NAPS HAT-TRICK A GIFT AT 11-4: Daqman landed a near-perfect nap on the day of his value-betting declaration yesterday: the form horse from a rising-star stable should have been half the price. Shaky Gift (WON 11-4) was his third winning best bet in a row and his seventh from the last 10 for figures of 1132110111. With 133-points profit from the 10 bets to 20 points stakes, the winners were:
WON 4-6 Arctic Fire
WON 11-4 Salubrious
WON 1-3 Modus
WON 4-11 Master Jake
WON 2-1 Altior
WON 4-5 Le Mercurey
WON 11-4 Shady Gift
THREE SHADES OF DARK HORSE: Today Daqman looks at the phenomenon of dark horses; what they are, where to find them at Chepstow, Fairyhouse and Warwick today. They come in three varieties. One is napped is at Chepstow.
THE RACING DAY: SEARCHING FOR A DARK HORSE..
Dark horses come in three shades. This column found one, Le Mercurey, on Monday – ‘my favourite dark horse in the yard,’ said Paul Nicholls – so dark yet it steamed in to odds-on favourite!
How can that be? Well, all dark horses are unexposed animals. But Type A is starting out on his career, maybe with a big home reputation.
The second type is the ‘Hidden Horse’, buried in a handicap, not yet allowed to show his full worth. But the easiest ones to catch are a third element, The Improver.
The Improver is your absolute friend, loyally he comes good for you when exposed animals at the front of the market are vulnerable to his progress, like Old Guard on Saturday.
Dark horses abound in novice hurdles. You look at the field and know that somewhere in one of them today is a potential gem of a horse. The only way to catch him is to follow the market so he is Type A.
And, at his short price, he is going to be the worst of the three dark-horse assortments, because – in the longer term – he doesn’t win enough times at the odds available.
12.30 and 1.00 Fairyhouse Willie Mullins is yer man for dark horses in these two maiden hurdles; two winners in four years in the first of them, three out of four in the second.
Big things are expected of the not-so-dark Open Eagle (12.30), the 12-lengths winner of the 2014 November Handicap on the Flat, who takes a second crack at hurdling today after nine months off to mature and get his jumping sorted.
The 1.00 sees stablemate Up For Review facing the staying power of Space Cadet (dam related to a Scottish National winner) but with Noel Meade ‘expecting’ Ice Cold Soul to go well.
12.40 Warwick and 2.30 Chepstow Harry Cobden is the new Harry Derham at Ditcheat, producing the goods – Old Guard – to perfection on Saturday.
Now here he is on a dark horse (he’s actually a grey), Varom (12.40), given a handy handicap slot in a conditionals-only race. Vroom, vroom!
Similarly, Boyfromnowhere (2.30 Chepstow) is unexposed but turned from dark to a dazzling white market hope because trained by man-of-the-moment Neil Mulholland and because propping up the handicap.
I shall get round this situation by backing them stop at a winner, staking to back the ‘Boy’ if Varom loses but with an additional investment to cover any loss on the first bet.
12.50 and 1.20 Chepstow In his Racing Post stable tour, Evan Williams doesn’t even give a mench to Nansaroy (12.50) or Maxanisi (1.20), but Venetia Williams is kind enough to inform us that we won’t see the best of Mixchievous (12.50) until he’s a bit older and that Vic De Touzaine (1.20) is prepping for a chase career.
Incidentally, a miracle happened yesterday when the Post page-plotters gave us a little pullout for Venetia, but they were back to their old ways today, spreading Evans Williams across the fold, so that we have to tear out separate pages.
It’s not Newtonian physics or climbing Ben Nevis to make a spread across the same broadsheet so that it lifts out intact.
2.50 Warwick Now here’s a real dark horse, and he’s from the same stable as Le Mercurey. What’s more, Le Prezien is running for one of the meeting’s sponsors.
Even better, the odds-on favourite pushes Le Prezien out to 7.2 on BETDAQ this morning with better odds for the place (three chances of winning) than is that favourite, Yanworth, for the win.
… AND HUNTING DOWN A WORTHWHILE NAP
3.30 Chepstow Despite being big and backward until now, Toowomba has managed to win two chases and looks nicely placed in the handicap here, with trainer and jockey both in form and the mud to help.
Morning-paper-favourite Tolkeins Tango won first run back last season but Toowoomba leapfrogged him in the BETDAQ market as Tango drifted to an alarming 4.9, very easy to back.
Quite By Chance trailed in at the end of last season, and pulled up on his return while, though front-runner Winston Churchill also won first time back last term, he’s unlikely to do any better at age nine, whereas Toowoomba is thought to be Dark Horse Type C: the improver.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win VAROM (12.40 Warwick), if lose 6pts win BOYFROMNOWHERE (2.30 Chepstow)
BET 3pts win and place LE PREZIEN (2.50 Warwick)
BET 7pts win (nap) TOOWOOMBA (3.30 Chepstow)
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