AUSTRALIAN OPEN PREVIEW: It’s always sunny somewhere, and several of the world’s best golfers have followed the sun Down Under this week to compete in the prestigious Australian Open, which will once again be held at the Australian Golf Club in Sydney.

World number 1 Jordan Spieth prevailed here last year and he’s back to defend his title, but if you want a piece of young Spieth you’d better be prepared to pay, as he’s currently trading at the uncomfortably short price of 2.84 at BETDAQ. Other big names in the field include Adam Scott (7.6), Lee Westwood (37.0), and Darren Clarke (365.0), and of course there’s the usual contingent of Australian professionals who should be very capable of contending on this golf course.

We’ve had some success handicapping these events on the other side of the world, very nearly hitting on Andy Sullivan in Dubai last week at 82.0, so I’m quite optimistic about our selections this week. They are as follows:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

John Senden (24.0)- The 2006 Australian Open champ has long been one of the world’s best ball-strikers and he played some great golf last week, finishing second at the Australian Masters. He finished 23rd in this event last year but he’s reportedly very fond of the Australian Golf Club, telling an Aussie golf magazine last month that he feels it suits his game as well as any course on the schedule. The question with Senden is always whether he’ll putt well enough to win, but he rolled it pretty well last week (21st in the field in Strokes Gained– Putting) and his ball-striking is such that he always (well, frequently) finds himself in the mix. A good value at the current price, I think.

Brett Rumford (76.0)- Well we’ve got the ball-striking covered with Senden, and now we’ve got the short game master in Rumford. If you could combine the two you’d probably have the perfect golfer, but we’ll have to settle for backing both individually this week. Rumford was on his game last week, finishing 6th at the Australian Masters after getting a boost from a 2nd-round 64. He’s also demonstrated the ability to get around the Australian Golf Club, finishing 3rd in this event last year as he was one of only two players to shoot par or better in all four rounds. Rumford has won all over the world, and he’s certainly capable of getting the job done this week. At a price like 76.0, he’s worth a look.

Rod Pampling (94.0)- The veteran Pampling has traveled the world plying his trade since losing his PGA Tour status following the 2013 season, but he always seems to play well in his home country and he certainly has good memories at this tournament after finishing solo second here last year. He was in the mix at last week’s Australian Masters before a final round 76, and he was on the right side of par in two recent “wraparound” PGA Tour events– the Sanderson Farms Championship and the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. It’s a bit of a longshot, no doubt, but at nearly 100/1 I think Pampling is certainly worth a small bet.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Jordan Spieth (1.5) vs. Adam Scott (2.74)

Look, I know Jordan Spieth is the world’s number 1 player and I realize that he won this event by six shots last year. Still, can that possibly justify this price in a head-to-head matchup against Scott?? I mean, it’s not like Scott has been struggling– he finished 5th at last week’s Australian Masters and probably would have won had it not been for a 3rd-round 77, and he was runner-up at the CIMB Classic earlier this month. These guys are nearly a coin-flip this week, I believe. Recommendation: Scott at 2.74

Peter Senior (1.91) vs. Nicolas Colsaerts (1.91)

The big-hitting Colsaerts was in diapers when Senior was in his prime, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll beat the old man this week. After all, Senior shocked the world by winning the Australian Masters last week, beating a field full of young flat-bellies and becoming the oldest winner in the tournament’s history. He’s 56 years old now but he still hits the ball far enough to compete at the highest level, and his confidence is obviously sky-high at the moment. I’m taking a chance with the feel-good play here. Recommendation: Senior at 1.91


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