THURSDAY 1st TEST: The Edge previews England v New Zealand with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
England v New Zealand 1st Test
MATCH OVERVIEW:
The English summer of cricket officially gets under way on Betdaq Betting Exchange as with the 1st Test between England and New Zealand on Thursday at Lord’s. This is the first of three Tests, and it forms part of the current World Test Championship cycle, but all the talk around this series will still revolve around off-field matters. This is their first Test since the Ashes disaster – a 4-1 hammering in Australia that was effectively done and dusted with two matches to spare, by what was billed as the best England squad to tour Down Under in years. The fallout has been brutal. The ECB review concluded with Ben Stokes, head coach Brendon McCullum and managing director Rob Key all keeping their jobs, and that decision went down like a lead balloon in some quarters.
Michael Atherton said fans would find it “extraordinary” that nobody lost their job, and Geoffrey Boycott was furious, as always! Throw in questions about dressing room culture, the off-field issues on tour, and the picture painted after the Ashes was quite bleak. There’s also been plenty of noise between the international set-up and the counties; which has been a huge issue for McCullum and Key to be honest. They have since been doing the rounds trying to smooth things over, and the message this time has been that County Championship form will actually matter. That’s reflected in the squad – three uncapped players in Emilio Gay, Sonny Baker and James Rew have been rewarded for domestic runs and wickets, while Zak Crawley’s spot at the top of the order and Shoaib Bashir’s place are both under real scrutiny.
New Zealand, by contrast, arrive in good order and with their feet under the table. They’ve just warmed up by absolutely hammering Ireland in Belfast – an innings-and-79-run win wrapped up inside three days at Stormont. Tom Blundell helped himself to 186, Rachin Ravindra got a century as they recovered from a wobble at 86 for 4 on the first morning. How much that warm-up is worth is debatable; Ireland have no domestic red ball cricket system and their players only play a handful of times a year because of money issues with the board. New Zealand might have been better served warming up against a County side. Nevertheless, a fascinating Test awaits. England need results this year with everyone under pressure.
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
Lord’s is a cracking place to start a summer. As we know these days, Lord’s is all about what cloud cover we have – no clouds and the wicket is quite flat – but the ball can do plenty when there’s cloud cover and a bit of moisture about, and the slope at Lord’s helps the seamers get the ball moving both ways. That makes the day-to-day forecast very important and obviously the toss too. Lord’s has turned into a result venue; the last nine Tests here have had a result. Indeed, from the last 27 Tests there’s only been four results. I know the way England play Test cricket has had something to do with that – Bazball speeds up the game – but it’s definitely been a result venue. A forecast with a bit of rain around wouldn’t be a disaster either because if it’s grey and muggy, batting is exceptionally difficult here.
RECOMMENDED BET:
There’s no surprise to see England as favourites on home soil, but the 1.83 doesn’t jump off the page as good value here in my opinion. There’s been a tonne of issues off the field to work through, and coming off an Ashes hammering, they’ve got three uncapped players in the squad, real uncertainty at the top of the order, and crucially no Jofra Archer in the attack either. New Zealand impressed in Ireland, and while I know Ireland aren’t in the best place in Test cricket, it was a good warm up that should leave them spot on for this. They have the bowlers to do real damage against England in these conditions, and they look the value call at 3.35.
The Edge Says:
Two points win New Zealand to beat England at 3.35 with Betdaq Betting Exchange
View the market here -> https://betdaq.biz/1EngNZ
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
Test match trading at Lord’s is all about the new ball periods and the overhead conditions. It generally pays to support the batting side when the sun is out, and support the bowlers when there’s cloud cover. The strongest early angle for me is taking on the England top order in helpful morning conditions – its an unsettled line-up against a New Zealand attack that’s in rhythm and knows how to bowl in England. Lord’s has really turned into a result venue in recent years too, so it would be nice to get a low draw lay in – it’s trading 6.2 at the moment but if we see it trade sub 3.0, I’d be happy to be against it.
