TODAY: A PLACE ON YOUR SIDE: Modest racing today, and Daqman tries to find some value or insurance cover from win and place bets in eight-runner races, which pay out three times for the place. Says Daqman: ’We have Newbury to look forward to, with handicaps to get our teeth into, but a lot of beginners races. See my first story today.’
TOMORROW: GOLD CUP PREVIEW: The target race this week must surely be the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday, which Daqman landed with a 20-1 shot last season. Look out tomorrow as he sets the scene for the big race.
CHECK OUT MULLINS’ PICK AT NEWBURY
Novices, maidens, beginners! (And I’m not talking about the England team). I mean the 10 out of 20 races at the three-day Newbury meeting this week that are for horses starting out.
Compare that with 5/14 at the minor meetings today, and you have some idea of how these ‘festivals’ of racing are being made up these days.
We have to have beginners’ and novices’ events and, for sure, the expensive animals are going to trial at the big venues. But it’s caveat emptor when you buy into them as a punter.
I shall largely be sticking to exposed form, and hoping to get more serious clues to the major festivals of Cheltenham and Aintree next Spring.
3.15 Newbury, Thursday (Gerry Feilden) This is a limited handicap hurdle and, if you get a winner that can carry a big weight, he will finish in the first three in the Champion Hurdle, say the stats. So get ready to take an early position on the big’un at Cheltenham.
Rock On Ruby (2011) won under 11st 10lb, beating the subsequent Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, Raya Star. I backed Ruby for the following March and had an 11-1 winner (see Daqman Archive).
County Hurdle runner-up, Arctic Fire, is top-weight on Thursday, with six-time winner Sea Lord (John Ferguson), said to be the mount of Tony McCoy, close up.
A key guide to big races is what the top yards choose from: check out the decs and see which of his trio Willie Mullins wants in: Arctic Fire, Wicklow Brave or Daneking.
Apart from Rock On Ruby, the only other Gerry Fielden top weight to score in the decade was Afsoun, who was subsequently third in the Champion Hurdle.
2.40 Newbury Friday A fresh horse – maximum, one run back – wins this open chase (2m 4f). Not one outright favourite has come home in front in the decade.
But, if you had focused on a narrow weights parameter (10st 11lb to 11st 5lb), you would have backed all 10 winners. Only seven intended runners at this stage fit the bill, including Willie Mullins The Paparrazi Kid, who would be a fresh horse, and is a winner first time out in two seasons of his three seasons.
3.00 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup) See this page tomorrow.
YUL NEVER FIND A BETTER EACH-WAY BET
SEDGEFIELD An all-aged open handicap (2.20) of only eight runners; weight range a stone. That is surely an each-way backers dream.
There are thee chances of a place and, if your bet is a shortish price, the place part is good insurance to cover part of the win stakes; a price better than 5-1 and you could make a profit, even if only second or third.
The fact that you are down in the depths of class 5 is contrarily significant. You can’t expect the horses to run to form which makes it hard to guess what will happen but, at the same time, that means more likelihood of an outsider winning.
In theory, the runners will finish level, if the handicapper has done his job right. But stables out of form are unlikely to produce their contenders at their best.
Barry Murtagh, who trains Stanley Bridge – tailed off last three starts – hasn’t had a winner this season. Dominc Ffrench Davis (Sea Rocket, tailed off on the last day) and Tina Jackson (Ardesia) have had just one each.
Tina’s one winner was today’s runner Ardesia but, though that was only a selling hurdle, the merciless handicapper hiked him a stone, back to his old losing level!
Orchard Road appeals only marginally more than Casual Cavalier, who has finished a total of 87 lengths off the winner in his two completed races and Amtired 150 lengths in the grey’s last three starts. ‘Am tired before I start!’
Amir Pasha is a dual Sedgefield winner at today’s trip and will be hard to beat if on song. But I shall have my pound each way on Captain Sharpe.
The 6.8 offers are big if you believe that this is a two-horse race, as I have suggested. Captain Sharpe has been placed in class 3 (just failed to win it), raced on the Flat in the summer and is from a yard which is getting 100% out of its horses at this time, according to the Racing Post.
LINGFIELD There’s a pretty desperate card in the heavy ground at Lingers. The stable renowned for mud-lovers is Venetia Williams’, and Browns Brook (2.00) should be ready now to bring Southway Star’s run to an end at a tasty 5.4 in a four-horse race (true odds 3-1).
SOUTHWELL The Southwell form of Luv U Whatever (3.10) puts him at the front of the market this morning but he’s never won at today’s trip. He’s 000 running over 1m 4f and beyond.
The penalised Street Artist is fairly well unexposed but has to give weight all round, and the improver may be Yul Finegold, who is a bit of a morning glory, working better on the artificial strip at home than he performs on the racecourse. Here’s his chance, switched to a manmade surface.
Yul Finegold (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) won only a seller at Chepstow in August but was unlucky not to score in a class 4 at Windsor last month when, giving 8lb to the winner and slightly hampered late on, he was officially beaten a quarter of a length. It’s another eight-runner race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.5pts win (nap) BROWNS BROOK (2.00 Lingfield)
BET 3.4pts win and place CAPTAIN SHARPE (2.20 Sedgefield)
BET 2.5pts win and place YUL FINEGOLD (3.10 Southwell)
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