VALUE CHALLENGE AT SANDOWN: Daqman analyses two cards today. He checks out the opening of the Sandown Gold Cup meeting, which this afternoon features the Esher Cup and the Sandown Mile, with both races seeing Daqman’s challenge to Pricewise (current Flat-season score 13-4 to Daqman)
BETDAQ RACES AT DONCASTER: The BETDAQ-sponsored day at Doncaster had tasty offers (9.6, 8.8 and 7.8) about Daqman’s tips this morning, while even the getting-out maiden is an interesting contest, with a well-bred grey filly taking over as favourite.
HILLS CAN ROCK! ODDS ON FOR CLASSIC TRIAL
1.30 Sandown (Esher Cup) Once a decent handicap, but a poor turn-out today for a race that the punter used to be able to get his teeth into.
Only one favourite has won in the decade, but the winner is usually between 11-4 and 17-2 (nine out of 10), though last year’s was unexpected.
The same trainer who sprang a 12-1 surprise that day, Eve Johnson Houghton, today saddles a first-time winner as a two-year-old making his second-season debut: Plymouth Sound.
As ever, with so little form to go on, it’s hard to make judgements: Tom Hark finished in front of Shaakis last summer but Shaakis didn’t get a clear run.
Tom Hark was behind Spring Offensive earlier this month but, usually a front-runner, was slowly into his stride.
I think that both Tom Hark and Shaakis are pace types who could be swamped by the hold-up horses in the stiff finish.
Spring Offensive has form on firm and soft, often the mark of a good animal, and is well poised in the handicap. But so, too, is Purple Rock.
Purple Rock is a Dante and Derby entry though his breeding suggests today’s mile with that tough finish will suit – he traces back to a Guineas winner – and, if he is a Classic animal in a handicap here, his 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning will surely contract for a trade.
Trainer Charles Hills has already won the Greenham and has Commemorative in the Classic Trial later on today, so seems to have a good crop of second-season animals. With Cam Hardie up, Purple Rock gets weight all round.
2.00 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes) This race only ever averages six runners. The usual suspects are Sir Michael Stoute (Cannock Chase), who landed a hat-trick from 2008-10, and John Gosden (Western Hymn), who’s won it twice since 2006.
Tullius, winner of the Mile on this card last year, needs soft ground, and all Western Hymn’s best form is with plenty of cut.
Ayrad, given a hard time last year for one unraced at two, has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, well over my betting weir to 26.0, presumably because of the ground.
That leaves Cannock Chase and Postponed, the pair already separated by a couple of lengths at Ascot last season.
Postponed still sets the standard here as subsequent winner of the Great Voltigeur but Sir Michael Stoute is renowned for improving his older horses and, with Cannock Chase unbeaten last year, and already holding a verdict over his nearest rival, I’m supporting him at around 2-1 this morning.
2.30 Sandown Mile This has been a Team Hannon benefit: East Everleigh has won it six times with form figures of 11111412 in the decade, including top-quality animals like Dick Turpin and Paco Boy.
Today they have the favourite, Shifting Power, second and fourth in the two Guineas at the The Curragh and at Newmarket.
He was favourite to score at Goodwood last August but was behind Bow Creek, when neither was particularly well placed on the undulating track.
Bow Creek’s jockey found the answer to that: he made all there later that month and completed back-to-back Group 2s very gamely at Leopardstown.
The snag with Bow Creek today is that he is penalised for those Group successes and no penalty has been carried in this Mile for 20 years.
Shifting Power seems to tick four boxes this morning: he’s won first time out for the last two seasons; he gets weight from Bow Creek, despite his Classic form; he’s with the right stable; and he’s the only one backed, as I write.
Here Comes When and Breton Rock both need cut in the ground. There has been watering but officially it’s good to firm and you need to monitor times of the first two races to see how accurate that is.
