CAN 20-1 DAQMAN STRIKE AGAIN? Big-race king Daqman, who already leads Pricewise 8-1 in feature-race success after only a few days of the National Hunt season, won the Hennessy Gold Cup at 20-1 a year ago. Can he do the trick again? His overall lead over Pricewise is 254-96 after four seasons’ tipping.
ABC GUIDE WITH THE XX FACTOR: Daqman always starts his analysis with a detailed stats-and-facts assessment of every big-race runner, and here it is today, his Hennessy ABC guide with a difference: his X-factor black marks at least one of the fancied horses and a double XX signifies a definite lay.
‘PACE OF KAUTO STAR AND STAMINA OF DENMAN’
3.00 Newbury, Saturday (Hennessy Gold Cup) The defection of Coneygree shoots Saphir Du Rheu to the top of the handicap, but does it bring his chances crashing down?
The raising of the weights lifts seven horses (Cloudy Too down) from out of the long handicap, but do lightweights do well?
Daqman checks out the stats from the last dozen Hennessy results and returns this ABCD verdict. He finds horses of a double-figure age are very rare winners and, put together with another black-mark – stable out of form – creates an XX Factor, which suggests that two of the runners are lays.
A 10 of the last 12 winners were aged six or seven
B 10 of the 12 were rated 147 or higher
C 9 of the 12 had had just one or no handicap-chase run
D 11 of the 12 were placed on their last completed start
X Black mark: Stable out of form
X Black Mark: horses aged 10 or over (no winner since 1981)
ABCD Saphir Du Rheu
Has the pace of Kauto Star and the stamina of Denman (quote unquote, Paul Nicholls, trainer). If, as Nicholls says, this is Ditcheat’s Great Gold Hope for Cheltenham 2016, he would have to go close in this, despite being left with topweight on Saturday after the defection of Coneygree, the Gold Cup holder.
His transition to chasing had a stop-go start in the manner of the stable’s Big Buck’s and, like that one did, he might have stayed on the World Hurdle scene had he won it in March but, after scoring over CD at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle, the ground was too fast for him in the big one and he finished second.
ABD The Young Master
A sequence of four in a row including the Ascot Silver Cup just before Christmas last year but disappointed in the RSA in March. Started back well, second to Saphir Du Rheu, after making the running. Welsh National probable and long-term Aintree hope for burgeoning Bath yard.
AB If In Doubt
Great Yorkshire winner, despite not always fluent, and RSA fifth to Don Poli, making late ground up the Cheltenham hill, then disappointing when pulled up in the Irish Grand National, probably one race too many at the time. On the scene here, if he can get his jumping together.
AB Splash Of Ginge
Top-hurdle winner on the Newbury course in 2014 and seemed set for the chasing big time when winning a Grade 3 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but five races since have all been flops, albeit every one in Graded company and this is his first handicap since that January jaunt.
ACD Urano
Just touched off in the Kerry National in September but the handicapper says he has improved only 7lb in seven races since his fourth in the Ladbrokes Ireland Chase at Punchestown in the Spring.
A Ned Stark
Four wins out of five, a hurdle and three chases on soft, with a Grade-2 chase success at Wetherby setting him up for Cheltenham as favourite in a Grade-3 handicap but he was outrun on the fast ground. Not given a hard time on his reappearance.
BCD Smad Place
Ned Stark’s stablemate, 15lb his superior after slamming Fingal Bay at Kempton earlier this month. Won a solid novice chase on the Newbury course at this time in February, 2014, and runner-up in the RSA, probably left the 2014-15 season behind when fifth in the Hennessy without a prep at only 6-1.
BDX Bobs Worth
Mandarin in 1961 – that’s even before the days of Arkle – and Diamond Edge (1981) are the last two 10-year-olds to win the Hennessy. Bobs Worth took it in 2012 when only seven and followed up in the Gold Cup of 2013. Recent winning return over hurdles and 27lb lower than his high-flying days over fences.
BDX Fox Appeal
Goes well at Ascot (third in their gold cup recently) but only 2-15 steeplechase chase strike-rate and has the same mark now that he had over fences at the start of 2014.
B Houblon Des Obeaux
Venetia Williams did her usual November plunder, prepping this one at Ascot and convincing the handicapper to drop him 3lb., which puts him a pound below his mark when runner-up in last year’s Hennessy. He’s 11lb better for little more than two lengths with The Young Master on Ascot Silver Cup form of December, 2014.
B The Druids Nephew
The Young Master’s stablemate was a Grade-3 winner at the Cheltenham Festival. As a result, he started only 10-1 for the Grand National, going well in the lead when he slithered out of the race four from home. Now 15lb higher than when seventh in the Hennessy last season.
