ANOTHER FOR CAPTAIN DAQMAN: A terrific all-the-way win for Captain Dunne at Catterick (WON 2-1) made Daqman’s day yesterday but he ended all square as his nap was a non-runner.
THE KING GEORGE ABC GUIDE: Today he checks out Saturday’s King George field for Ascot in an ABC of stats and facts, with an in-depth analysis of each probable runner.
TOMORROW: JACK UP THE ANTE! Ascot starts tomorrow with the Brown Jack Stakes. Daqman will be looking for bankers, lays, bull’s-eye bets and ‘hidden horses’. Check out his betting plans again in Tuesday’s archive.
KING GEORGE: ’SNOW DOUBT SKY’S THE LIMIT!
3.50 Ascot, Saturday (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes) On the face of it, the stats look ominous: only two three-year-old winners and nine aged four since 2005 but, in fact, the Classic generation rarely appears in this these days.
And you could log the age stats another way, like this: an Oaks winner, Taghrooda, and a King Edward V11 winner (Ascot Derby), Nathaniel, have been good enough to beat the older horses, and only Trading Leather (Irish Derby) has succumbed to them in the decade.
Another very rare winner is one that’s had more than three starts already in the year: Golden Horn and Flintshire have had four!
A Aged three or four (11/11)
B Group-1 winner (10/11)
C Only two or three races that year (10/11)
D Trained Gosden or Stoute (4/6)
E Rated 115-125 (some notional)
ABC Dylan Mouth
Sire Dylan Thomas was as great a sequence winner as Golden Horn, taking Irish Derby, King George and Arc. Dylan Mouth’s dam is related to long-distance types. Appears to be making steady improvement and should be staying on.
Nine wins sequence in Italy, including Italian Derby, broken by failure at Royal Ascot 2014 behind Eagle Top in the King Edward V11 Stakes (Ascot Derby), said not to have liked the firm ground.
The horses he’s beaten this year are only Listed level, even in Italy, but he has improved 5lb to 116 on official British ratings. That’s a stone behind Golden Horn.
ABDE Golden Horn
Breeding not spectacular on the dam’s side but this particular Dubai Destination cross seems to have worked very well, and his sire got Sea The Stars and Ouija Board. His real problem on Saturday is whether he’ll beat himself.
Potentially self-inflicted wounds could be his long season at the top, winning two Derbys and an Eclipse, and the conundrum of the pace: will Frankie Dettori risk getting the strong pace he needs to cruise off or will he try to make his own running, as he did at Sandown?
The colt has officially improved 19lb since he won the Dante Stakes from Jack Hobbs, whom he beat by further in the Epsom Derby.
Jack Hobbs then proceeded to hammer the Irish Derby field and Golden Horn to beat his elders, notably The Grey Gatsby (rated 123), in the Eclipse, ‘Gatsby’ being the only horse to beat dual Derby winner Australia in races beyond a mile.
AB Madame Chiang
Bred for bags of stamina, and sustained a relentless gallop to land the fillies’ and mares’ championship on heavy ground (1m 4f) at Ascot last October.
She improved on a modest run in the Epsom Oaks (said not to have liked it firm) when close behind Treve in the Prix Vermeille before the Ascot success, albeit Treve was recovering from several setbacks.
ACDE Snow Sky
With a Group-1 win under his belt, this one would tick all the boxes, but he’s failed twice when attempting the top grade.
However, he’s officially regarded a 35lb better colt since beaten in the Racing Post Trophy as a juvenile, only just having broken his maiden at that time.
Only fourth in the 2014 King Edward V11 Stakes at Royal Ascot to Eagle Top, and beaten by Postponed in the Great Voltigeur, it was another tall order to tackle the St Leger as his second Group 1 and he was outstayed in third.
Despite what you read in the Press, the ‘big improver’ had moved up in the ratings only 7lb between Royal Ascot 2014 and a sudden leap forward – another 9lb – at Royal Ascot 2015 when he beat both old rivals, Eagle Top and Postponed, in the Hardwicke.
They were more than a double measure of this huge surge forward in that he was turning round the form with one of them by 10 lengths and with the other by more than six lengths. Now we can say ‘big improver.’ Now we can say ‘Sky’s the limit.’
ACDE Eagle Top
Romsdal and Eagle Top were last year’s John Gosden ‘nearly horses’ where Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs have been nonpareils for the same stable this time around.
Eagle Top, King Edward V11 winner at Royal Ascot 2014, was supplemented for the King George, as Gosden had done with Nathaniel (winner in 2011). The Eagle finished well, like a St Leger colt, but had to miss Doncaster through injury.
After returning at Sandown in May, he was subsequently no match for Snow Sky in the Hardwicke, albeit hemmed in at a crucial stage and reckoned still ‘on his way back.’
ACD Romsdal
Fourth to Snow Sky in the Hardwicke that day, Romsdal has just a Listed win to his name since his maiden and was only seventh in last year’s King George.
