14-1 DREAM WINNER FOR DAQMAN: When Daqman this week published his horses to follow of bankers for Christmas, he also promised big-priced outsiders and, after three near misses, he hit target with Rons Dream (WON 14-1) at Cheltenham yesterday. Here are his four profitable win-and-place hits on Friday and Saturday (BETDAQ offers taken are on the right):
WIN Galizzi (2nd 14-1)
WIN Knockanrawley (3rd 14-1 <16.5)
WIN Sound Investment (3rd 20-1 <24.0)
WIN Rons Dream (WON 14-1 <19.0)
FAST 5-1 LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Four winning bets yesterday (five if you count win and placed separately) took Daqman into a quick 5-1 lead over Pricewise after Friday’s 1-1 draw. They clash again today in the 2.10 and 2.40 at Cheltenham. Their totals in two years are now Daqman 251, Pricewise 97.
NOW IT’S NINE LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman also promised to knock out some favourites, and yesterday he dared to lay the PP Power Chase market leader. In fact, it was a triple dare in that he laid it for a place: Kings Palace finished 11th at 13-2 favourite. It was our man’s ninth consecutive winning lay:
WIN Bathos (unplaced 4-1)
WIN Grendisar (4th 9-4 favourite)
WIN Zebstar, place lay (unplaced 12-1)
WIN Cameraman (2nd 9-4 favourite)
WIN Gleneagles (unplaced 9-4)
WIN Wild Storm (unplaced 5-2 favourite)
WIN Fame Game (unplaced 4-1 favourite)
WIN Alfie Spinner (unplaced 14-1)
WIN Kings Palace, place lay (unplaced 13-2 favourite)
IT’S LEGS-ELEVEN FAUGHEEN BARRING ACCIDENT
Daq Multiples to the rescue. I’ve never tipped a banker bet in my morning column at less than around 1-3 (33% profit), though some have ended up that way.
Not even the BETDAQ orange can offer better than the bookies 1-5 this morning about Faugheen at Punchestown. Only an accident can stop the 10 times unbeaten Champion Hurdler.
Faugheen figures in my Christmas bankers list, but so, too, does Fox Norton at Cheltenham. It’s his big test today, as BETDAQ offers of 7.0 suggest (5-1 with Corals, Hills, Betfred).
But, with a profit on the first two days of this festival-like bonanza of racing at Cheltenham, I shall put them both into some Daq Multiples. First let’s look at each Cheltenham race separately.
EARLY MARKET MOVE FOR ALTIOR OVER MAPUTO
1.00 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Trial) Smart sorts like Cue Card and Dodging Bullets have won this recently, with five-year-olds 6, four-year-olds 4 in the decade.
Those stats don’t recommend the older Mister Miyagi, nor does Drumlee Sunset’s 7lb pull after their one-two over today’s CD in October.
At 13-2 or 6-1 this morning, the pair are alongside Simon Squirrel, described by Paul Nicholls as making ‘remarkable’ improvement but with fears about the soft ground. A line through his runner-up on the last day has him inferior on form to Mister Miyagi.
The soft surface is the same for them all, as the racing rebuff goes, with the nine wins registered by Altior, Maputo and Viens Chercher all on good or firmer ground.
And, with not much collateral form, it’s guesswork beyond the fact that we assume that the big stables here are choosing from a wealth of Supreme Novice potential in their yards.
What we do know is that four or five winners were behind Altior (trainer Henderson) in his two hurdles wins and at least 11 behind Maputo (Ferguson) in his last four successes.
Maputo is bred for a Classic but the snag is that Ferguson has been missing strike badly, with a frustrating sequence of 422430432320. I shall have my pound on Altior who, at 3.0, edged out the paper-favourite Maputo at around 10 a.m.
‘FOX’ FABULOUS VALUE IN 100% BETDAQ ORANGE
1.35 Cheltenham (Arkle Trophy Trial) Paul Nicholls’ record in six seasons is 111142 but no winners in the last decade, though they include star names like Fair Along and Al Ferof, have won at Cheltenham the following March.
When they asked Bath-trainer Neil Mulholland about Minella Present (2nd) and Shantou Village (storming 15-lengths winner) on Friday, all he wanted to talk about was Fox Norton in this.
Fox Norton’s jumping improved at Market Rasen on the last day, but that’s more a hilly Aintree than a mountainous Cheltenham.
And, again, the Hobbs-Johnson combo will be very hard to beat: Garde La Victoire pipped Vaniteux in the Greatwood on this card a year ago, shaped well enough in his debut chase a fortnight ago and gets 4lb from Fox Norton.
Nicholls sends out two against his Somerset rival: Dormello Mio has plenty of chasing experience but seems pegged as a class-3 horse, and Calipto looked a much better proposition, jumping well, in a beginners’ chase at Fontwell.
All these novice races are tough but the good news is a 100% ‘book’ of offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning, a level playing-field for punters. Be lucky and pick the right one.
I see the fixed-odds division of Betfair is offering 5-1 Fox Norton, whereas I can exchange 7.6 on BETDAQ. No contest.
