IT’S WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN: Daqman continues his winner-a-day sequence from all quarters of the Flat turf scene: Catterick yesterday, Haydock and Longchamp over the weekend.
✔️ IRISH DANCER (WON 2-1) Monday
✔️ DIAMOND NECKLACE (WON 4-5) French 1,000 Guineas Sunday nap
✔️ LAKE FOREST (WON 6-5) Saturday supernap
BE A LAYER AS WELL AS A BACKER: With BETDAQ, the punter sets the scene, making offers to his fellow punters, creating exchange possibilities race by race. If you’ve never tried laying the favourite, now is the time to start, as revealed in results on the opening day at York tomorrow.
FAVOURITES LOSE 13 OF 14
LAYERS are loving this time of year. Form rarely works out; in fact, there’s often very little form that’s relevant, and the usual guidelines for punters don’t apply.
Though backers reckon to steer clear of handicaps, where in theory the runners are weight-rated to finish level, Springtime favourites flop year on year, as revealed in the last seven seasons of the 2.55 at York tomorrow.
Surely best to bet (and not to lay) in conditions races where the weights are the same and results are likely to go to top-rated runners.
That’s often not the case at this time of year, particularly in races for three-year-olds only.
In the same seven seasons, the favourite for the Musidora (4.05 tomorrow) has won only once. In the two most recent renewals, the filly favourite has finished last, one of them at odds-on.
⭕ 2.55 York handicap tomorrow. Favourites: 5-1 4th; 5-1 14th; 6-1 16th; 11-2 19th; 11-2 5th; 6-1 13th; 7-1 13th.
⭕ 4.05 York tomorrow Favourites: 5-2 last of six; 8-11 last of seven; 15-8 fav 3rd; 4-7 won; 11-10 2nd; 13-8 3rd of six; 7-4 7th.
SAY HELLO TO CIAO
⭕ 5.10 Beverley today This isn’t the best card Beverley have staged – six races (how retro!) and odds-on shots in the opening two races.
The only bet for me comes in the last race where Ciao Capo can build on a promising stable debut at Ripon last month when he finished fourth to Domination. He didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs that day and was doing his best work near the end of that mile event suggesting he will appreciate this first try over 1m 2f.
There’s every chance he is still well handicapped and the weights and measures department have taken a chance by dropping him another pound. The early Betdaq Betting Exchange morning trading was positive in his favour.
Chief rival, according to the betting, is handicap debutant Regulus Black from the Hugo Palmer yard who are ticking over nicely. He has been beaten 11 1/2, 17 and 17 1/2 lengths in his three starts so far and a low starting handicap mark of 51 doesn’t really appeal to me on the basis I want to see a little more ability first.
Fareenar disappointed on her handicap debut at Redcar and the extended trip is far from guaranteed to work in her case.
A bigger danger may come from What Fools Believe who won at Southwell two starts ago and now gets her first start on turf.
MASTER TO STRIKE
⭕ 5.20 Hereford An interesting puzzle – who needs Wordle or Sudoku – which pitches Master Roque and Lost In The Dream in a bumper where the market can’t split’em!
I can – or at least will attempt to – as I think the Alan King trained Master Roque might well have too much class for Taunton debut winner Lost In The Dream.
Lost In The Dream has to give 7lb to Master Roque which is never easy in this sphere and there’s every chance Master Roque is the better horse anyway given he was pitched in at the deep end on debut at Newbury in a valuable class 2 bumper.
He finished down the field in 13th but shaped well and whilst he obviously needs to improve there’s every chance he will in this vastly inferior class event.
Lost In The Dream’s Taunton win (by only a head) took a knock when the third placed Roll A Dollar was a well beaten last of five next time out.
TWILIGHT TIME
⭕ 8.20 Lingfield Twilight Moon has every chance of completing her course and distance hat-trick despite being hiked 3lb for her latest win. She seems to have scored with enough in hand in her last two races to suggest she’s capable of further improvement and defying her career high mark.
Victors Spirit is the likely favourite but is still a question mark over this 1m 4f trip on the flat having finished 6th to the mighty Constitution Hill at Kempton where he weakened inside the closing stages over the same distance as tonight.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
5.10 Beverley (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win CIAO CAPO
★ 5.20 Hereford (win 10, nap)
BET 10.0pts win MASTER ROQUE
8.20 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win TWILIGHT MOON
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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