BACK-TO-BACK BANKER NAPS UP: Daqman landed another hot nap yesterday, making it four from six, with his second winning banker bet in two days, 18-lengths winner Master Jake (WON 4-11). His main bets now have these sequences:
Naps form: 113211
Bankers: 211
Lays: 11111111
PROFIT THE ORDER OF THE DAY: He made a profit on the day, the first day of the Cheltenham Open Meeting, with three successful bets, one of them shared with Pricewise, so opening exchanges with the Racing Post tipster finished 1-1:
WIN: Master Jake (banker, WON 4-11)
WIN: Josies Order (WON 11-4)
WIN: Galizzi (place, 2nd 14-1)
THIS MARATHON IS THE RIGHT TRIP FOR SEGO
1.50 Cheltenham Pricewise waxes lyrical today with an opening line from Let It Be. But who will whisper words of wisdom? I’ll try to meet the challenge, though singing in the rain in tweeds and wellies isn’t my forte. The day is gonna be wet, wet, wet.
Seven out of the last 10 winners of this Grade-3 marathon carried 10st 10lb or less but Sego Success, only a tad higher, jumped well and had every chance up the hill in the NH Chase (4m) on today’s course at the festival (Cogry behind; Perfect Candidate last to finish). This 3m 3f looks the right trip for Sego.
Perfect Candidate (2nd), Audacious Plan (4th) and Azure Fly (not jump well) reappeared on today’s course in October.
Shotgun Paddy was second in the NH Chase in 2014 but has to bounce back. So, too, Sausalito Sunrise after a poor reappearance run; he likes Cheltenham.
Just A Par won the Sandown Gold Cup in the Spring but he’s not easy to get right and he is on a training trajectory for the Grand National.
Knockanrawley is a lazy horse, yet runs well after a lay-off, and Kim Bailey has had six winners since bonfire night, so I’m bound to say he’s in cracking form, and could go close despite the trainer’s insistence that this is a prep race.
Jonjo O’Neill’s yard is on the upswing, has had four wins in four days, and could have more of that! Upswing must improve but has the stamina for this.
BETDAQ VALUE: Sego Success to win at 10.5; Knockanrawley win and place at 16.5.
RELY ON NICHOLLS’ ART IN THE BIG CHASE
2.25 Cheltenham (PP Gold Cup) The favourite, Kings Palace, looks there to be shot at with his big weight after 248 days’ absence and with the Pipe runners (2-31) blowing up at the business end yesterday. See how Un Temps Pour Tout goes in an earlier race.
But Kings Palace has won only 3m small-field events, beating just seven finishers in his hat-trick and jumping badly in a proper race at Cheltenham in March (beaten at the last two festivals).
I laid him for a place at 3.85 this morning, and will do so again if it comes up mud. He’s a light-framed horse who’s happiest skipping round virtually on his own. Pipe even worries that he hasn’t got his confidence back.
He has a better chance with Monetaire, who is closely matched with Darna and Buywise but they all look vulnerable to younger horses.
In fact, half this field that can’t win – nine out of 10 younger than eight – which narrows the most productive area (7 out of 8 winners below 11st) to just five seven-year-olds, and Art Mauresque.
The luckless Shanpallas, hampered when just getting into the Galway Plate then brought down in the Ladbrokes Munster National, prefers good ground and didn’t quite get home in this last year.
Generous Ransom ran two cracking races at Cheltenham in the early part of the year, including at the festival and is not unduly punished under Daryl Jacob, who is 1134 on him over fences.
Annacotty won a Grade-3 over today’s course and distance in January but was not effective at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, and has moved to Alan King, who reckons he could be one to catch fresh.
Similarly, Splash of Ginger who disappointed after a Grade-3 win in January, was also aimed high afterwards.
Present View won at the festival in 2014 and was a good third in this gold cup a year ago. He will have been geared up for the race again, with first-time blinkers to try to pinch a couple of lengths and concentrate his mind.
The snag with Shanpallas, Generous Ransom, Splash Of Ginge and Present View is that their yards are not winning races. Alan King’ (Annacotty) doesn’t have a good strike rate but at least his runners are reaching the frame.
However, Nick Gifford’s yard tends to aim at one-offs and he’s done nothing wrong in laying Generous Ransom out for this, giving him a hurdles prep after a wind op.
Third in a big field at the Cheltenham Festival, and has a few pounds in hand of Art Mauresque on a line through Irish Cavalier.
Art Mauresque has that ‘could be anything’ look; a recent winner at Cheltenham, and – says Paul Nicholls – ‘grown up’ since last winter. Still only five and seems sure to improve.
BETDAQ VALUE: You could make a case for a dozen of these so you don’t want a short price. With the advent of rain, I’ll stick to the bottom of the handicap with Art Mauresque (13.0) and Generous Ransom (19.5). Place lay Kings Palace.
But, if I back Art Mauresque, I must have a pound on stablemate Sound Investment (24.0), described by my man in the long grass as a ‘stunning improver’ at Ditcheat.
DREAM CHANCE IF THE GROUND TURNS SOFT
3.00 Cheltenham Again, the three old-timers in this, and the half-dozen topweights have very little chance on the stats (only one older than seven in the decade; only one carrying above 10st 13lb).
And again, we are likely to see a Pipe horse – Batavir – bowling along in front, with Face Value, Rons Dream, Sir Mangan and Atlantic Gold in the van.
Like Sir Mangan in England, The Job Is Right is a once-a-year horse who has yet to handle the big-match racetracks.
The more mud the merrier for Rons Dream but Atlantic Gold and Un Ace prefer a sound surface. Milan Bound is in form but his Cheltenham record is 400, whereas Dark Spirit is 201 but high in the weights now.
Paul Nicholls has shelved his plan to send little Morito Du Berlais over fences, at least temporarily, but he has to improve to win this. Can blinkers do the trick? So Fine is at his best at home but rain would scupper his chances.
BETDAQ VALUE: In a wide-open contest, I shall assume plenty of rain and have a bit of win and place Rons Dream at 19.0. Her only defeat in soft ground this year came in a Grade 1 novice, and she’s something of a Hidden Horse after struggling on good ground.
REVOLUTIONIST NAPPED IN LADBROKES RACE
2.00 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap) Front-runner Mulzamm usually gets caught and the one to do it is Revolutionist, who can extend his sequence.
2.45 Punchestown As in yesterday’s cross-country, the market was made by a plethora of much-loved old favourites, but they hadn’t the toe of the youngster Josies Orders.
So I’m surprised to see the same trainer – who else but Enda Bolger? – with a 5.6 shot here, Love Rory, who has won the race the last twice.
Ok, some of the money is support for Nina Carberry (Quantativeeasing), who won on Josie, and some for On His Own, who is high class on his day.
But I love these Bolger youngsters in the Banks races.
3.10 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes) Maverick Wave, who drops back from Group/Grade-1 company, has an excellent AW CV and 9.2 on BETDAQ looked tasty this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except AW, which are to win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5.2pts win SEGO SUCCESS; 3.2pts win and place KNOCKANRAWLEY (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win (nap) REVOLUTIONIST (2.00 Lingfield)
TRIPLE WHAMMY ( targeting lay, win and place): 5pts place lay KINGS PALACE plus BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4pts win ART MAURESQUE, 2.7pts win and place GENEROUS RANSOM, 2pts win and place SOUND INVESTMENT (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET 6.5pts win LOVE RORY (2.45 Punchestown)
BET 1.5pts win and place RONS DREAM (3.00 Cheltenham)
BET 2.3pts win MAVERICK WAVE (3.10 Lingfield)
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