‘GORGEHOUS’ FOR SOUTHERN NATIONAL REPEAT
1.50 Fontwell (Southern National) Can’t have Scottish National runner-up Big Occasion until Team Pipe shows some form.
Express Du Berlais (9.6 on BETDAQ) was shrewdly given a good (winning) test on this course in the Spring but will he act on soft ground?
Gorgehous Lliege (6.8) and Pete The Feat also love this track, and ‘Gorgeous’ (I refer of course to trainer Venetia Williams) won this race last year.
With incredible dexterity, Venetia has the horse back to an identical mark and has got the soft surface he needs.
SIMPLY NED’S BIG CHANCE TO NAIL THE BIG TIME
2.10 Cheltenham Chase Sprinter Sacre’s third comeback and his fifth appearance since his sequence of 14 wins from 16 races came to an end in April 2013.
Though he started favourite for three of his four defeats since then, neither his connections nor his public want to let him go and move on from a love affair that brought them 10 consecutive days of champagne.
The horse that beat him on the last day at Sandown in the Spring had himself won only one other race since Sprinter Sacre’s April 2013 success.
But this seems even weaker. Mr Mole was nearly four lengths behind him at Sandown and meets him here on 10lb worse terms. Somersby was a long way back.
So it’s all down to Simply Ned, 3.95 in another 100% BETDAQ orange as I write. He was an unlucky runner-up in this last year, because of the slow-run race, and he’s 10lb superior to Croco Bay on last month’s Kelso form, albeit on a firm surface.
Hopefully the lesson of last year will have been learned. He’s very much an autumn horse and should hold his form from Kelso, particularly with his stable in such fine fettle, currently showing form figures (still standing) of 121012114.
ALL ABOARD THE GREATWOOD EXPRESS AT 24.0
2.40 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) Richard Johnson has stayed on board Mad Jack Mytton after giving him his prep at Wetherby last month, runner-up that day giving 12lb to the winner. The worry now is the ground.
The Wetherby winner was Superb Story, another who prefers a sound surface. He was beaten out of sight by Devilment at Doncaster in the Spring.
Devilment was back to form last month, returning to Cheltenham to prove his Triumph Hurdle fourth was no fluke, and he has won on good, soft and AW.
The snag is that poor recent strike record of trainer John Ferguson, who also runs Nabucco. If Maputo runs well in the first, it will give you encouragement, but the market went against him early mouse.
The soft surface will suit Waxies Dargle but he needed a run back last year after both winter break and summer holiday, and he’s up in the weights for winning the Ladbrokes Ireland Hurdle.
There’s always a snag. With Mick Jazz it’s that he’s still a maiden, but he’s lightly raced and first-time blinkers could boost his chance, though it’s all looking a bit desperate with a hood already in place.
With Days Of Heaven it’s that he’s a scaredy cat, nervous of crowds and the preliminaries. Of the pair, I’ll lay Mick Jazz: I can’t recall a four-race maiden (only two over hurdles) in hood and tongue-tie placing in a race of this calibre at a crazy 9.0.
Old Guard bolted up on his recent return at Cheltenham and Paul Nicholls is bullish for the season ahead, though another who’s nervous about the ground. Stablemate Bouvreuil, Fred Winter runner-up on this course, will welcome more rain.
I laid Pipe’s Kings Palace yesterday, and wish I’d also opposed his stablemate Un Temps Pour Tout. I certainly can’t fancy Bidourey with the yard deeper in the doldrums.
Cesarewitch fourth Renneti is not straightforward – ‘it’s a question of keeping his head right’, says Ruby Walsh – so rarely holds his form.
Ebony Express impressed when winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown in March a few days before he flopped – but no disgrace as the race came too soon – when trying to land a bonus in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. May still be well handicapped.
BETDAQ VALUE: Old Guard is a strong Ditcheat fancy at 16.5 and Ebony Express an eye-opening 25.0 in a 104% orange as I write.. and I do mean Bull’s-Eye Bet opening! Only sorry I didn’t go for the 50 points with Rons Dream yesterday.
Remember, we’re not talking winners on the day. As with bankers, or any other bet, we must talk long-term gain, and adjust our stakes accordingly.
If you give me 19.0 a Rons Dream, I need one winner in 18 to show a profit. And this column has had 251 feature-race successes at various odds in two years. I’ll live the dream as long as I can.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 10pts win (nap) ALTIOR (1.00 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win FOX NORTON (1.35 Cheltenham)
BET 3.4pts win GORGEHOUS LLIEGE and 2.3pts win EXPRESS DU BERLAIS (1.50 Fontwell)
BET 6.5pts win SIMPLY NED (2.10 Cheltenham)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts for a place MICK JAZZ; plus BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.2pts win and place OLD GUARD and 2pts win and place EBONY EXPRESS (2.40 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 3pts win Christmas Bankers double FOX NORTON (1.35 Cheltenham) and FAUGHEEN (2.15 Punchestown)
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