THREE NAPS ARE UP IN FIVE DAYS: Daqman made it three winning naps out of five yesterday, with Modus (WON 1-3). All were better odds at morning BETDAQ offers, and today and all the weekend the quality races, and tastier prices, are back. Daqman’s current naps sequence is 11321 and he’s had eight lays in a row.
9.8 CHELTENHAM BULL’S-EYE BET: Cheltenham, home of champions and scene of top trials today, sees the first clash in the jumps season proper between Daqman and Pricewise (1.05 and 2.50 races). One of them features Daqman’s first Bull’s-Eye Bet – offered at 9.8 this morning – and his stakes are raised all round to win 30.
KENT BATTING FIRST FOR HAT-TRICK HENDERSON
1.05 Cheltenham It’s a delight to see a long handicap here of 21lb.; two stone, in fact, if the claimers at the bottom can make their full allowance count. But is there a flaw (or two) in it?
Let’s start with horses aged 9 or 10; they will be eligible for veterans’ races in not much more than six weeks’ time, so I would discount them.
Of these old-timers, Astracad has made 20 appearances at Cheltenham for just two successes, both at least four years ago, and Sew On Target (second last year) has been seen there 11 times for one win.
Stables in form are Henry Oliver (form figures 211233), who trains Keel Haul; Even Williams (110311 still standing), who saddles Going Concern; Venetia Williams (11112 until a poor day at Ludlow yesterday) and Nicky Henderson (12110131), who have The Clock Leary and Lough Kent respectively.
But note that Minella Present and La Vaticane both missed the cut for tomorrow’s PP Gold Cup. Whether it’s quite far enough for them in this alternative may depend on the pace and any further rain.
Minella Present was a 142 hurdler and runs here off a 130 chase mark, though I’m worried about his jumping skills for this tough track, and rain is also a worry. La Vaticane, has been jumping out of the mud at Auteuil.
The Clock Leary was struck with a 12lb rise for his reappearance win last season and we haven’t seen him for a year.
Loch Kent is 15lb higher than for his last success. Seven winners out of 10 in the decade have carried 10st 9lb or less, but Lough Kent’s stable has supplied the three other winners, off 11-5, 11-6 and 11-7, in a hat-trick sequence. Lough Kent has 11-8!
Going Concern is 2-2 at Cheltenham but I mean defeats not wins. Pearls Legend has to be considered, consistent at a higher level and with a good run back under his belt.
VERDICT: Any one of Lough Kent, La Vaticane and The Clock Leary could be the big improver, while Pearls Legend is an established eight-year-old, the winning age group for the last four seasons. The worry about The Clock Leary is that he’s a glass horse, and about Pearls Legend is that he’s well known to the handicapper.
If this were a hurdle, La Vaticane would have something to find with Lough Kent, who goes well fresh, jumps superbly and is from the winningmost yard in the race (N Henderson form figures 1110).
I took 9.8, and that’s a good start for my bull’s-eye bets. I must go for 50-up in these races, at these prices, when a couple of winners in 10 tries gives me that much profit. My record is that I get more.
‘MEE’ SET TO GIVE NICHOLLS MORE OF THAT
1.40 Cheltenham (Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase) This race has had some wonderful winners (Denman 2006), not least back-to-back success for David Pipe with Dynaste and Grands Crus.
Here’s another glass horse, More Of That, who was The Shard when he took the World Hurdle but a splinter of that in his last start a year ago.
He is a big horse, obviously, suited to Cheltenham but is also pretty much an old man, at age seven, in terms of novice chasing: you have to go a long way back to find the last winner of this over the age of six. It’s ditto Ballyalton, who ran second to Faugheen in the 2014 Neptune.
The debates with the Pipe runner, Dell’ Arca, is whether he can give the weight (only one horse has done so in the last six years) and how much should we read into his second to Coneygree a year ago.
Might Bite was behind the leading protagonists in this as a hurdler but his dam was sister to a Cheltenham Foxhunter winner, and ‘he can jump brilliant’ is the racing grammar from Seven Barrows.
