Seattle Seahawks (6-3, 4-5 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-3, 7-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -1.5 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: CB Jeremy Lane (questionable– groin), RB Marshawn Lynch (questionable– calf), TE Luke Willson (questionable– ankle), CB Marcus Burley (doubtful– hamstring), G James Carpenter (doubtful– ankle), LB Bobby Wagner (out– toe)
Kansas City: TE Anthony Fasano (questionable– knee), CB Chris Owens (questionable– knee), CB Phillip Gaines (questionable– ankle), CB Jamell Fleming (out– hamstring), WR A.J. Jenkins (out– shoulder), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin)
Recent Trends
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Seattle is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-1 Seattle’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 7-2 in Seattle’s last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 20-7 in Kansas City’s last 27 home games
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks were the NFL’s best teams last season and they appear to have found their footing again, as they’ve won 3 straight games and now sit at 6-3 on the year. They’re also one of the league’s best road teams, having covered in 12 of their last 17 opportunities. The Chiefs, meanwhile, struggle at home against quality opposition– they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with winning records. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The fearsome Seattle defense is having another great season, ranking 4th in both total defense and rushing defense and 8th against the pass. It’s their prowess against the run that should come in handy this week, because Kansas City has a one-dimensional offense that’s almost entirely dependent on the running game. As you can imagine, that conservative style of football isn’t conducive to big points totals very often, and, indeed, the Chiefs have scored 24 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games.
3. The Chiefs are excellent against the pass, surrendering just 205 yards per game through the air, but they rank 20th against the run and have been utterly unable to stop teams that make a commitment to running the football. Well, it just so happens that the Seahawks are the NFL’s preeminent run-first team: they rank 1st in the league in rush yards per game and 31st in passing. This is a great matchup for the Seattle offense.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Chiefs have been playing as well as any team in the NFL– they’ve won 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7, and four of those wins have come against teams with winning records. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are a shell of last year’s team and their record is the result of a soft schedule. Their last 4 wins have come against Carolina, Oakland, Washington, and the New York Giants, and they lost to the lowly St. Louis Rams less than a month ago.
2. The Kansas City defense has surrendered fewer points this season than all but one team leaguewide (Detroit), and they’ve been especially good lately, holding their last 4 opponents to 12.5 points per game. This week they’ll face a Seattle offense that’s extremely one dimensional– the Seahawks can run the ball but they rank 31st (out of 32) in pass yards per game.
3. The Seahawks have been overvalued all year, which isn’t surprising considering they won the Super Bowl last season. They’ve covered just once in their past 5 games and are 1-3 ATS on the road in 2014. They’ve regressed on both sides of the ball, as the defense has been unable to replace key players that either left in the offseason or are currently injured and the offense is without top playmakers Golden Tate and Percy Harvin. When you look at Seattle, it’s time to start seeing the 2014 Seahawks, not the 2013 Seahawks. The 2014 Seahawks aren’t good enough to win a road game against the red-hot Chiefs.
Prediction
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