TON-UP CHAMPION HURDLE TIP: Paul Nicholls has declared his Greatwood winner a Champion Hurdle hope, yet he was introduced at 36.0 in the ante-post BETDAQ market. Daqman goes for a win-100 ton-up punt with a trade in mind.
GET ON THE NEW FAVOURITES: After his betting debate on staking plans earlier in the week, and yesterday’s view of dark horses, Daqman today nominates new favourites as a good launchpad for your day’s betting.
SEVEN NAPS UP OUT OF 11: Not Daqman’s day yesterday, though the money was down. After a hefty gamble, his nap, Toowoomba, failed to run his race, and newcomer Le Prezien, the only one backed against on odds-on favourite, led two out until the run-in. Naps figures 11321101110.
ON GUARD! TAKE BETDAQ 36.0 FOR THE CHAMPION
Back BETDAQ big odds and have something to crow about! Rooster Booster was the last Greatwood Hurdle winner (2002) to go on to win the Champion Hurdle the following March.
But, introduced at 36.0 by BETDAQ in their ante-post list, Old Guard – as low as 25-1 with Corals, Ladbroke and Betfred – was impressive the way he quickened to win that race on Saturday.
It’s a long road to Cheltenham but trainer Paul Nicholls’ response: ‘I’m preparing him for the Champion Hurdle.’
And, within 24 hours, the Champion favourite, Faugheen, shot himself in the foot, swerving away from a challenge to Nichols Canyon in the Morgiana at Punchestown.
Faugheen is going to have to come back from that, and is one to take on until he does. Nichols Canyon’s victory, however aggressive, was gained over a suspect favourite.
Coneygree is also under a cloud and has lost his position as Gold Cup favourite, as if to underline the fickleness of the ante-post markets.
As I said on Wednesday about dark horses, and earlier about ante-post bets, the aim is to find improvers, and improvement behind suspect market leaders is what wins you money.
The target in ante-post bets is about finding odds which could shrink come the big day, so giving you ‘overs’ to play with and, therefore, trade options and/or an underround for the race.
I say ‘come the day’ but, in fact, there are potential improvers – including Old Guard – who are likely to win trials between now and Cheltenham, and have their odds reduced.
I am already on a Nicholls for Cheltenham. This column took 16.5 Vibrato Valtat for the Champion Chase, and he’s now 12s with those big-name bookies. He will have another trial, too.
HOT SPOT: I’m looking forward, with a tinge of sadness, to Sunday’s Ladbrokes Troytown Chase at Navan, which last year produced a big winner for me in the seven-year-old Balbriggan, and I looked forward to a big future for him in staying chases. Unfortunately, he was lost to us in his next race.
The stats say that eight out of 10 Troytown winners carry 10st 9lb or less, and that seven out of 10 are below the age of nine.
Roosting this time, waiting for a peck at gold, are no few than 13 of the 19 declared. I’m keen to see Knockanarrigan, Sandra Hughes’ winner of four chases out of five who is shaping up well for one of the winter Nationals.
ARISE SIR DES BUT DON’T EXPECT BIG-RACE MIRACLE
12.55 Thurles Serious horses appear on the roll of honour. But this has been not so much a stepping-stone to greatness more a restorative for fallen warriors (Roi du Mee, Joncol, War Of Attrition) who would never really grace the big stage again.
Now the dual Cheltenham Festival winner Sir Des Champs (2.34 on BETDAQ this morning) tries to ‘do a Sprinter Sacre’ and come back from the dead.
The stats say he will, but that the lesson for punters is that, though both seemingly have their acts together again, they will have huge difficulty returning to big-time roles. Not many go back to the top.
HAVE A FEW BOB ON THE NEW FAVOURITES..
1.30 Market Rasen Front-runner Dartford Warbler looks nicely poised at the foot of the handicap but may be a false paper-favourite (0-7 over fences).
I say paper favourite because, in the actual market, as I write, he has just been leapfrogged by Cloudy Bob.
New favourites are always interesting and the Berkshire raider loves this track, ran well on his return and now has his ground: I took 4.5.
1.50 Wincanton The same thing has happened here. You have a new favourite, Miles To Memphis, twice a winner first time out, and talked up in the Alan King stable tour, albeit by a hack: 3.55 on BETDAQ, as I write.
2.05 Market Rasen Since Clondaw Banker returned to form in a conditionals’ race on the last day, he is not penalised, and the boy keeps the mount.
But Brave Spartacus, Medicine Hat, Work In Progress and Scottish Champion Hurdle fourth, Handiwork, have all raced in much better class.
Brave Spartacus is weeks away from his 10th birthday and Dan Skelton has expressed concern about the ground for Work In Progress (Ennistown and Sky Khan have also scored only on a sound surface).
Local trainer Steve Gollings has been very quiet, apart from Handiwork’s adventures on the Flat. The five-year-old is fit and classy, and has always looked in need of this trip. Richard Johnson booked, and 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 10, except ante-post bet)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) SIR DES CHAMPS (12.55 Thurles)
BET 5pts win CLOUDY BOB (1.30 Market Rasen)
BET 6pts win MILES TO MEMPHIS (1.50 Wincanton)
BET 3pts win and place HANDIWORK (2.05 Market Rasen)
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BET (to win 100): 2.8pts win OLD GUARD (36.0 Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham, March)
ANTE-POST (already bet to win 50): 3.2pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (16.5 Champion Chase, Cheltenham, March)
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