Post, Red Four being easy to back this morning.
Her weight pull on the winner, Flute Bowl, when she was third at Taunton in March, doesn’t look enough, though Flute Bowl’s task is also daunting, giving weight all round, bar Midnight Belle (fell on her reappearance run, which was over fences).
Hi Note won here over hurdles on her last jumps start but it was one of three October races, and she may have had enough for now.
Floral Spinner is a perennial bridesmaid with, at one time, a sequence of seven seconds in nine races, quite a non-achievement.
The burgeoning skills of trainer Warren Greatrex are on display via Royal Moll, a former Willie Mullins dual winner in Ireland who has not been seen since last December but goes well fresh.
The Greatrex yard’s form is currently a very pretty sequence: 113110101213, still standing, the winners all ridden by Gavin Sheehan, who’s on Royal Moll today.
FIT FLAT WINNER TAKEN TO BOLT HOME
MUSSELBURGH The Edinburgh venue caps Fontwell with two quality handicap hurdles, both class 2, both full of winners.
Tim Vaughan punters seem to know what they’re doing. In the last two weeks, he’s had success at 4-1, 9-4 (twice) and evens, but recent losers at 20-1, 33-1 (twice), 50-1 and 100-1.
Vaughan is up from Welsh Wales with one in each of these two hurdles, First Fandango (2.00) at 5.5 on BETDAQ, early mouse, and Buy Back Bob (3.00) at 5.8.
Paper-forecast 12-1, ‘Bob’ seems to be the one for money, though we saw at Fontwell how the Racing Post betting forecast was askew with the ratings.
Not so here. Buy Back Bob is clear top-rated, despite being a maiden over hurdles and on a long losing run Flat and Jumps, 20 races with just ‘bridesmaid’ places to show for it.
Punters are no doubt hoping that a change of scenery and stable routine – switched from County Meath (Tony Martin) – will make a difference, his second at Southwell after a nine-months’ break suggesting this possibility.
He now takes a leap in class, and I’m not convinced at the price. Irish CD winner, Strongpoint, will be tough to crack on the good ground (though showers expected) and should again finish in front of Yorkist (needs it heavy).
Like Taaresh and Mason Hindmarsh (both up in grade), he is high in the weights. Dispour has to bounce back from an abysmal effort at Chepstow on the last day.
So it is that I’ve arrived at Titus Bolt, who landed a gamble on the Flat from the front in the Scottish Stayers Final on this course last month.
A 10.5 buy on BETDAQ early mouse,T itus Bolt was thought good enough to have a crack at the Swinton Hurdle last season, so no worries dealing with the ‘sticks’. I fancy Jim Goldie’s instructions to James Reveley will be: ‘go to the front and stay there’. The more rain the better.
In the other class-2 hurdle (2.00), Capellanus has been disappointing; Landecker, a Kelso-only winner; Full Jack without any success in UK; Themilanhorse and Samstown needing the run back.
It seems to be a question of whether Vaughan’s First Fandango or Goldie’s Wyse Hill Teabags can give 22 or 23lb to Lucinda Russell’s Tantamount.
First Fandango has no hurdles form this year and needs the ground to stay dry. The handicapper seems to have manoeuvred the other pair precisely.
A horse called Any Given Moment beat Tantamount at levels earlier in the year but was 22lb behind Wyse Hill Teabags, both over CD.
But Tantamount is only five, open to improvement, and a recent run back at Aintree should have him spot on for this. A tasty 7.4 on BETDAQ this morning in a 107% punter-friendly orange.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win TANTAMOUNT (2.00 Musselburgh)
BET 12pts win (nap) ROYAL MOLL (2.40 Fontwell)
BET 2pts win and place TITUS BOLT (3.00 Musselburgh)
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