Well-bred for chasing, As De Mee has the benefit of an outing and Paul Nicholls is bullish. His 4.7 on BETDAQ this morning may look generous after the event.
VERDICT: Dell’Arca is a bit small to be giving weight away all round here, whereas Might Bite is a big, classy beast who ‘could be anything.’ Talking of size and class, More Of That had it in spades over hurdles but is back in trip and has something to prove after his long lay-off.
As De Mee is bred for the job and from a yard that does well in this sphere. Did nothing but improve last season and, with his run back boosted, and More Of That a false favourite in my eyes, the 4.7 looks generous.
PIPE UNCORKS ‘CHAMPERS’ WITH WEIGHT PULL
2.15 Cheltenham That novice chase is a matter of taking sides at a price, which wins you money in the long run if you’re right just some of the time. This Neptune test is no different, though Alcala, yet another glass horse today, is over my betting weir at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning, clearly not fancied.
It’s a day of days for rising star trainer, Neil Mulholland (Minella Present in the first), who has watched Shantou Village’s form get boosted.
Penglai Pavilion won a Neptune test in October for last year’s winning trainer and the market says he’ll be hard to beat.
But Champers On Ice is a tough pointer whose bumper form was boosted by second and third before and after the event, including one successful at Galway.
He is getting weight all round here – 7lb from the morning favourite – and, whatever their futures, he must win under today’s conditions if he is to justify David Pipe’s high praise, though could do with the forecast showers.
IRON-HORSE SAINT ARE LOOKS A BANKS PLAYER
2.50 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) Rivage d’Or won the big one at Cheltenham on good ground in March, when those amazingly-tough cross-country ever-presents Any Currency and Uncle Junior filled the places.
They may all run well again but one of the new kids on the block with light weights today must surely take this at the start of the Glenfarclas series if they are to be long-term banks stars.
With Balthazar King still in recovery, and not likely to appear until the Cheltenham Festival, Philip Hobbs relies on Allthekingshorses.
Not yet in the same class but likes the long trip and too big at 29.0 on BETDAQ if the rain has stayed away.
I can see the pace being set by Grand National runner-up Saint Are, trying to do a Balthazar King by joining the cross-country ranks, and Loose Chips, from an in-form stable.
The latest Enda Bolger find, Josies Order, fit from a run back over hurdles, is a hold-up horse with no weight, and Dogora is still young enough to do better though the grey’s efforts in this discipline to date suggest that this is half a mile too short a trip.
VERDICT: They’re great spectacles, these banks races, and Enda Bolger is their great trainer. Marvellous 106% BETDAQ list this morning, with Josies Order a must at the weights, despite favouritism around 5.0.
I think the redoubtable Saint Are (12.0), who has a fine record over fences at Cheltenham and in the Grand National, will give them all a jumping lesson and should lack nothing for fitness: he was placed in the Murphy and the Becher Chase on his first two runs last season.
I’ll worry that something else off 10st 7lb or less will join in but Josies Order should have their measure and Saint Are can stay on into a place at least.
3.25 Cheltenham The two last winning trainers – Tony Martin and John Ferguson – may fight it out with Galizzi (a tasty 13.5 in the BETDAQ orange as I write) and Dollar And A Dream (around 5.0). Five of the last six winners have been four-year-olds.
MASTER JAKE A BANKER START TO THE DAY
THE NAP: Back to the beginning. The Dan Skelton yard is oozing confidence about Master Jake, a banker start to the day at Hexham (12.40).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except the banker at SP)
BANKER: 20pts win (nap) MASTER JAKE (12.40 Hexham)
BULLS-EYE BET (to win 50): 5.6pts win LOUGH KENT (1.05 Cheltenham)
BET 8pts win AS DE MEE (1.40 Cheltenham)
BET 11pts win CHAMPERS ON ICE (2.15 Cheltenham)
BET 7.5pts win JOSIES ORDER, and 2.7pts win and place SAINT ARE (2.50 Cheltenham)
BET 7.5pts win DOLLAR AND A DREAM, and 2.4pts win and place GALIZZI (3.25 Cheltenham)
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