Chicago Bears (3-5, 3-5 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -7.5 (53)
Significant Injuries
Chicago: TE Martellus Bennett (questionable– ribs), OT Eben Britton (out– illness), LB Darryl Sharpton (out– hamstring), G Matt Slauson (out– chest)
Green Bay: G T.J. Lang (questionable– ankle), G Josh Sitton (questionable– toe), WR Kevin Dorsey (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye
Chicago is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record
Chicago is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-0 in Chicago’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 6-1 in Chicago’s last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 5-0 in Green Bay’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears are a quality team that’s been struggling a bit lately, but they’re coming off a bye and they’re getting a very generous 7.5 points against division rival Green Bay. The Packers traditionally play down to the level of their competition, failing to cover in 6 consecutive games against teams with losing records, so the opportunity to back the Bears as underdogs of more than a touchdown may be too good to pass up.
2. The Chicago offense features a collection of skill-position talent that is unmatched leaguewide. Receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, tight end Martellus Bennett, and running back Matt Forte are all Pro Bowl-level players, and quarterback Jay Cutler has demonstrated repeatedly that he trusts his guys to win one-on-one battles, so Cutler has no qualms about throwing the ball in tight spaces and letting his receivers make a play. The end result is an explosive offense that can keep pace with anyone, including Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
3. The Packers have a dreadful defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed and 32nd– a.k.a. dead last– against the run. They surrendered 44 points in their last game, so they clearly aren’t “improving”, “on the rise”, or any other optimistic descriptor you’d like to use. This is a bad defense that is struggling at the moment, and they’re going to have tremendous difficulty with the high-flying Chicago offense, which can beat you in so many ways.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers are much better than the Bears and they’ve already proven it once this season, as they went into Chicago and rolled to a 38-17 win in Week 4. The Bears have only won once since then (and that win came over the 2-6 Falcons), so I don’t know how Chicago bettors are gonna talk themselves into this one.
2. Chicago has allowed a staggering 27.8 points per game this season and 78 combined points in their last two outings (both losses). The Packers, meanwhile, average 27.8 points per game (the same exact number that Chicago allows) and have scored 23 or more in 5 consecutive games. This could get ugly, real ugly, for the Chicago defense (just as it did the last time these teams met, back in Week 4).
3. Green Bay had a bye last week and based on recent history that’s not a good thing for the Bears. The Packers are an incredible 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye, a stat that screams “great coaching staff and veteran QB”. Both of those apply here of course, as Mike McCarthy has built an impressive offensive machine and Aaron Rodgers is one of the NFL’s very best quarterbacks. Rodgers’ counterpart on Sunday, Chicago’s Jay Cutler, is a turnover-prone lout whose considerable ‘arm talent’ keeps him employed. Cutler is just like Rodgers, only without the accuracy, charisma, and on-field intelligence.
Prediction
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