DAQMAN’S TOP TEN BANKER LIST: Daqman divides his horses to follow into guaranteed earners (as in his last banker sequence of 10 in a row) and really hefty long-shots (winners at 43-1, 33-1 and 20-1; places at 39.0 and 60.0). His first part is today: 10 to follow. His outsiders come in good time – some as ante-post bets – before the trio of major festivals, which start with Cheltenham.
THE BIG-TIME WEEKEND TRIALS: Now look out on Friday, Saturday and Sunday for the first big trials at Cheltenham for the Arkle, the Neptune, the cross-country, the Supreme, the Triumph Hurdle and the Gold Cup. It’s all happening.
TEN LIKELY BANKERS TO PAY FOR CHRISTMAS
Horses for both ends of the market. That’s been my plan over the years on BETDAQ for horses-to-follow lists now and in the New Year. How it works is this:
We start with a list of hot-shots and follow them, usually as bankers (here they are today). Along the way, I will compile a fresh list for late February or the beginning of March which will target the big festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
I shall be looking for up-and-coming youngsters, and for ante-post bets, which have brought me winners at 43-1, 33-1 and 20-1 in the last few seasons but also near-misses at 60.0 and 39.0.
One decision you don’t have to make early is between two hot-shots likely to be going for the same big races: example, are you a Coneygree man or a Djakadam devotee?
You could put both on your first list, since their stables are likely to avoid an early clash. I am expecting gold and diamond bankers from the pair of them!
Balthazar King is likely to be on my Spring list. I tipped this one at 39.0 ante-post on BETDAQ for the 2014 Grand National. He ran a marvellous second (at 14-1 SP) but it was déjà vu in that I had the third horse home in the National at 60.0 two years earlier!
Balthazar King is currently recovering from his fall in this year’s Aintree race, and we won’t see him until the Cheltenham Festival cross-country, when he’ll be a price because of his absence.
One he could meet there is Milord Thomas; I’ve put him in the list because he will need experience of the banks fences in December or January.
BROADWAY BUFFALO: Runner-up in the National Hunt Chase (4m) at Cheltenham and still only seven. You could also add: still only on 141, which got him into the Scottish National on 10st 5lb. Must have it soft-heavy.
CONEYGREE: The first novice to win the Gold Cup since Captain Christy in 1974 (I wasn’t on him either!), five in a row over fences, including –was it an omen? – the Denman Chase. His reappearance was an easy romp round Sandown, in what was ironically called the Future Stars Chase. Rex quondam rex futurus?
DJAKADAM: I would have to answer that in the negative, since I’m a Djakadam man for the 2016 festivals for several reasons, most importantly that he’s two years younger than Coneygree, and I thought there was a moment’s hesitation – costing him the length and a half? – when Ruby Walsh thought Coneygree would come back to him at Cheltenham.
DON COSSACK: Eight wins from nine, his third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham being his only defeat since April, 2014. He beat Djakadam at Punchestown, and to say that Djakadam was remembering his Cheltenham efforts partially belies my comment about the Ruby Walsh hesitation. But Don Cossack is also two years older than Djakadam.
DON POLI: What, another embryonic Gold Cup winner? That’s what victory in the RSA at Cheltenham usually suggests and he is only six right now, same age as Djakadam. He also failed at Punchestown afterwards, too much too soon for a ‘teenager.’
DOUVAN: There was no Punchestown bubble-burst for Douvan. He followed up his Supreme Novices Hurdle success at Cheltenham with the Punchestown Champion Novice, his fifth win in a row, as he completed the same double stablemate Vautour had done the previous season.
FAUGHEEN: Willie Mullins, responsible for Djakadam, Don Poli and Douvan, has a Champion Hurdle star with form figures that beats them all: 10 runs, 10 wins, with again the Cheltenham and Punchestown double achieved with ease.
