Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3, 5-4 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-8, 1-7-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -3.5 (46)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: S Troy Polamalu (out– knee), LB Ryan Shazier (out– ankle), S Shamarko Thomas (out– hamstring), S Ross Ventrone (out– hamstring), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm)
New York: CB Darrin Walls (out– calf)
Recent Trends
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games
Pittsburgh is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points
New York is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 6-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 10-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 14 games overall
The OVER is 5-0 in New York’s last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers are 6-3, they’ve won three straight and 4 of 5, and their offense has produced 124 points in their last 3 games. The Jets, meanwhile, have lost 8 consecutive games and have covered just once all season. Calling this game a “mismatch” is an understatement.
2. No quarterback in the league is playing better then Ben Rothlisberger right now. Over his past two games Roethlisberger has thrown for 862 combined yards and a staggering 12 touchdowns, a historic stretch by anyone’s standards. This week he’ll be facing a New York defense that’s good up front but weak in the secondary, so Big Ben should be able to keep things rolling.
3. The Jets have an abysmal offense that ranks 31st– next to last– in points scored, averaging just 17.1 points per game. Quarterbacks Michael Vick and Geno Smith have only thrown 8 touchdown passes ALL SEASON, while Roethlisberger has 12 in his last two games. There is simply no way the Jets are going to be able to keep up with the high-scoring Steelers this week.
Three reasons to back New York
1. The New York offense showed signs of life in a loss to Kansas City last week, as the newly-acquired Percy Harvin hauled in 11 receptions for 129 yards, providing a jolt of explosiveness that was sorely needed. Between Harvin, quarterback Michael Vick (who was just installed as the starter prior to last week’s game), and a rushing attack that averages nearly 140 yards per game on the ground, the Jets have all the pieces in place for a breakout performance on offense. The best part? Most fans/bettors don’t realize it yet, so tremendous value exists.
2. The Jets have a stout defense that ranks 6th in yards allowed, 7th against the run, and 12th against the pass, so nothing will be easy for the Pittsburgh offense on Sunday. Of course, it’s never easy for the Pittsburgh offense away from home, as they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 road games this season.
3. While the Jets offense seems to be coming together now that explosive weapons like Harvin and Vick have been set free, the Pittsburgh defense will be more vulnerable this week that its been all season thanks to a rash of injuries has decimated the starting lineup. Top cornerback Ike Taylor and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier have been battling injuries for several weeks and will both be sidelined on Sunday, and they’ll be joined by Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu and reserve safeties Shamarko Thomas and Ross Ventrone. So, a defense that was already struggling (20th in points allowed) will be missing several of their best players. Just makes the home ‘dog even more attractive, doesn’t it?
Prediction
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