THANKYOU, SIR! 4 NAPS OUT OF 5: Daqman has done it again! He made it four naps out of five and eight out of the last 12 with a banker bet on Sir Des Champs (WON 11-10) at Thurles yesterday, his third successive winning banker. His naps form (145 points profit) is now 113211011101, with the winners as follows:
WON 4-6 Arctic Fire
WON 11-4 Salubrious
WON 1-3 Modus
WON 4-11 Master Jake
WON 2-1 Altior
WON 4-5 Le Mercurey
WON 11-4 Shady Gift
WON 11-10 Sir Des Champs
GOLD BANKER DAY AT ASCOT: If the handicapper is right to give a once-raced novice a 147 rating, he must be a near-certainty in a modest class-3 hurdle at Ascot this afternoon, and Daqman hopes to land a Gold Banker.
ASCOT: KILCREA CRACKER OF A GOLD BANKER BET
1.00 Ascot In only three years this race has produced, long term, a Hennessy winner and an Aintree Sefton Hurdle winner, trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddles What’s The Scoop today.
1.30 Ascot El Namoose is Flat bred and is not without his physical problems, though the only runner with chase form. Thomas Brown was well above these on hurdles ratings.
2.05 Ascot It will be hard to catch Kilcrea Vale who, on his Rules debut, was 26 lengths in front of a horse which had placed behind quality performers Pallasator (on the Flat) and Glingerburn (over hurdles).
That resulted in what trainer Nicky Henderson told the Racing Post is a ‘mind-boggling’ handicap mark (147), which is why he is taking this conditions route.
Alan King’s Wishing And Hoping is a big, rangy sort, yet quickened well at Plumpton, and that gives him the benefit of a recent outing, but Kilcrea looks one for buying money. Gold banker.
2.40 Ascot Tenor Nivernais won first time back over this kind of trip at Kempton a year or so ago in a class 3, whereas Ballinvarrig won a class 2 at Kempton in December after a good second on his return. Yet Tenor Nivernais is the one giving the weight to the other.
On the other hand you could say that Tenor Nivernais is a hidden horse in that he was hiked to Graded racing after Kempton and is back to class 3 for the first time since: I took 4.3 in the BETDAQ orange as a first position on the race.
Squire Trelawney looks well in at the foot of the handicap but he’s a glass horse who goes well fresh then loses his form, so unlikely to repeat his recent Wincanton win. You could also say that of Back To Bracka.
3.15 Ascot Charlie Longsdon, who won this last year with a 10-1 shot, has two at much shorter odds this time, both with strong jockeys.
But Bob Tucker is a once-a-year winner who gets a hard 12lb knock for winning at Worcester and Loose Chips has been able to win only a military race in two years of trying.
Dual class-4 winner Sands Cove has never been able to carry extra into class 3, and Caulfields Venture races off his highest ever mark.
Last years runner-up Fruity O’Rooney is 13 in a few weeks’ time and without success since the Spring of 2014.
It all points to Desert Joe (7.4 taken on BETDAQ), who didn’t have the pace for the tight turning track at Market Rasen on his return but will be a different proposition, galloping at these third-raters.
If I were at the races, I’d keep my bins on Achille (5.9), a well-bred Dom Alco five-year-old with a future over fences. I’m expecting to take him out of this race but I need a ‘just in case’ bet on him today.. After all, Venetia’s team is in fine form.
3.50 Ascot Desert Joe’s yard is very keen on Winner Massagot (4.1 with every thing else easy to back) and is hoping they’ve got this right, after his recent withdrawal because of soft ground. It certainly looks like drying to good-to-soft, around 9.0 on the ‘pogo stick.’
TRICKY HAYDOCK: SHADOW OVER 6.0 MARDALE
1.55 Haydock A tricky meeting under a rain cloud. Welsh Shadow divided sequence winner Yanworth and a 10-lengths winner in third when runner-up on the last day.
Flat-bred Altruism is useful but his form doesn’t amount to anything like that, and there’s a question-mark over today’s soft ground, with further rain in the north-west this morning.
But Mardale looks more than a match for Welsh Shadow. She beat Smart Talk at Hexham, and that one has scored twice since. Lady Yeats, a winner since and another runner today, was third.
Champion Bumper fourth Welsh Shadow seems to have a touch of class and could well justify odds on but I thought Mardale’s 6.0 offers on BETDAQ were too big. Instead of saving on Welsh Shadow, I’ll slip him into my Daq Multiples.
2.30 Haydock That 6.0 in what seemed a two-horse race looks all the better when you have a choice here of unbeaten horses with only 0.90 points separating them, even though layers are generous and the BETDAQ orange adds up to only 102%.
Silsol would be nearly a stone clear of Minella Rocco, if this were a hurdle and, though ‘Rocco’ gets weight, he meets a rival with recent winning form, whereas he has been absent 266 days.
3.05 Haydock Yet another novices’ race on a hard day of guesswork for the punter, and by this time it could be quite a bog out there. Save your money for Saturday. Like Arnie, I’ll be back!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked at BETDAQ offers to win 20 points, except the banker at SP)
BET 4pts win MARDALE (1.55 Haydock)
GOLD BANKER: 30 points win (nap) KILCREA VALE (2.05 Ascot)
BET 6pts win TENOR NIVERNAIS (2.40 Ascot)
BET 4pts win ACHILLE and 3pts win DESERT JOE (3.15 Ascot)
BET 6pts win WINNER MASSAGOT (3.50 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 2pts win treble Thomas Brown (1.30 Ascot), Welsh Shadow (1.55 Haydock), Kilcrea Vale (2.05 Ascot)
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