FOX NORTON: I could guess at a dozen youngsters who might make the grade but, for now, I’ll side with dual novice-chase winner Fox Norton. I’m a big fan of trainer Neil Mulholland, and I’m drawn to horses classically bred on the Flat to jump round the park courses, though I’m not so sure about Cheltenham. Aintree 2016.
MILORD THOMAS: The Grand Steeplechase de Paris winner who has already captured a Grade 1 in the autumn-winter campaign. Still only six and they must surely give England a try. Not only stays but has courage and a natural jumping ability. Grand National? Cross-countries?
TRIOLO D’ALENE: You get attached to them when they’ve won you a race like the Hennessy, particularly at 20-1 (see Daqman Library list for 2014). Still only eight and Nicky Henderson has snook him down in the ratings to within 5lb of that winning day. Comeback kid.
MODUS CAN SHOW HIS CLASS AT TAUNTON
1.40 Taunton The top three in the betting are all with trainers in form. Lily Waugh comes off the back of a 13 length success at Wincanton last weekend. She has paid a price though and has top weight to carry today of 11-11 including her jockey’s seven pound claim. Although she has a big chance, it may be hard to defy the hefty burden.
Philip Hobbs runs Kayf Willow, also having won last time, beating Lady Of Longstone at Newton Abbot. Ciaran Gethings is a more than capable rider and is good value for his claim. Trip and ground are all in her favour and she poses a massive threat.
Making her handicap debut for Harry Fry is Lady Lamanvar. Although without a win, she’s run creditably in her five runs to date. Her last run at Uttoxeter proving her best run at a trip that looked short of her optimum. An opening mark of 116 looks quite lenient and she may have the pace and stamina to get home.
2.40 Taunton I’m looking forward to seeing Modus. A high class Bumper performer he chased home the very classy Moon Racer at Cheltenham before finishing third at Punchestown. He was sold subsequently, changed trainer and is likely to be a force in the Novice division this season.
In addition, Barry Geraghty has gone here today ahead of Cheltenham to ride this one only. The others will need to be very good to beat him.
3.40 Taunton Paul Nicholls holds the aces here. Howlongisafoot is the pick of Sam Twiston-Davies but I’m going to take a small chance with his other runner Black River.
Although he hasn’t much experience over fences, he beat Cheltenham Festival winner Irish Cavalier on his second run at Taunton and looks interesting off a mark of 132.
SIMPLY THE ONE AT LUDLOW
3.00 Ludlow Not much to choose from here. Highpower didn’t excel in his debut over fences. He was beating 17 lengths at Uttoxeter in a weak race. He won over hurdles after and that looks more his game.
A small case can be made for King Massini and others but Evan Williams charge is regressing fast and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to turn his form around here.
Simply The West has the most solid form. He has shown promise on his chase runs thus far and, if he can recreate any of those, this can be his maiden win over the larger obstacles.
WAIT ON RICHES FOR ANOTHER DAY
2.25 Clonmel Noel Meade sets Road To Riches onto another Gold Cup trail today. A dual Grade 1 winner and third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he’s undoubtedly a high class performer. Generally runs well fresh but I can’t help thinking that Meade would prefer a strong run three mile contest for him instead.
Two and half miles, while he has won at the trip before, is short of his best and if Felix Yonger shows up like he did in the second half of last season, he could be a big danger.
The Mullins horse has won over today’s trip in the passed but he also possesses an eye-catching turn of foot and jumps very quick to boot. If this turns into anything of a speed test, Felix Yonger is the one, but only for a small stake interest.
Mallowney travels like a very good horse in his races but doesn’t always find much off the bridle. I would also be very concerned about the trip for him. Two miles has seemed far enough for him in the past.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 4pts win LADY OF LAMANVAR (1.40 Taunton)
BET 2pts win FELIX YONGER (2.25 Clonmel)
BANKER: BET 10pts win MODUS (2.40 Taunton)
BET 4pts win SIMPLY THE WEST (3.00 Ludlow)
BET 2pts win and place BLACK RIVER (3.40 Taunton)
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