66-1 DOUBLE OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman yesterday completed a 66-1 double over Pricewise when he took the Great Yorkshire with Ziga Boy at 8-1 at Doncaster, and the Cheltenham Trophy with Annacotty at 13-2 among six winning bets. It was yet another 2-0 win to bring the scores to Daqman 24, Pricewise 8 (overall 270-104)
13-2 HIT WAS 15.5 ON BETDAQ: But the story of Daqman’s winners was the massive value on BETDAQ, with Annacotty (WON 13-2) featured in the market Mover column showing 15.5 in to 9.8 in morning exchanges (see below). Daqman’s feature-race successes were all better bets on BETDAQ.
LAYERS UP THE CREEK AT 9-1: By the time the racing started on Channel 4, Daqman was ahead of the game with three returns, including 9-1 winner McCabe Creek, between 12.30 and 1.30. No wonder he found a brief encounter on a train the other day to be enlightening (see below). His wins yesterday, taking his profit to 56 points in two days, were:
WON 9-1 McCabe Creek (from 11.9 BETDAQ )
WON 8-1 Ziga Boy (from 10.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 13-2 Annacotty (from 15.5 BETDAQ)
WON (place) Waldorf Salad (2nd 11-1 from 13.5 on BETDAQ)
WON (lay) Turn Over Sivola (unplaced 9-2)
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack (banker)
ANOTHER HUGE STRIKE FOR A BETDAQ MOVER
Willie Mullins? Take a back seat. Paul Nicholls? The best men in the yard have gone. Nicky Henderson? Yesterday’s man.
So, after his clean sweep last weekend, Willie Mullins learns his lesson with a drubbing this weekend, but who was there to teach him?
This time it was Alan King, with a fabulous four-timer (I was on two of them) but, regularly, over the weeks, the punter’s friend has been Philip Hobbs.
I followed Mullins blind in the conditions races; I worried about Nicholls; I snubbed Henderson.
But I knew I could consistently make a profit from mining the Minehead diamonds of Philip Hobbs and yesterday Kingy opened the Barbury Castle treasure chest.
What is the difference between odds-on shots and their big-odds success? Handicaps, handicaps, handicaps. Professional punters used to hate them because conditions races are level weights for the most part, so rating the winners is easier.
But, rating the value, you just have to go with handicaps now that there is exchange betting. You sometimes have to search for liquidity but the search for winners is easy: follow the shrewd handicap trainers like Hobbs and King, and follow the BETDAQ movers.
Annacotty yesterday was flagged all day. What was the PP Chase winner doing at a huge 15.5 in the morning? I was happy to back him again at 9.8. That was the Move that we showed on this site.
But still they plundered the King contender; as Alan said to the Channel-4 interviewers. ‘We’re doing all right, aren’t we?’ I’ll say we are, using the royal plural.
THEY THINK IT’S ALL OVER: IT HASN’T STARTED
On the subject of Channel-4: I think there are many answers to their demise; i don’t know one in particular. But I know a man who does, or at least I overheard a conversation on the train the other day.
Viewer A: Do you watch racing on Channel-4?
Viewer B: Nah; they start late and finish early, and in between they tell you after each race what you needed to know before it started.
Daqman’s research team moves into action: yesterday Channel 4 missed the first three races at Doncaster, starting late with the 2.05, and missed the first two at Cheltenham, starting late at 1.50.
They skipped the last race at Cheltenham and the last two at Donny. Eight races not on their card (why bother to switch channels halfway through your Saturday afternoon)! As for what meat there was in the sandwich, that’s subjective.
But I do hope to see a better allocation when the new ITV terrestrial coverage goes on air in 2017. Ch4 is living in the past, when they were led by the nose – by Peter Jones of the Tote – into schedule slavery to Scoop6.
The consequence is that they follow the Scoop6 pattern but virtually ignore the more-widely-spread races of the Scoop6 itself (don’t they, Fred) because it’s now commercial. Result: they have no raison d’etre.
Second convo, this time in my office yesterday after the Gold Cup favourite, Djakadam, tipped up at Cheltenham.
Viewer A: I don’t think he measured his stride at all!
Viewer B: Do you mean Ruby or the horse?