But on his day he was able to test the best that year: third to Australia in the Epsom Derby and second to Kingston Hill in the St Leger, a Groupie but not a Group winner.
Of the pair of Gosden lesser ‘mortals’, Eagle Top should come out on top of Romsdal, as officially 7lb the better horse and still unexposed after only six races in his life.
ACE Postponed
Beat Snow Sky in last year’s Great Voltigeur at York, but second, third, third in the John Porter, Tattersalls Gold Cup and Hardwicke (Snow Sky’s revenge).
He’s been stuck on 116 or 118 rating in those three runs, suggesting there is nothing more to come.
ACE The Corsican
A handicapper who stepped up a notch at the Goodwood May meeting with a convincing Listed success (raised 10lb) and followed up with another improved performance, fourth to Free Eagle and The Grey Gatsby at Royal Ascot (raised 5lb more). Needs still more here.
BE Flintshire
Doesn’t tick many boxes but never runs a bad race. Second and third in the Coronation Cup on his only visits to England but runner-up to Treve in the 2014 Arc and again in the recent Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud: 15/16 in the first four but the needle has stuck on a similar rating over the last year or so.
C Clever Cookie
With 10 wins from 16 starts, Flat and Jumps, has shot up 26lb in the last year, but Group-3 Ormonde Stakes win on soft is a long way short of this. No seven-year-old (and only one aged six) has won since the race was inaugurated in 1951.
The overall score is three-year-olds 29, four-year-olds 28, but more recently 9-2 to four-year-olds. That’s where I came in.
RAAQY CAN STAR IN SANDOWN LISTED RACE
A decent Two Year Old contest features in Sandown. Off at 3.30 with a good field of eight fillies, including Fireglow who was fourth in the Albany at Royal Ascot.
Mark Johnston’s charge was a good Maiden winner at Catterick on her debut but just didn’t quite have enough pace to get to the leaders in the Albany. She stayed on well to grab 4th that day beaten just over four lengths behind Illuminate who won again at Newmarket’s July meeting.
Fireglow is certainly to be well respected in this and comes as the standard setter.
The top four on the card, Alinstante, Aneesah, Bahaarah and Chiringuita are all sure to improve for the run in a race like this but I would imagine this will be a step too far for them at this stage of their careers.
I’m siding with Raaqy who won a good Maiden at Doncaster in early June from which there has been several winners including one that now has a rating of 87.
On that occasion, the daughter of Dubawi had to overcome a lot of traffic and got up to beat another Hamdan Al Maktoum horse, Alsaaden. Six furlongs looked to be as short as this one would like and the step up to seven should be suitable for her and I think she is very unexposed. I would reckon that she could get well into the 90’s in the ratings, if she wins today, which is the mark of a decent horse.
Thirty minutes earlier, six go to post in a competitive handicap which is likely to see Secateur attempt to make all the running, which did when winning last time out at Newmarket. He got a 12lb penalty for that win which looks harsh and with that in mind, I’m looking to the Hannon horse at the bottom of the Handicap, Who Dares Wins.
This on is coming here off the back of two good wins at Wolverhampton and Salisbury. Tom Marquand, today’s Jockey, has built a good relationship with him and he can improve off a mark of just 77 here.
GODOLPHIN IN THE FINALE AT NEWBURY
Newbury and Doncaster provide the best of the rest today. I have two selections for Newbury including the Nap and one for Doncaster.
The 7.55 at Donny is the pick there. Margaret’s Mission has just completed a hat-trick of wins with her last win coming over a mile in Doncaster. The drop back to seven is the only doubt about her today.
On the other hand, Mambo Paradise looks like being right at home over seven and ran very well last time out at Chester in a better race and reappears off the same mark of 86 in this one. With the smaller field, there is more room for her and she could be the one to beat for the formidable partnership of Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning.
Over at Newbury, I’m looking at the final two races. The penultimate race looks like being between No Delusion and Sharqeyih and there’s not much to chose between them.
No Delusion was twice second behind Divine Law at Windsor and neither time looked like ever getting passed but then got ahead of Amazing Speed at Newmarket at the end of June. Amazing Speed was beaten next time however.
Sharqeyih won well at Beverley two runs back and did all but win next time at Doncaster when being overhauled late home by the aforementioned Margaret’s Mission. The conditions of this race may be more suitable for her this and with no obvious big improver in the field, she’ll be hard to beat.
Godolphin can get one back in the last with Serene Beauty however. Charlie Appleby and William Buick team up here and realistically, it will take a big run by one of her five to beat her this time. She’s the highest rated runner in the field and should confirm that at 8.45.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength; 10 is a banker)
BET 4pts win WHO DARES WINS (2.55 Sandown)
BET 6pts win RAAQY (3.30 Sandown)
BET 4pts win MAMBO PARADISE (7.55 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win SHAREQYIH (8.10 Newbury)
BET 8pts win (NAP) SERENE BEAUTY (8.45 Newbury)
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