BXX The Giant Bolster
An oh-so-nearly horse, aggressive jumper at his best, twice placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But not much to show for the last year and a half, and needs to bounce back, with form when fresh now tailed off to 114300.
BXX First Lieutenant
Like The Giant Bolster, he’s 11 on January 1, and his trainer, Mouse Morris, is having a modest time right now: his last five runners, still standing, have finished a total of 207 lengths off the leader. Third in the 2012 Hennessy but just one win since.
CD Fingal Bay
Pertemps Final winner over hurdles at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival, switched back from novice-chasing. Never physically robust, he scoped badly after pulling up in the Hennessy a year ago when backed down to 6-1 off 9lb higher mark. Returned to form, runner-up to Smad Place, on the last day and potential to go well if staying sound.
DX Benbens
Often close up in big handicaps, including Scottish National third, and back to form in Aintree veterans’ race, his first win since March, 2014. Needs too many others to underperform.
D Theatre Guide
Third in the 2013 Hennessy and only small-field conditions-race success since. Trainer in form but needs more than a fitness prompt if this one is to act like a leading player.
X Al Co
Raised only a few pounds for winning the Scottish Grand National in April, 2014, but little form since and only seventh in the same race this year. Disappointing.
MODUS LOOKS A BANKER AGAIN
12.30 Newbury A cracking race to start the Hennessy meeting. Although it looks a three horse race on paper, they are three good ones.
Charmix won nicely last time at Wetherby following a disappointing Bumper debut in May. He may want a bit further in time and has a chance but will need to improve considerably to trouble to top two.
See The World was an impressive winner of a Wincanton Bumper last season despite not having any inclination to keep on a straight line. Aidan Coleman did an impressive job that day to just get him home with the partnership intact never mind win. He’s clearly got bags of ability and Emma Lavelle says that he hasn’t done anything like that in all his schooling since. He poses the biggest threat but is probably best watched on his hurdling debut.
Modus was impressive on his debut this season and was one of my winning Bankers this month. He moved through to the lead with a lot of ease and, when shaken up, won very easy, going away at the finish.
Although he may be another that needs slightly further in time, he should have the measure of these on the best of his Bumper form.
2.10 Newbury (The Worcester Novices Chase) Another really interesting race. Again there are three that standout at the bottom of the card.
Un Temps Pour Tout has a big reputation having won the French Champion Hurdle. He was a big money purchase a few years back and probably hasn’t fully lived up to the pricetag. He was a good second on his chase debut.
Value At Risk is a very exciting one going over fences. Having won with consummate ease at Newbury on his Hurdling debut he was beaten twice at Cheltenham. He is definitely one that will improve when going over fences but this is a tough ask first time up.
Beast Of Burden looks the value to me. He was going very well when unseating Paul Townend two out last time. It wasn’t the worst mistake in the world, but for a Novice it would have all happened too quick for him and he lost his footing on landing. He travelled very well that day and looked like he was about to overtake the eventual winner with a slight loosening of the reins.
At the time of writing, he is showing 4.6 on the BETDAQ orange so I’m going to look for 4.8 or even 5.0 if the Lay side moves out any further. A Graded race like this should have plenty of Layers, so I wouldn’t be afraid to ask a little more.
2.45 Newbury This one looks tricky but I’m going to take a chance.
Globalisation won nicely first time out over fences but looks like he will need a trip. Today’s race is a stepping stone to further marathon races and he is worth taking a chance on that he will be open to more improvement.
Nitrogen is an intriguing one. A half brother to Best Mate and he’s very lightly raced. It’s difficult to know what he could be and is best watched today but he may be one for the notebook.
Of the others, it’s hard to make a case for them with no Chasing form. Globalisation has a chase win under his belt already so it’s easier to quantify. It’s very possible that the likes of Warriors Tale, Chosen Well or Aigle De la See could be better over fences but there is better value elsewhere.
3.15 Newbury (Gerry Fielden Hurdle) My final bet is another really nice race. San Benedeto is the jolly but having won quite easily over further last week, I would suspect a longer trip would give him a better chance.
Ch’Tibello is worth keeping an eye on in the betting. He’s without a UK Hurdles win so far but won in France last April. Off top weight this could be difficult for him.
The one that I see with the most improvement at the weights is Sternrubin for Messrs Hobbs & Johnson. He won by a massive 15 lengths in an Exeter Maiden Hurdle in May but prior to that was second four times to some very decent horses, most notably Lil Rockerfeller who is now rated 146.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9 points on strenght, 10pts for a Banker)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) MODUS (12.30 Newbury)
BET 4pts win BEAST OF BURDEN (2.10 Newbury)
BET 2pts win and place GLOBALISATION (2.45 Newbury)
BET 6pts win STERNRUBIN (3.15 Newbury)
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