DAQMAN WINS VALUE RACE 10-2: Daqman landed 12 Cheltenham wins and won his festival challenge to Pricewise 10-2 over the four days, so that their overall score is now Daqman 141, Pricewise 73. Our man had two wins yesterday, including leading owner for the meeting.
33-1 & 44.0 IN BIG-HITS WEEK: Daqman’s Cheltenham winners followed his Imperial Cup coup. In one week, his tips included:
WON 44.0 CAUSE OF CAUSES (8-1 SP)
WON 33-1 EBONY EXPRESS
WON 11-1 IRISH CAVALIER
WON 9-1 CALL THE COPS
WON 6-1 GLENS MELODY
WON 9-2 DODGING BULLETS (banker nap)
WON 9-2 MOON RACER
9.0 NAP ON DERBY-NATIONAL DAY: Today’s Winter Derby at Lingfield and Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter sees another Daqman v Pricewise head-to-head. The nap is a 9.0 shot at Kempton Park.
FLAT: THE HANNON TIMES ARE HERE AGAIN
It’s the Lincoln in two weeks’ time! Jumps fans who groan when Cheltenham is over, and the Flat starts for real, currently have Aintree to look forward to.
And there’s a halfway house, with a Derby and a National in one afternoon today. For the one, you need a nippy sort with a finish from a stable in form. For the other, a slogger in the mud or one who hasn’t been given a hard time over the winter.
2.30 Lingfield (Spring Cup): Team Hannon have won this three times in the decade and Lexington Times is down a grade from his fourth in the Horris Hill two-year-old test.
He was also only half a length off the Solario winner in another Group-3, and is entered in the 2,000 Guineas, for what it’s worth (though one Hannon winner of this went on to be second to a certain Frankel at Newmarket).
If you do bet all the year round, you will know that, having survived the impossible task of choosing between rising Jumps stars (Coneygree v Djakadam, for example), you now have a worse one: which two-year-olds have trained on into their second season, and which ones have improved the proverbial stone?
Hannon says nothing of Lexington Times, only of Burnt Sugar in his trade-paper interview. But the owners of Lexington Times tell us that Richard Hughes picked their one.
Impressive in the Sirenia (Group 3) on this course in September, Burnt Sugar has already raced this year in Dubai, which is probably what made up Hughes’s mind for him.
So two Hannons with a touch of class in the same race, and we shall have to back both. There’s nothing near their level on what we know, except Group-2 fifth and sixth Angelic Lord, and his stable is out of form.
Four Seasons is all the rage this morning, and has literally climbed that proverbial stone since November for a stable that’s in fabulous form (1111122011211421 in the last 10 days).
So there’s your improver. But you’re going to have to take around evens, when you can back the two Hannons for better than that, at 8.0 or so each of two on BETDAQ this morning. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
3.05 Lingfield (Winter Derby) A week early this year (as in 2012) and all the more reason for finding a stable in form from the winter AW.
William Haggas (Battalion) has made a poor start to the year while John Gosden has been farming 30% winners (10-33), which rises to 44% (4-9) with older horses like Cloudscape.
Jeremy Noseda, who made a slow start, is now striking at 33%, with Grandeur set to improve on his fourth (had to be snatched up) to Grendisar in the trial for this, when Cloudscape was third.
The Charlie Appleby form has made Tryster favourite, like Four Seasons another handicapper trying to step into the Pattern. He was impressive over the Kempton CD 10 days ago. So another way to bet today would be to back the Appleby improvers, stop at a winner: Four Seasons and Tryster.
But the last five winners of this had already won at Lingfield, which brings us back to Grandeur and Grendisar, who are only a pound apart if the handicapper has them right.
It also brings in Battalion who, like that pair, has won at Listed level here. Beat Educate over CD in November and placed in Group-3s at Kempton and Newbury.
Not the easiest to train and may well be best caught fresh if the Haggas stable is forward enough, whereas the likes of Captain Cat usually need a run or two.
Complicit is another Group-3 placed and Paul Cole is in fair form.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: As in the Spring Cup, I can have two running for me at around 7.5 this morning, stalwarts of these races at Lingfield, Grandeur and Grendisar.
