NFL PLAYOFFS: Well, we couldn’t have a much better lineup for Championship Sunday, could we? First we get Manning/Brady XVII, a matchup that seemed incredibly unlikely a month ago when Peyton was tethered to the Denver bench, but now takes on historic significance. This is probably the final game in a rivalry that has defined pro football over the past 15 years, and everything is on the line. Manning is diminished, but he has the better defense and Denver is at home. If he could summon forth one more heroic performance it could alter history’s perception of him as a player who, while great, was not “the greatest” come playoff time. Brady and Belichick, meanwhile, will be looking to permanently vanquish the man who has unquestionably been their most formidable foe over the years. If it was a Hollywood script, you’d roll your eyes on account of it being too corny and unrealistic.
The NFC title game may not have all the history and sentimentality of Manning/Brady XVII, but it’s a dream matchup nonetheless, as Carolina and Arizona were indisputably the two best teams in the conference throughout the regular season. The Cards were the only team in the league to rank in the top-5 in both total offense and total defense, but the way the Panthers have been rolling lately it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re a 3-point favorite at BETDAQ and have been a popular public bet at sportsbooks around the world.
Here’s a closer look at both games:
*ATS= against the spread (handicap)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DENVER BRONCOS Sunday 20:05 GMT
BETDAQ Line: New England -3 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
New England: LB Jamie Collins (questionable– back), G Tre Jackson (questionable– knee)
Denver: None
Recent Trends
Patriots are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference championship games
Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games
Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games
The OVER is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Denver’s last 10 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Denver’s last 5 playoff games
The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams
Prediction
Denver has the superior defense and Brady has never had much luck in the Mile High City, where he’s 2-6 over the course of his career. That being said, Brady is still at (or near) the peak of his powers and he has his two favorite targets– Edelman and Gronkowski– back in the lineup. Edelman missed New England’s 30-24 overtime loss to Denver in Week 12, and Gronk was lost late in that game. Still, Brady managed to throw for 280 yards and 3 TDs against the vaunted Broncos D, so there’s no reason to think he won’t be extremely productive on Sunday. Last week he threw for 303 yards against a tough Kansas City defense, with Edelman and Gronkowski combining for 17 receptions for 183 yards and two touchdowns. The question, then, is whether Manning and the Denver offense will be able to keep pace. Manning has only thrown one touchdown at home all season and he certainly didn’t produce a “turn back the clock” performance in the win over Pittsburgh last week, throwing for just 222 yards and looking very much like an athletically-limited “game manager” type. Frankly, I don’t believe that type of performance will be good enough this Sunday. The Pats are better than people realize defensively, and we know what to expect from Brady and the offense: clinical precision. I understand why the home ‘dog would be tempting in a situation like this, but I think New England gets the job done here. Recommended Bets: New England -3 at 1.96, New England ML at 1.64
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS Sunday 23:40 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Carolina -3 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Arizona: RB David Johnson (questionable– toe)
Carolina: DE Jared Allen (doubtful– foot)
Recent Trends
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC opponents
Panthers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games
The OVER is 5-1 in Arizona’s last 6 playoff games
The UNDER is 6-1 in Arizona’s last 7 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in Carolina’s last 6 home games
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Prediction
This one is difficult for me: look, I genuinely believe Arizona is the better team. I really do. They were better on both sides of the ball this season (don’t just take may word for it, check the stats) and they unquestionably have more firepower on offense. After all, the Cards led the NFL in total offense this year and they were extremely balanced, averaging nearly 290 yards per game through the air and 120 ypg on the ground. The Carolina offense, meanwhile, has essentially been the Cam Newton Show, and while Newton is a tremendous player and probably deserves the MVP award that he’s favored to win, he’ll be facing the NFL’s 5th-ranked defense and will likely be forced to air it out, as the Cards blitz more than any team in the league and are expected to crowd the box. Can Newton’s substandard receiving corps win 1-on-1 battles against the likes of Patrick Peterson and Jerraud Powers? Suffice to say, I have my doubts. So why, then, is this one so difficult for me to pick? It’s simply because I’ve been wrong about Carolina all year. From Week 1 right up until last week, when I made the unfortunate decision to back Seattle, the Panthers have proven to be better than I give them credit for. They have a superb defense, they’re physical up front, and Cam Newton has been absolutely tremendous. So there, I said it. Now leave me alone to bet against them in peace. Recommended Bets: Arizona +3 at 1.95, Arizona ML at 2.4
