BIG-RACE BULL’S-EYE HIT AT 9-2: Daqman’s 19 winning bankers from 24 were to pay for weekend Bull’s-Eye Bets, he declared on Thursday. Result: he landed a Cheltenham one-two in the big hurdle yesterday:
WON 9-2 KATKEAU
2nd 11-4 BIG EASY
KAT POUNCES FOR 50-POINT COUP: Katkeau won 50 points and, after deductions for losers, his Bull’s-Eye Bets finished 36 up on the day to add to the 204 he won on the Flat. His current standings are now:
BANKERS (current sequence): 19 out of 24
BULL’S-EYE BETS (overall): 240 points up
VALUE CHALLENGE (overall): Daqman 109, Pricewise 46
(current season): Daqman 1, Pricewise 2
THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: It’s profit, profit, profit for Daqman: Thursday (27 points), Friday (38 points) and Saturday (19 points) for 84 points in three days. Pricewise v Daqman races today are 2.40 and 3.15 Cheltenham
TREBLE OF NICHOLLS EMERGING TALENT
1.00 Cheltenham If this follows the stats, half the field should stay in their boxes, because winners in the past nine seasons have all been aged four, five and six.
In Fairness is an Oscar, a big, strong chasing type, who should relish the step up in trip and has won before after time off. By Beneficial out of an Old Vic mare, Howlongisafoot is another prospective chaser who can carry the weight
Jayo Time has been impressive in his two from two since joining Dr Richard Newland. Unique de Cotte is back from injury with a big home reputation, and the ability to go well first time (form figures 113 after breaks).
My man in the long grass put down his bins long enough to mutter ‘Unique De Cotte’, the grockle whisper becoming a thunder, well understand and acted upon across the levels of Somerset, early mouse.
The result was that the Pipe horse’s price had crashed to 4.6 favourite at the time of writing, against a paper forecast of 11-1. One bookie was 5-2; three big firms, including Ladbrokes, went 3-1.
1.35 Cheltenham This race produced Cue Card (2010) but is not, so far, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trial it claims to be.
What’s noticeable about Tony Martin’s two wins from four in the last week is that the winners were well-backed favourites. So, if Pyromaniac is on fire, get on.
But, after his famous double yesterday, everything P Nicholls saddles is likely to be hotter, and Emerging Talent, dropped back in trip here, is regarded as a top-line future chaser with ‘loads of speed’, so that this 2m in the mud should be his for the taking, after his run-back second to a subsequent Grade-3 winner.
John Ferguson (five winners from last eight starters) has scored one a day at this Cheltenhamfest so far, and Commissioned (Graded level last season) won without turning a hair over CD a month back. The worry is the ground.
The Henderson, Vyta Du Roc, is also marked down as a good-ground horse after two out of two on a sound surface (beaten all starts on soft-heavy in France).
2.10 Cheltenham In the last decade, this Arkle Trophy Trial has achieved the following results in the Arkle itself: FF200404. So leave your ante-post betting boots in the cupboard under the stairs.
That doesn’t mean that Paul Nicholls (recent form figures in this 111141) hasn’t produced some top-liners in the race, including Al Ferof who went on to win yesterday’s big chase in 2012, setting Ditcheat the mark for the superb performance of Sam Winner.
Vibrato Valtat, a Graded hurdler (third in the Swinton) who took to fences well at Warwick recently, is expected to take this on the way to better things.
Court Minstrel is a CD winner over fences here on good ground but the forecast this morning was for soft-heavy and he has to give weight all round.
2.40 Cheltenham Dodging Bullets, who is best when fresh, won the 2.10 Arkle trial last year and followed up on Boxing Day at Kempton Park.
He was only fourth, though not disgraced, in the Arkle itself and, maybe more important here, was his last of five to Uxizandre at the Aintree Festival in April (2m 4f).
However, the Aintree trip was too far for Dodging Bullets, and Uxizandre is the true 20f horse, though not in the best of form first run back and missed his intended target, yesterday’s gold cup. In fact, Uxizandre has never raced over 2m in his life and this looks like an afterthought.
A lot is down to Barry Geraghty here, with the cheekpieces back on Uxizandre, clearly needing an aggressive ride here to see off the faster chasers, whose speed will be blunted by the mud.
Simply Ned’s proximity to Balder Success at Aintree lofted him to a high mark, which he carried successfully in a handicap at Kelso on his return.
BETDAQ offers in the orange amounted to a punter-friendly 102% but there was just 0.15 points separating the front three in the market. I’m a Dodging Bullets man when he’s fresh but it could be a real thriller, this one, and the hat-trick for Nicholls is no certainty, though I can’t resist a Ditcheat punt on Daq Multiples.
BALTIMORE LOOKS ROCK SOLID AT 10.5
3.15 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) You’re looking for horses aged four and five (6/8), previously in the frame in a Graded hurdle (8/10).
That cuts the field down to Vaniteux, Garde La Victoire, Baltimore Rock and Katgary, though Nicholls’ six-year-old Pearl Swan seems to be his number-one on jockey bookings.
In fact, both Katgary and Pearl Swan are listed at home in the Ditcheat log-book as potential stayers for the season, though the mud may bring them into contention up the final hill today.
Willie Mullins’ Clondaw Warrior is a bit long-in-tooth for this at age seven, but you can understand him having a tilt off the bottom rung after the horse’s improvement on the Flat this summer. Snag, on all known form, is the ground.
Nicky Henderson’s results at Cheltenham this week are F30042, and he’s had only one winner – in a bumper – in the last eight days. He’s never won the Greatwood.
His top weight, Vaniteux, beat Vibrato Valtat first run back at around this time last year and was third in the Supreme Novices; Hurdle at the festival, won doing handsprings by Mullins with Vautour (handsprings by Vautour not by Willie).
Philip Hobbs has continued in terrific form but Garde La Victoire and Vaniteux are not regarded as soft-ground horses. Garde Le Victoire has already drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir at 18.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Vanteux clings on to the favourite spot but under attack by Clondaw Warrior, Exitas and Baltimore Rock. Exoitas is ahead of the handicapper, despite having shot up from 108 to 140 but I can’t see him winning in this company.
Baltimore Rock is nine lengths behind Vaniteux on a line through Josses Hill but is said to have grown over the summer and has won twice on heavy ground.
Gets 7lb from Vaniteux and, if the ground is the equalizer, he is the value at 10.5 this morning, with another well-handicapped heavy-ground winner, Baradari, a big price at 13.0
Baradari is better off with Katgary (second) on his fifth in the Fred Winter at last year’s festival when he was running on as though today’s stiff test would suit.
DAQMAN’S BETS: (each horse backed to win 20 points, except the banker and win-50 Bull’s-Eye Bets)
BET 5.5pts win UNIQUE DE COTTE (1.00 Cheltenham)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) EMERGING TALENT (1.35 Cheltenham)
BET 7.5pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (2.10 Cheltenham)
BET 8pts win DODGING BULLETS (2.40 Cheltenham)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 5.2pts win BALTIMORE ROCK, and 5pts win BARADARI (3.15 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pts win doubles and a 1pt win treble Emerging Talent (1.35 Cheltenham), Vibrato Valtat (2.10 Cheltenham) and Dodging Bullets (2.40 Cheltenham)
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