Battalion’s yard hasn’t been firing, and his temperament and delicacy worry me, albeit the time to strike with him may well be first time, before his quirks set in for the year. Cloudscape missed his reappearance strike. Tryster has to improve again.
JUMPS: SAM STABLE RED HOT FOR NATIONAL
Help! The Irish have left three horses behind. After so dominating the final day at Cheltenham (they had the first three in three races), one of their winning stables of the week bids for the Silver Plate at Kempton this afternoon.
And there are two Irish raiders in the Midlands Grand National: Sandra Hughes’ Raz De Maree and Jim Dreaper’s Goonyella. But I’m betting that a Devon yard can hold them off.
3.50 Uttoxeter (Midlands Grand National): If the Gold Cup finally convinced us yesterday that we are in the age of the young guns, this race has been shouting it for 20 years!
No horse of a double-figure age has won this in those score years. Yet here we are with a card in which half the field are grandads!
Only one horse has carried more than 10st 12lb this century but a word of caution: the lightweights are from yards badly out of form: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams have all had modest Cheltenhams.
Jonjo O’Neill (Cat ching On) finally got one close yesterday (Eastlake second)/ But the in-form stables in the winning-weight zone are Jim Dreaper (Goonyella claimed off) and Nigel Hawke (Samingarry visored first time), whose current form figures are 131101.
Sam is a super jumper who hasn’t really been asked to do too much in his career so far. His stamina is not certain and it’s a bit alarming to see so many aids (tongue-tie as well as visor) but he’s had a quiet season and their application could be taken to mean that he’s been ‘got up’ for this.
Goonyella is a nearly horse who has promised much, delivered little, since winning a stamina test at Punchestown 23 months ago. But the handicapper refuses to give him a chance.
That same cruel handicapper has hit Bob Ford hard for winning the West Wales National, harder than Hawkes Point for his Warwick Classic success, though that one is no longer well in with Shotgun Paddy.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Hawkes Point may still be on the upgrade, and races with a lot of dead wood here, though Shotgun Paddy cannot be overlooked and, among the lightweights, Catching On and Samingarry (33.0 early mouse) should both go well at opposite ends of the BETDAQ market.
Sam hails from a Devon yard in hot form and has not been asked a serious question yet. Hawkes Point is big at 11.0, when you can get only 10.0 Goonyella!
WE HAVE LIFT-OFF: HOUSTON FOR 9.0 NAP
2.20 Kempton (Silver Plate): The Irish bid is by Mydor. Who has made a great start to the year but, overall, it’s cost him a 26lb rise. The ground has changed for him, though he has won on yielding.
The sound surface will be a shock to the system for La Vaticane, multiple heavy-ground winner in France, whereas it’s a bonus for outsiders Paradise Valley and Sweet Deal.
Barry Geraghty sticks with Theinval over Sweet Deal (huge at 28.0) and it will be interesting to see whether he changes tactics after getting too far out of his ground and losing out by a neck over this CD at Christmas. At 10.0 on BETDAQ, he must be a solid win and place.
3.30 Kempton (Silver Bowl): Wide open race with three horses 0.8 apart in the BETDAQ orange over my cornflakes.
Canuspotit stepped up in class; Allez Vic back to fences after a good sharpener over hurdles; Buck Magic, solid hurdles form but has never won over fences.
I don’t think it will be difficult to lead these horses a merry dance to the tune of the Pipes. Tom Scudamore excels from the front and Houston Dynimo has been waiting for the good ground. Massive at 9.0 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 30 points each)
BET 3.3pts win and place THEINVAL, and 1pt win and place (stable second-string) SWEET DEAL (2.20 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win on each BURNT SUGAR and LEXINGTON TIMES (2.30 Lingfield)
BET 4.6pts win on each GRANDEUR and GRENDISAR (3.05 Lingfield)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5pts win HAWKES POINT, and 1.5pts win and place SAMINGARRY, with 2.7pts win (stakes saver) CATCHING ON (3.50 Uttoxeter)
BET 3.75pts win (nap) HOUSTON DYNIMO (3.30 Kempton)
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