Detroit Lions (7-2, 5-4 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-1, 7-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Arizona -2 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: OT Ladarius Waddle (questionable– knee), LB Travis Lewis (questionable– leg), TE Joseph Fauria (questionable– ankle), TE Eric Ebron (questionable– hamstring), G Larry Warford (out– knee), DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Arizona: LB Glenn Carson (questionable– ankle), RB Stepfan Taylor (questionable– calf), LB Desmond Bishop (questionable– hamstring), QB Carson Palmer (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Arizona is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. NFC opponents
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 14 points
The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-0 in Detroit’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 7-1 in Detroit’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 7-3 in Arizona’s last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are one of the league’s hottest teams, having won four straight games and 6 of their last 7. They should be better than ever now that their best player– All-Pro wideout Calvin Johnson– is healthy and back in the lineup, so the opportunity to back them as an underdog should be given serious consideration.
2. Arizona lost starting quarterback Carson Palmer to a season-ending knee injury last week and will now be forced to go with backup Drew Stanton. It’s difficult to imagine Stanton having much success against the fierce Lions defense, a unit that leads the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Lions have yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
3. The Arizona defense has been terrible against the pass this season, as only two teams are currently surrendering more pass yards per game. Detroit, meanwhile, has a top-10 passing attack and they now have the incomparable Megatron back in the lineup. A big day is expected from Matt Stafford and Co., and it’s highly unlikely that the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals offense will be able to keep up.
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. Not only do the Cardinals have the NFL’s best record, they’ve been the best team in the league to back, covering in 7 of their 9 games. Five of their 8 wins this season have come by 9 points or more, they’ve yet to lose at home, and they’re facing an opponent that seems to nearly lose every week– the Lions had to score in the final two minutes in order to win each of their last 3 games, despite the fact that two of those games were against sub-.500 teams.
2. The Cardinals have a stout defense that is surrendering just 18.9 points per game, which is fewer than all but 3 teams leaguewide. The Lions, meanwhile, have underperformed on offense, as they rank 24th in points scored and have produced 24 points or fewer in 8 consecutive games.
3. Arizona is just a 2-point favorite here for one reason and one reason only: their starting quarterback is injured and they’ll be forced to play a backup, Drew Stanton. People forget, though, that Stanton played extensively early this season, won some games, and looked generally more competent than backup quarterbacks are supposed to look. In reality, Arizona has been a defense-first team all season and the difference between Stanton and Carson Palmer is negligible. The Cards are undervalued as a home favorite of less than a field goal against an inferior team.
Prediction
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