3.00 Sandown Classic Trial This has lost the lustre of famous names – Bustino, Henbit, Shergar and Shahrastani all won it up to 1986 – and is hardly a Derby trial. But it’s certainly a trial for punters, with just five runners.
It has also lost the lustre of a clash of England, Ireland and France, with France’s Grey Lion a late non-runner. So that leaves it to Ballydoyle, then?
No way, says the market. Though Cape Clear Island has already won this season at the Craven meeting, Commemorative is odds on this morning, as a Group-3 winner already and seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
That’s Charles Hills again, an obviously there is a strong word out there for this one. But odds-on shots have been misbehaving for some time now, and I can’t back one in a trial.
BETDAQ BEST: CHARLIE IS A PROPER HORSE NOW
1.20 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £20 Free Bet & 3% Comm Handicap) Good fields for all BETDAQ-sponsored races here, which kick off with one dominated by four-year-olds (three out of three) since its inception. All were drawn high in 10, 13 and 14.
Birdman, drawn 12, may have his wings clipped by a 13lb rise, but not yet a while. He goes into this with a nominal 6lb penalty before the rise takes effect.
Group placed as a juvenile, and running today 10lb lower than his 2014 peak, he looks home bar the shouting. Banker.
2.50 Doncaster (Cash out On The Betdaq+ App Handicap) A quality contest which threw up the Goodwood King George sprint winner, Moviesta, in 2013, and the Ayr Gold Cup runner-up the year before.
Four consecutive favourites (one withdrawn) have failed to reach the frame), with the North holding off all southern challengers.
No winner thus far has carried more than 9st 1lb. but Charlie Croker from the stable of Abernant winner, Astaire, has done really well over the winter.
The horses he has to beat are mainly AW winners, a tick in the box of fitness but not necessarily for turf racing, and he’s getting weight from the filly favourite. Charlie is a tasty win-and-place bet at 8.8 on BETDAQ.
3.25 Doncaster (Betdaq Comm Free Football on Saturdays Fillies’ Handicap) Meandmyshadow, offered at 9.6 as I write, was just about the ‘moral’ in this last year, third, conceding weight to the first two.
Though she’s 3lb higher now, she has the benefit of a run back at Thirsk, and the firm ground is a huge bonus.
Against her is her age, giving weight to eight horses all two or three years younger. But blinkers are refitted today (they sparked her to life once before), and her stable is back to form.
4.00 Doncaster (Betdaq 50% Comm Back First 3 Months Handicap) I’ve never quite fathomed it: some sprints invariably go to young horses; others demand wise-old owls, even up to a double-figure age.
This one is a four-year-olds’ race (three out of four) but the Kevin Ryan sprinter here, Distant Past, and the claimed-off Signore Piccolo, are so far best with cut in the ground.
It was soft when Noble Asset made his seasonal debut three weeks back, and he should be ready now on this sounder surface to step up on back-to-back wins in the autumn: I took 7.8.
4.35 Doncaster (Betdaq £200 Games Bonus Maiden Fillies’ Stakes) An above-average race of its type, which has attracted the Godolphin outfit, plus Hannon, Gosden and others from the South, setting their fillies on the black-type trail.
It’s a race to watch and take out animals for the future. But, if you are a follower of new favourites, you will want to be on Hope And Faith, who has leapfrogged the paper favourites to take the market lead in the BETDAQ orange.
The Noseda-trained grey daughter of Zebedee is half-sister to a Doncaster sales-race scorer, The Gold Cheongsam. Boing!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BANKER: 20pts win (nap) BIRDMAN (1.20 Doncaster)
BET 4.4pts win PURPLE ROCK (1.30 Sandown)
BET 10pts win CANNOCK CHASE (2.00 Sandown)
BET 6.8pts win SHIFTING POWER (2.30 Sandown)
BET 2.5pts win and place CHARLIE CROKER (2.50 Doncaster)
BET 2.3pts win and place MEANDMYSHADOW (3.25 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win NOBLE ASSET (4.00 Doncaster)
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