Dallas Cowboys (6-3, 5-4 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8, 3-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -7.5 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Dallas: LB Rolando McClain (questionable– knee), DT Nick Hayden (questionable– shoulder), DE Tyrone Crawford (out– knee)
Jacksonville: DE Andre Branch (out– groin), LB Jeremiah George (out– ankle), G Brandon Linder (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Dallas is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Jacksonville is 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games overall
The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s better teams this season, winning 6 of their 9 games and ranking in the top-10 in both points scored and points allowed. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have won just once all year and 7 of their 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.
2. Dallas leads the NFL in rushing offense thanks to an offensive line that is among the league’s best and a tailback, DeMarco Murray, who is having the best season of his career. This week Murray should be able to run all over a Jacksonville defense that surrenders over 120 yards per game on the ground and was gashed for 191 rushing yards by Cincinnati last week.
3. Jacksonville has a pathetic offense that has produced fewer points than any team in the NFL this season (15.7 points per game). They start 5 rookies on that side of the ball, including quarterback Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL in both interceptions and interceptions returned for touchdowns despite not making his first start until Week 4. Dallas ranks in the top-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed, so another long day for the Jacksonville offense is expected.
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. Dallas has lost two straight games and the health of starting quarterback Tony Romo is a major concern. It’s not a good time to head overseas and face a Jacksonville team that’s playing its best football of the season— the Jags are 3-1 against the number in their last four and they scored a season-high 23 points last week.
2. The Jaguars have been playing some good defense of late, limiting their last 5 opponents to 19.8 points per game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have produced just 17 points in each of their past two games, both losses. Tony Romo looked awfully gimpy the last time he was on the field (wk 8 vs. Washington), and Romo’s backup, Brandon Weeden, was horrifically bad against Arizona last week. The Jags seem to be catching the Cowboys at the right time.
3. Dallas traditionally plays down to the level of their competition, covering just 7 times in their last 26 games against teams with losing records. They’ve also been very shaky on the defensive side of the ball over the past month, surrendering 20 points or more in four consecutive games. All things considered, 7.5 points just feels like too many in this situation.
Prediction
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