8/1 WINNING NAP: SHAMROCK hit the jackpot at York on Thursday with an 8/1 WINNING NAP (recommended WIN and PLACE) from his ONLY BET of the day Pleascach in the Yorkshire Oaks.
A pleasing nap you might say with Pleascach (NAP) winning the Yorkshire Oaks on the Knavesmire and returning at a fantastic 8/1. After the nap Devonshire was beaten a neck on Wednesday it was nice for the neck verdict to swing the other way – especially at such a good price.
Big day of racing both sides of the Irish Sea with the third day of York and evening cards from Killarney (mixed) and jumping from Kilbeggan.
Feature race of the day is the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes – the 3.40 at York. Sole Power won this last year (and 2010) but the change in ground may have just counted against him together with his advancing years.
Acapulco is the sole two-year-old in the race and she looked an absolute monster when winning the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot – she gets massive weight concession but it really is guesswork to say for certain whether she will handle this softer ground. DAQMAN goes for the lay and I think is probably right because a Yorkshire summer is much different from a Berkshire one. A betting strategy I sometimes deploy in these scenarios and at this kind of price is to back her to win on BETDAQ with an ‘insurance’ place lay. It’s a contradictory bet – but one that makes sense if you believe she could either bolt in or flop. You would be trading around 3.45 on the BETDAQ win market at the time of writing and laying at a shade of odds on in the place market so the sums do add up. Clearly the only situation you need to avoid is her finishing 2nd or 3rd.
I am switching to Killarney for the NAP and the John Oxx trained Gelenschik in the fillies maiden at 5.55. I won’t be napping an 8/1 winner today but she’s currently around evens on BETDAQ which is exceptional value for a horse I consider should be around a 4/9 chance for this race. Surely a reproduction of her Curragh effort last time out should be good enough?
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Gelenschik (5.55 Killarney)
BETDAQ SPECIAL: Back ACAPULCO to win (3.40 York) saving your stake with a place lay same horse
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