Viewer A: The horse. Ruby was asleep at the time.
JESSICA’S HIGH-ODDS HOPES WITH STRATOS
2.00 Punchestown Short prices (15-8 to 6-1) but not a single winning favourite in the decade, say the stats of this race.
That’s a worry for those expecting the Willie Mullins bandwagon to right itself and roll merrily on to Cheltenham.
Second snag with a plunge on hot-pot Myska is that you could be taking a cold shower from another of three Willie Mullins’ runners in the field of five.
Thirdly, the stable has only won it once in the decade and last year contrived to get the first and second favourites beaten in a six-runner race!
2.30 Punchestown Nine times out of 10 the winner comes from the bottom half of the handicap, with Jessica Harrington the winningmost trainer.
The same stable’s Oscar Sam is on a roll but can he step up to 3m? The same applies to Ruby Walsh’s mount, Rossvoss.
Neither has stamina in his pedigree, but then would you have guessed that, bred from mile winners, 1m 2f at most, Rossvoss would score on soft-heavy over 22f?
High Stratos is also Flat-bred but has caught the eye staying on over 20f here at Punchestown the last twice, so I went for a Harrington dutch, taking 12.0 High Stratos and 4.8 Oscar Sam.
No doubt about Not For Burning’s stamina but has the handicapper knocked her out for the time being; she struggled a bit with a 7lb rise on the last day.
Mydor is 18lb higher than when scoring back to back at this time last year.
ONCE MORE WITH FELIX! HE’S MY BANKER
3.00 Punchestown (Tied Cottage Chase) I thought this might deserve one of those epithets which we’ll read every day at Cheltenham: match of the year so far!
Yes, I know it’s a bit of a veterans’ race these days but Felix Yonger versus Flemenstar looked hot, until I saw the market.
It seems few punters were converted to a Flemenstar revival by his Leopardstown win over Christmas (last year’s winner of this 21 lengths behind) and it was 5.8 bar the favourite.
So it is that I hope to restore my bankers back to health (I’ll be doing an update this next week) by taking the 77-100 Felix Yonger at BETDAQ best offers this morning, but staking just a fifth of that (and leaving some for you).
3.30 Punchestown (Cross-Country) This is even more of a veterans’ rally, though the trend in banks races generally is for younger and younger horses, with no winners of this one over the age of eight for three seasons now.
Sure enough king of the cross-country scene, Enda Bolger (six wins in 10 years in this) has two youngsters involved today.
Love Rory has already won the Risk Of Thunder banks chase twice and was the moral in November’s renewal, second giving weight to the winner.
Ballyboker Bridge was behind that day but turned the tables when Love Rory unseated at Chjeltenham.
Cantlow comes strongly into it but I’ll stick with Love Rory and add a pound on 30.0 chance Blackthorn Prince who stumbled at a vital time when making headway in the Risk of Thunder race.
THEY SAY RIVERSIDE CITY STAYS ALL DAY
4.05 Punchestown (Grand National Trial) The last two winners of this clash today, with Embracing Change 13lb higher and Folsom Blue up a stone.
Both carried their penalties into big-race places: Folsom Blue in the PP Chase and Embracing Change in the Ladbrokes Ireland Chase here at Punchestown.
Yet the youngsters are again given the market support: Baie Des Iles from Bonny Kate and Riverside City.
I can’t have Baie Des Iles, whose reputation hinges on an amateurs’ race; Bonny Kate has never raced at this trip, and her breeding says she shouldn’t.
But Riverside City (5.3 offers) is well in with Folsom Blue on Leopardstown form over Christmas and ‘stays all day’ (quote unquote Racing Post racereader at Navan).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win OSCAR SAM and 1.75pts win and place HIGH STRATOS (2.30 Punchestown)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FELIX YONGER (3.00 Punchestown)
BET 10pts win LOVE RORY and 1pt win and place BLACKTHORN PRINCE (3.30 Punchestown)
BET 5pts win RIVERSIDE CIT Y (4.05 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt trebles and 1pt acca MYSKA (2.00 Punchestown), GOOD VIBRATION (2.15 Sedgefield), FELIX YONGER (3.00 Punchestown), MIXBOY (3.15 Sedgefield)
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