LA LIGA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews CELTA VIGO v LEVANTE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CELTA VIGO V LEVANTE
6pm We have a full midweek fixture list from La Liga this week on Betdaq Betting Exchange as we tick down towards the end of the season. We kick it off with a massive clash on Tuesday evening as Celta Vigo host Levante! This fixture has massive implications at both ends of the table. Two clubs with very different ambitions, but the same desperate need for three points. Celta Vigo sit in sixth place; fully on course for a Europa League spot but they could actually catch Real Betis in fifth and get Champions League football. There’s a four point gap at the moment; Celta Vigo just have to win every game and see where it lands them. On the other end of the table, Levante arrive into this game sitting in the relegation zone.
The relegation battle in La Liga is exceptionally tight again this season with multiple sides involved again. Although Levante sit down in 19th, a win could see them jump up to 14th for example. Every game is a cup final for them at this stage; that goes without saying. Celta Vigo recorded a huge win at the weekend away to Atletico Madrid, and it’s no surprise that they come into this game as the odds on favourites with home advantage. Celta Vigo are trading 1.76 with Levante 4.9 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. While Levante sit in the relegation zone, they have been finishing the season very strongly. They’ve only lost twice in their last ten La Liga games.
The under-lining numbers here are fascinating to be honest. When you look at the table, you’d think everything is going right for Celta Vigo and wrong for Levante. However, Celta have been massively over-performing this season. Celta Vigo’s average xG created of 1.22 is actually the third worst attacking figure in La Liga, which is a genuine concern for backing an odds on shot. Their average xG conceded of 1.42 is mid-table too. They’ve been exceptionally lucky this season. Levante’s average xG created of 1.32 is marginally better than Celta’s going forward – slightly more than you might expect from a side deep in the relegation mire. However, their average xG conceded of 1.70 is the joint-worst defensive figure in La Liga and tells you exactly why they are where they are in the table.
We’ve had some cracking atmospheres in Spain recently; Sevilla fans standing out with their side in the relegation battle. You’d have to expect another cracking atmosphere here – with European football on the line, the fans will be in full voice. Levante’s awful defensive numbers make them a difficult side to fancy, but I do feel Celta’s attacking figure here makes the 1.76 feel very short. I’m happy to keep stakes small, but from a value point of view I’m happy with a Celta lay. I just expect the game to be closer than those odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Celta Vigo to beat Levante at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLCeLe
