FOLLOW THE DAQMAN SEQUENCES: His treble chance ruined when his odds-against nap was a non-runner yesterday, Daqman was left with an odds-on double, Maputo (WON 5-6) and The New One (WON 2-11). His sequences at the start of the week remain:
NINE bankers in a row
FIVE consecutive lays
17 naps up out of 23
Daqman 98, Pricewise 16
BANKERS v. NAPS PROFIT CHECK: Today Daqman checks out the difference between the level-stakes returns from his naps and from his bankers separately.
343 POINTS PROFIT IN 23-DAY NAPS SEQUENCE
Staking plans can be dangerous. Particularly ‘double your money.’ That’s why punters like to check out the level-stakes returns from a system of bets or a sequence of naps and bankers.
My last 23 naps have had 17 hits, but included nine consecutive bankers. Clearly a step-up-stakes system would improve the rewards from the nine bankers. I’ll talk about that again soon.
Meanwhile, I’ve kept the record straight here, just as it happened, bankers with straight naps in the entire 23-day sequence, so that you can see the good with the bad, the short odds with the decent prices, all at level stakes.
WON 1-2 Shalaa (gold banker)
WON 10-11 Donna Graciosa (banker)
WON 5-6 Dark Emerald (banker)
WON 10-11 Kayla (banker)
3RD 6-1 Daisy Boy (winning place nap)
WON 11-10 Second Wave (nap)
2ND 6-4 Secateur (nap)
WON 8-11 Vazirabad (banker)
WON 11-8 Esoterique (nap)
WON 5-4 Ballydoyle (nap)
WON 9-4 Ready Token (nap)
Unplaced 7-2 Ejbaar (nap)
Unplaced 7-2 Hallelujah (nap)
4TH 11-4 Shifting Moon (nap)
WON 5-6 Quiet Reflection (banker)
WON 4-1 Gifted Master (nap)
WON 5-6 Best In The World (banker)
2ND 5-1 Mark Hopkins (nap)
WON 4-1 Idaho (nap)
2ND 2-1 Southfield Royale (nap)
WON 1-4 Don Cossack (gold banker)
WON 11-10 Barton Antix (nap)
WON 11-10 Solow (banker)
At 20-points level stakes, the 23 naps and bankers produce 343 points profit. The bankers alone score 138 points.
Of course, BETDAQ betting on most of these achieved considerably better value at morning offers than at SP. So the returns are conservative.
CLUES ARE TELLING ME THE WINNER
Not a bad start to the week as Mondays tend to go. Pontefract stage their feature meeting of the season with the Listed Silver Tankard Stakes the feature at 3.40.
The last outright favourite to win this was the Michael Jarvis trained Playfellow back in 2008 and the race threw up a 20/1 shock in 2013 when the outsider of five, Lady Heidi, won.
Oisin Murphy’s star is very much in the ascendancy and he is onboard the form choice Beast Mode who is rated eight pounds clear of the field but this is very much a race where the bare ratings don’t tell the full story or factor in likely improvement.
Dealing with Beast Mode first of all. He made all to win his maiden at Newcastle after finishing down the field on debut at Newmarket. He was then ramped up dramatically to Group 2 level for the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket and beat only one home in the race won by Foundation. In fairness, he was only beaten four and three quarter lengths but I think it would be dangerous to take that too literally. He looks a little short for this at around 3.7 on BETDAQ, especially as his maiden win came on quicker ground and it’s good to soft at Pontefract this afternoon.
He is also up against two potential big improvers in the unbeaten Thanksfortellingme and Chinoiseries who won on soft ground on debut at Chepstow in a race where they finished well strung out.
Thanksfortellingme is also proven on the ground and he is two from two. He narrowly beat the odds-on Skeaping on debut at Goodwood and that one has run well since in a big field at Newmarket and last time out Thanksfortellingme won well at Epsom. He deserves a chance in this higher grade and will hopefully find the necessary improvement.
NO CATCHING CAUGHT OVER THE MARATHON TRIP
Just six runners now contest the Phil Bull Trophy over the marathon 2m 1f 216y trip in the absence of Medicine Hat.
It looks very much a match on paper between the top two on the card, High Secret and Nearly Caught.
The key form line is the recent Cesarewitch at Newmarket in which Nearly Caught finished a highly creditable fifth and High Secret was well back in 23rd.
Over a similar trip it would take a monumental turn around in form and although the betting reflects that, Nearly Caught looks a sound nap to start the week in a race where he has the very obvious beating of the very obvious danger.
DIAMOND FOR SILVER OR EVEN GOLD ?
Windsor looks trappy but there’s an interesting proposition in the opener for short price players.
You can either back Quatrieme Ami at 1.6 in the win market or Shine Likeadiamond at around the same price in the BETDAQ place market (only two places).
I am giving one last chance to Shine Likeadiamond. With form figures of 322222 the alarm bells are sounding loudly and the flashing lights too but it’s the lack of opposition (bar the favourite) that makes her surely the solidest of bets to finish second again and if she wins we collect too !
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 8pts place SHINE LIKEADIAMOND (1.50 Windsor)
BET 6pts win THANKSFORTELLINGME (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 9pts win (nap) NEARLY CAUGHT (4.40 Pontefract)
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