DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW: We’ve reached the end of the 2015 Race to Dubai and unlike the last few years there’s still some suspense to the proceedings, as seven players could still be crowned champion based on what happens at this week’s DP World Tour Championship. Those players are: Rory McIlroy, who sits atop the standings and is therefore in control of his own destiny; Danny Willett, who has pulled so close to McIlroy that he’s guaranteed to pass him if he beats him this week; Justin Rose, who wins the whole thing if he pulls out a victory this week and both McIlroy and Willett finish third or worse; Shane Lowry and Louis Ooosthuizen, both needing to either win or finish second and have McIlroy and Willett falter (9th or worse for Lowry, 12th or worse for Oosthuizen); the red-hot Branden Grace, who needs to win without McIlroy/Willett finishing second OR finish second himself while both McIlory and Willett place 43rd or worse; and the unlikely Byeong-Hun An, who must win and have both McIlroy and Willett finish 29th or worse.
Of course, all these scenarios and different possibilities just add to what is already a great event, as 58 of the top 60 players in the Race to Dubai standings (plus Stephen Gallacher and Alejandro Canizares) will battle it out at the Jumeirah Golf Estates Earth Course, a bombers’ paradise that measures 7,675 yards and features generous fairways and large greens.
This tournament has been totally dominated by long hitters since its inception six years ago, with the winners (Westwood, Karlsson, Quiros, McIlroy, Stenson twice) all ranking in the top-8 in driving distance they year they won. The game plan is simple at Jumeirah’s Earth Course: hit it as far as you possibly can (you could land a jumbo jet on some of those fairways), try to get yourself on the right area of the large but heavily contoured greens, and see if you can make a few putts (though based on the fact that last year’s champion Henrik Stenson ranked 24th in the field in putts per round, making putts may not necessarily be a requirement). If you’re a purist who values shotmaking and creativity, this is probably not your favorite week on the schedule. May as well make it a profitable week then, eh? We’re here to help…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Rose (10.0)- The are three clear favorites this week: McIlroy, two-time defending champ Henrik Stenson, and Rose, who has been playing great golf lately and who’s priced a bit more reasonably than Rory (5.9) or Stenson (6.4). Rose has yet to win this tournament but he’s come awfully close, sharing runner-up honors with McIlroy and Victor Dubuisson last year and finishing second alone in 2012, when he closed with a 62. Sandwiched in-between those performances was a 10th-place showing in 2013, so the Englishman obviously feels very comfortable at Jumeirah Estates. In his last eleven worldwide events he’s netted eight top-7 finishes and a win at last month’s UBS Hong Kong Open, so Rose is truly firing on all cylinders right now. Short odds are never fun when you’re talking about the outright market of a golf tournament, but I think Rose is a worthwhile investment this week.
Branden Grace (24.0)- Grace has been rolling for the past six months and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, finishing 5th at the HSBC Champions two weeks ago and 22nd at last week’s BMW Championship. He’s got a good history in this event, finishing 6th in 2012 and 9th last year, and that shouldn’t be surprising considering that Jumeirah’s Earth Course is very similar stylistically to the courses that he grew up on in South Africa (it’s worth noting that Grace has had great success in this part of the world, winning in Qatar a few months ago). Grace proved in the majors this year that he’s capable of playing his best on the very biggest of stages, and with an opportunity to win the Race to Dubai still out there (see above), this week certainly qualifies as a big stage. I like his chances.
Andy Sullivan (82.0)- Sullivan is putting the finishing touches on a career year, as he was the only player on the European Tour to win three times this season. He’s a little under the radar this week after sleepwalking through a couple of events following last month’s win in Portugal, but he was fully plugged-in last weekend, closing with 67-65 to finish 17th at the BMW Masters. He played a good three rounds here last year after opening with a 73 and he finished 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic a few months ago, so he should be supremely comfortable with his surroundings this week. At a price like 82.0, the young Englishman is worth a small bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Danny Willett (1.9) vs. Ian Poulter (2.0)
Willett looked like he was running on fumes last week and he basically admitted as much, calling his game “stale” while complaining about Rory McIlroy’s alleged special treatment from Tour officials. He’s also never played particularly well in this event, finishing no better than 21st in four appearances. Poulter, on the other hand, has finished second here twice, most recently in 2013, and has never placed worse than 26th in six attempts. Recommendation: Poulter at 2.0
Shane Lowry (1.91) vs. Francesco Molinari (1.91)
Molinari has played well in this tournament in the past but his lack of distance off the tee puts him at an obvious disadvantage, a problem that Lowry doesn’t have to contend with. Lowry has also shown that he knows his way around the Earth Course, finishing 5th here last year and 8th in 2011, and his final round 68 at last week’s BMW Masters should give him an extra jolt of confidence. Molinari may be the most dangerous short-hitter in the field, but I don’t like him heads-up against Lowry. Recommendation: Lowry at 1.91
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