Miami Dolphins (5-3, 5-3 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -2.5 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
Miami: LB Kelvin Sheppard (questionable– hip), RB Lamar Miller (questionable– shoulder), LB Koa Misi (questionable– ankle), DT Earl Mitchell (questionable– abdomen), G Daryn Colledge (doubtful– back), TE Dion Sims (out– toe)
Detroit: TE Joseph Fauria (questionable– ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew (questionable– foot), TE Eric Ebron (doubtful– hamstring), DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Detroit’s last 5 games following a win
The UNDER is 6-1 in Detroit’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins may be the hottest team in the league right now, as they’ve won three straight games, 4 of their last 5, and just beat the San Diego Chargers 37-0 last week. The opportunity to back them as an underdog shouldn’t be missed, and that’s especially true when you consider that their opponent, Detroit, has covered just once in their last 4 games.
2. Miami has been playing well on both sides of the ball but they’re especially good on defense, where they rank 3rd in both yards allowed and points allowed and lead the NFL in yards per play allowed. This week they face the struggling Detroit offense, a unit that ranks 24th in points scored and has produced 24 points or fewer in 7 consecutive games.
3. The Lions are 6-2 but they’re simply not as good as their record indicates. Their last two wins, for instance, have both come by a single point and they haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record since Week 3. They’re an overrated, overvalued team that has no business being favored over a red-hot team like Miami.
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions have won three straight games and 5 of their past 6, but they’re still just a 2.5-point favorite here despite the fact that Miami has yet to win a road game against a team with a winning record. The public perception of the Dolphins has been thrown out of whack after their dominant performance last week, and sharp bettors will be ready to take advantage.
2. Detroit has the NFL’s best defense, as they lead the league in both yards allowed and points allowed (15.8 ppg). The Dolphins have faced a string of soft defenses over the past month– teams like Oakland, Chicago, Jacksonville, and Green Bay– but when they face a good defense they have trouble moving the ball. For instance, they managed just 25 combined points in losses to Kansas City and Buffalo in Weeks 2 and 3.
3. The Lions will finally be getting their best player back, as All Pro receiver Calvin Johnson is set to return after missing several games with an ankle injury. Johnson is the NFL’s best receiver and his presence changes everything for an offense that has been sputtering a bit lately. The Miami secondary will really have their hands full on Sunday.
Prediction
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
