BMW MASTERS PREVIEW: The European Tour stays in China this week for the penultimate event of their season, as a star-studded 78-man field will look to conquer Lake Malaren Golf Club in the BMW Masters.
This is the fourth straight year that Lake Malaren will play host to the event; it’s a lengthy (7,500+) Jack Nicklaus design that offers some room off the tee, which invariably leads to low scores if the wind isn’t blowing. Of course, that’s a big “if” at Lake Malaren, as the wind can howl at times and make life miserable for the competitors. This was the case in the final round last year, when just four players broke 70 in brutally tough conditions. Marcel Siem was eventually crowned champion after outlasting Ross Fisher and Alexander Levy in a playoff, but Siem hasn’t won since and can currently be had at a whopping 182.0 at BETDAQ.
One big name you won’t see this week is Race To Dubai leader Rory McIlroy, who had a prior commitment, and in his absence Justin Rose (7.8) has been priced as the favorite at BETDAQ, followed by Henrik Stenson (13.5) and Branden Grace (19.0). With a field as strong as this, though, there’s plenty of “red meat” to choose from, so you’ll be excused if you pass on the short-odds types. Here are my selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (27.0)- The young Fitzpatrick has been a road warrior this year, as this will be his 31st event of the season. Far from tiring out, though, he’s actually been steadily improving, registering top-10 finishes in five of his last eight starts. The latest success was a T7 at last week’s HSBC Champions, when he was one of only three men in the field to break 70 in all four rounds. This will be his first appearance at Lake Malaren, but considering the course is pretty much straightforward “target golf”, I don’t think lack of familiarity will be too much of an issue. This is about going with the hot hand, especially when the “hot hand” is priced at nearly 30/1.
Bernd Wiesberger (35.0)- Wiesberger is very comfortable in China– he played well at last week’s HSBC Champions, firing a 2nd-round 66 and going on to finish 17th, and he’s shown a liking for this event, improving his finishing position in each of his three appearances (40th in ’12, 17th in ’13, 13th in ’14). Moreover, Wiesberger has shown over the past 18 months that he can compete and win on the world’s biggest stages, and this week certainly qualifies. His game seemed really close to firing on all cylinders last week (finished 5th in the All-Around stat), so don’t be surprised if he’s the man left standing with the trophy on Sunday afternoon.
Hao Tong Li (76.0)- I must admit I was unfamiliar with the 20-year old Li prior to last week, but after watching the young Chinaman battle his way to a 7th-place finish in a top-notch field, I’m firmly a believer (for this week, anyway). He’s clearly playing with a lot of belief at the moment (remember, he finished 26th in the Turkish Airlines Open prior to the HSBC), which doesn’t guarantee success but is necessary groundwork from which success can spring, and –wait for it– LAKE MALAREN IS HIS HOME COURSE. Yep. Didn’t know that until a couple of days ago, but it’s true. So here we have a young, fearless, uber-talented kid who will be playing a course that he’s played hundreds (thousands?) of times before. At a price like 76.0, I’m all aboard.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Danny Willett (1.9) vs. Paul Casey (1.84)
Casey is priced as a slight favorite here because he has a good history at this tournament, finishing 6th in 2012 and 8th in 2013. And while usually I subscribe to the “horses for courses” logic (to a fault, probably), I’d have a hard time backing Casey against the red-hot Willett, who will overtake Rory McIlory in the Race To Dubai standings if he finishes in the top-25 this week. Casey has been good this year but Willett’s been better, and last week was no exception, as Willett’s final-round 62 vaulted him into 3rd place, seven shots ahead of Casey. I’ll go with the better player here. Recommendation: Willett at 1.9
Branden Grace (1.86) vs. Patrick Reed (1.88)
Both of these guys are playing extremely well at the moment and Reed always seems to excel on Chinese soil, logging yet another top-10 in last week’s HSBC Champions (his third in his last 3 starts in China). Grace, though, has been on another level over the past few months, not slowing down at all since posting top-5 finishes in two majors. His fifth-place finish last week was probably a bit disappointing after opening with a 63, and considering he played well at Lake Malaren last year, hanging around the lead for awhile before finishing 16th, another top-5 finish here wouldn’t be the least bit surprising. Recommendation: Grace at 1.86
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£20 FREE BET
